[ArquimedezPozo]

Division 1

Moving Up
The New York Giants - 95-59, 1st in the D1 East
The Giants were an offensive juggernaut last season, and won 95 games en route to the Championship Series, where they lost to El Paso in a six game slugfest. They addressed their biggest weakness - pitching - head on this offseason, adding three of the biggest pitchers on the market: future Hall of Fame closer Bob Paul, 2038 D2 Pitcher of the Year Rich Buxkemper, and ace SP Willie Rodriguez. All have question marks - Paul’s age, Buxkemper’s likely regression, Rodriguez’s transition to D1 competition - but taken as a whole they raise New York’s pitching level significantly. Alongside a John Sayre who is not likely to be beset with the kind of bad luck that defined his season last year, these three could help make New York an even more formidable opponent in 2039. Oh, and they’ll also get a full season of 1B prospect Luis Nazario

Seattle Steelheads - 83-71, 3rd in the D1 West
Seattle spent big in the offseason, with a payroll that now ranks fourth in D1, and they’re ready to make their move. They have a strong, young core built around RF Mike Hood, C Roger Alvarado, 1B Adam Haney, and CF Frank Gonzales. The re-signed Matt Galante long-term, and added RF Greg Allen to the mix. There is understandable concern about the departure of Hector Razo, however, and the effect that will have on the pitching staff. Still, this club will score runs aplenty, and in a D1 West that was otherwise quiet this offseason, that might be enough.

Moving Down
El Paso Sun Kings - 85-69, 1st in the D1 West
El Paso didn’t lose much in the offseason, but they also didn’t gain much, essentially standing pat. El Paso is likely at or near their spending limit right now, with the second highest payroll in D1 and a few larger contracts to aging players like Eduardo Garcia and Pat Templin, but they also have a need to lock up younger players - Joe Rison is heading toward free agency in the next couple years, and Brian Castrovinci’s clock is now ticking. They have some good young prospects on the horizon, but El Paso is a good pick for some regression this season, especially now that they’ve lost John Belhumeur for the year.

Brooklyn Dodgers - 82-72, 2nd in D1 East
Brooklyn was very quiet this offseason as well, making no major moves at all. In fact, last year’s team is essentially intact and a year older - not a bad thing for a lineup that features a lot of young talent (Carson Prince is just 28!) but hardly ideal for a rotation whose two biggest pieces are on the wrong side of 30. Matt O’Brien is healthy again after his shortened Pitcher of the Year campaign, and Jason Blanche is ready to take another run after his record setting year, but apart from the Ks, Blanche was showing his age some last season, clearly slowing down toward the end of the year. This rotation is one injury away from disaster, and the inaction, in this case, is regression.

Dark Horse
Chicago Whales - 72-82, 4th in D1 East
Chicago has been reloading and rebuilding for a couple of years, and are now ready to compete with an exciting core of young players. 23 year olf 1B Trevor Snyder showed flashes of greatness last year, and is growing into his power - he’ll never be a home run champ, but he has an amazing batting eye and should be a 25-30 homer guy who hits for high average and is constantly on base. 24 year old LF Todd Hughes, too, looks like a star on the rise. The most exciting young player, though, is future ace Armando Orozco, just 25, who had a 4.8 WAR season last year and will likely be even better in this one. Chicago maybe isn’t as deep as they want to be, but they have a great young core to build around, and if a few things go right they could be in the thick of things.

MVP Prediction: It’s really hard to bet against one of either Carson Prince or Brian Castrovinci here, as their duel last year was something to watch. Both are young, complete hitters with power and prowess to spare. But let’s go out on a limb instead and predict Mike Hood, who has been nearly as good in Seattle and is primed for a big age 26 season as the biggest star in a loaded Seattle lineup.

Pitcher of the Year Prediction: Matt O’Brien is healthy again and could repeat, and the prospect of Willie Rodriguez joining D1 and getting New York run support is enticing, but Armando Orozco in Chicago is about to light the world on fire. He will challenge, and quite possibly win.

Rookie of the Year Prediction: There are stunningly few promising rookies on D1 rosters to start the season, so this year’s Rookie of the Year may not have even put on a major league uniform yet. There are some promising players knocking on the door: Seattle SS prospect Carlos Ibarra should see an early call-up, probably to play second, and will make noise. Similarly, LAA CF prospect Brian Weisman is ready; scouts rave about every aspect of his game except his patience. And Chicago’s SS prospect Robby Towne is about to add to their exciting young club. He’s probably not quite ready yet, but also keep your eye on Steve Polk, NYG pitching prospect: the Giants have bulked up on arms, but there’s still room for a new entry in that rotation, and Polk could be it.

Division 2

Moving Up
Ft. Worth Cats - 73-81, 4th in D2 West
The Cats have had a fascinating couple of seasons - after relegation brought them to Division 2 for the second time, they rebounded to win the 2037 D2 Championship over a superior Stars team. But to start 2038, they collapsed: at the All-Star Break they were in dead last in the Conference at 35-56. Things clicked in the back half of the season, however, and over those last two months the Cats were as good as anyone in the West, the Mounties included, going 34-20 in August and September to climb nearly to .500. Building on a strong young core including 2038 Rookie of the Year Jesse Moeller - a star in waiting - the Cats added two frontline starters in Ian Weaver and Hector Razo, stabilizing their rotation and bullpen. This is a club that has a shot in the Conference; if they seize it, they’ll be back in Division 1 next year.

Baltimore Terrapins - 88-66, 1st in D2 East
Baltimore won the East, and nearly the Championship, unexpectedly last season, but they’re not resting on those laurels. Baltimore spent big this offseason, prying Dustin Jennings from Boston to play shortstop and making a blockbuster deal with Washington for Corey Spry, who will join Randy Putnam in a strong rotation that will also feature CF Wayne Richard, trying his hand at starting pitching. Baltimore also added C Dave Judge, though that’s a questionable move. Still, the addition of Spry alone makes them better; adding Jennings might make them unbeatable.

Moving Down
Vancouver Mounties - 95-59, 1st in D2 West
The Mounties were a great team last year, but have lost a lot of the talent that made them. Rich Buxkemper, the out-of-nowhere Pitcher of the Year, is now in D1 with New York. 1B John Witherspoon, who led the team in homers, is in Monterrey. Mat Riddle signed with Calgary. Tony Hines went to Philly. Vancouver still boasts some strong players, including 3B Leo Rodriguez who had a fantastic season last year highlighted by a superhuman postseason performance, but it’s hard to ignore so many high profile departures.

Boston Bees - 86-68, 3rd in D2 East
The Bees didn’t get a ton worse overall, with the only big move a shift from the excellent Dustin Jennings at second to Chris McLaughlin, who is not quite Jennings’ defensive equal and doesn’t have close to his bat. But of course in a Conference where its two closest competitors, the Terrapins and Stars, both added, standing still is a loss. They have some promising young players - Paul Ratner, for example - but there’s not much more room for growth here, especially as their best prospects remain as much as a year away from contributing.

Dark Horse
Houston Buffaloes - 82-72, 2nd in D2 West
Houston didn’t get a lot of attention last year, but they finished second to Vancouver in the West, with an 82-72 record built on a fairly young and exciting team. Justice Slaton should be mentioned in the same breath as Roger Alvarado in terms of his promise - he could easily have won the Gold Glove at C last season, and his bat will play anywhere, with a good mix of contact, power, and patience. 2B/SS prospect Aaron Ferguson has made the big club but is rumored to be starting on the bench: expect him to supplant Jeff Schultz at short relatively fast. Bill Tucker and Doug Frey are complete bats in their prime. Bill Vernon gives speed, discipline, and gap power from the leadoff spot. Are they likely to finish in first? No. But there’s a world where they could, so don’t be surprised if they at least threaten.

MVP Prediction: Ft. Worth’s Jesse Moeller is going to be a star, but he’s just 21, so his MVP seasons are likely a couple of years away. Omar Juarez won the award last year, but it was a career year and he seems unlikely to repeat it. Leo Rodriguez is a legitimate threat in his age 28 season for sure, and is probably where the smart money is. Wayne Richard, though, could top him: Richard is a great fielder, an explosive hitter, and as complete a player as you’ll find in D2 - plus, he has convinced team brass to let him give pitching another go as well. In his age 26 season, he’s poised for a major breakout.

Pitcher of the Year Prediction: Josh Argo was the preseason pick last season, and then Rich Buxkemper emerged out of nowhere to take it, with Argo finishing in third. He will undoubtedly garner votes again this year, but there are new pitchers to contend with in D2 such as Hector Razo, Corey Spry, and Ian Weaver. Razo will be the popular pick, but keep an eye on Ian Weaver: he’s been quietly excellent for years, and will now be able to show off his stuff on a D2 stage.

Rookie of the Year Prediction: If Houston does the right thing and gives the shortstop position over to Aaron Ferguson early, he will run with it. Ferguson has every tool but power, and will be a solid defensive player who can get on base several ways - and once he’s on base, he can take another. If not, Montreal RP Malik Rowell, or Baltimore pitching prospect Randy Curry, could also be options.

Division 3

Moving Up
Miami Amigos - 88-66, 2nd in D3 East
There was shockingly little in terms of additions in D3 this offseason, so by process of elimination Miami, who didn’t lose anyone of consequence and added an intriguing rehab project in Kyle DuBell, are it. They will also see some improvement from younger players - keep an eye on SP Todd Bennett, who pitched well in a little more than half a season with Miami last year and should slot into a rotation headed by Paul Herrin and featuring Dylan Powers and Brett Calderon.

Calgary Outlaws - 58-96, 6th in D3 West
On some level… well, Calgary can’t get much worse, so they may as well improve. On another, they surprised a lot of people and signed former Vancouver starter Mat Riddle to a reasonable deal. Riddle was a good contributor to a championship club last year, and while he’s not likely to win many awards he will help Calgary. It’s hard to see this club escaping the basement, but if they do, Riddle will have been a factor.

Moving Down
Salt Lake Gulls - 80-74, 2nd in D3 West
Salt Lake came close last year almost entirely on the strength of a booming offense. But this offseason, they gutted that strength: while they held on to MVP Ralph Keough, they jettisoned much of his supporting cast, including LF Chris Griebe, 1B Paul Geisler, and DH Nate Madden. They gained a solid starter in Edgar Troche, but he’s far from enough to make up for that loss. To make matters worse, the Gulls tried to replace some of that production by signing Tony Hines, who has been called a clubhouse cancer and who is roundly disliked in Division 2. D3 West was a very hard conference to predict last year, but a slide by Salt Lake is a pretty good bet.

Memphis Blues - 78-76, 4th in D3 East
Memphis didn’t do much this offseason except say goodbye to longtime ace Ian Weaver, who signed with Ft. Worth in the offseason. Weaver has been the rock of the Memphis franchise since he came up in 2028, and the hole he leaves is a big one. Ron Ibach is left alone in the Memphis rotation now, and the rest of the club is not likely to be able to sustain a winning record this year.

Dark Horse
Atlanta Crackers - 87-67, 3rd in D3 East
It’s unclear if you can really call Atlanta a dark horse after finishing with 87 wins last year, but they ended on a sour note having closed in on Nashville close to the end of the season before a major fade, and they did finish dead last in 2037. Former MVP Sam Stanton had a “down” year last year, and a rebound would put a charge into the Crackers. Hiram Reznicek was the quietest 45 homer guy in the game, and Jeremy Figone can flat out rake. In fact, this lineup is stacked. The question will be the pitching: Ted Dodds now holds the Hits Allowed records in two different Divisions, and Ken Magda showed signs of decline last year. Jim Mayer was an outside Pitcher of the Year candidate, though, and Tommy Boles was solid as usual. Keep a close eye on young starter Eli Willim, penciled in to open the year in the rotation for the first time: lots of upside, though there are long term questions about whether he’ll be better served as a bullpen arm.

MVP Prediction: A bounce-back season feels in the cards for Sam Stanton, one of the only hitters for whom a 5 WAR, .288/.377/.520, 34 homer season could be seen as a disappointment. He’s too good a hitter to decline at 28. Ralph Keough could do it too, but he’s going to have a lot less protection in that Salt Lake Lineup.

Pitcher of the Year Prediction: It would be a dereliction of duty to predict anyone but Paul Herrin here, after he became just the second pitcher in Federation history to win four straight Pitcher of the Year Awards. The only other to do it? Oliver Chase, also in D3, for the Las Vegas 51s. Chase is the only pitcher to accomplish another feat Herrin will try to match this year - he’s the only pitcher with five POtYs.

Rookie of the Year Prediction: The inside track on this probably goes to San Francisco starter - and Oakland native - Jared Kraft, a lefty who is breaking camp in the Seals’ rotation. Kraft has a unique six-pitch arsenal, and has advanced ability with all six pitches, though his best are his slider and his knuckle curve. He will still have kinks to work out on a major league stage, and his control has been as yet spotty at times, but his ceiling is extremely high.

Division 4

Moving Up
Pittsburgh Crawfords - 81-73, 1st in D4 East
Pittsburgh went all-in this offseason, hoping to capitalize on their surprise first place finish in a weak Conference and catapult themselves into their first promotion. If they can take the Conference again, it’ll happen. To give them that chance, GM Danny Thomas was a buyer in the offseason for the first time anyone can remember. They traded for slugger Donovan Bryant from Denver, and signed an intriguing international FA catcher in Ghi-Cheng Miao. Joel Ortiz and Karunamaya Nema are now experienced postseason pitchers, and are still developing. Chris Scott will step into the rotation this year as well. Pittsburgh is as well positioned as anyone in the Federation’s weakest division, and a bold offseason could easily pay major dividends.

St. Louis Browns - 85-69, 2nd in D4 West
St. Louis added a bona-fide leadoff man in Chris Griebe this offseason, which should jumpstart an offense that struggled last year. As some younger players mature, St. Louis will have a shot at cracking a Conference that looks winnable, as Phoenix’s window may be closing.

Moving Down
Phoenix Firebirds - 89-65, 1st in D4 West
Phoenix didn’t exactly lose much, though seeing Bob Paul walk away a second time can’t feel good. Instead, there’s regression to be had - no one expects Matt Armstrong to have that kind of season again, and Brandon Murrell is starting to show his age. They lack a real slugger, and while they have some young arms who are going to continue to establish themselves, the Firebirds dynasty may come to a close this year, just in time for them to be promoted.

Washington Senators - 71-83, 5th in D4 East
Washington didn’t have much to lose, but they lost it when they traded Corey Spry to Baltimore for two mid-range prospects. The deal was panned almost immediately: Spry should have been signable for Washington, but even if not, one would think a better return would have been possible. Spry was the only real bright spot for the Senators, who may now collapse to the point of challenging Havana for last place.

Dark Horse
Indianapolis Clowns - 72-82, 4th in D4 East
This is a pick made more out of a lack of options than anything else, but one thing Indianapolis will always have is pitching, and when you have pitching anything is possible. Nate Mefford, the all-time strikeouts leader, is slowing, and Aaron Cottrell hasn’t looked the same since his MVP/POtY season in 2037. But the Clowns have young knuckleballer Greg Smith, and they have Mike Downing and Jason Stanfill and Eric Olson. If they can score a few runs, they’ll be a contender.

MVP Prediction: Donovan Bryant hit 43 homers against D1 pitching last season, and will now step to the plate in D4. He’s 29 and in his prime. No, he’d never come close to those power numbers before, but even if he declines a bit in power he’ll still provide massive value for Pittsburgh.

Pitcher of the Year Prediction: Corey Spry is gone, Nate Mefford is slowing down, and Aaron Cottrell fell on hard times last year. So here’s a bold prediction: this is the year we will see the torch passed to a new ace in Indianapolis: Greg Smith. Smith, a knuckleballer who can also throw a get-me-over splitter that is very tough on hitters who expect the knuckler, has strong control and great stuff. He was already outstanding last year, and will take a huge step forward in 2039.

Rookie of the Year Prediction: Albuquerque can’t stop talking about catching prospect Jonathan Ozbolt, who has good contact, power, and patience and is a solid if unspectacular defender behind the plate. As a bonus, he can run - good speed for a catcher, and good instincts on the basepaths. He’s just 23, and will be a fun player to watch. Keep an eye as well on Paul Bolden: his development for the Tigers made losing Willie Rodriguez a little easier to stomach.