[ArquimedezPozo]

Nashville Sounds, 95-59, 786 runs scored (2), 641 runs allowed (4)

Nashville was the class of the Division pretty much wire-to-wire: the last time they weren’t alone in first place was May 12, when Miami briefly took a share of the lead, and the last time they weren’t in first all all was in the season’s first week. Since then, they’ve been anywhere from two to eleven games up, and after surviving a brief surge by Atlanta at the start of September they essentially never looked back. Nashville featured the East’s best offense and a solid run prevention unit led by Andres Orozco. The pitching wasn’t quite as good as the top line might suggest, but there’s no other team in the Division that was as well rounded as Nashville, and they’re the heavy favorites.

Top position players:

• Bobby Cook, LF - Cook is the engine for this offense, which is otherwise comprised of solid but not spectacular hitters. Cook, however, hit .277 while leading D3 in OBP (.392) and slugging .555 with 35 homers. His 5.4 WAR was second only to likely MVP Ralph Keough, while his 158 wRC+ tied Keough for second behind only Columbus’s Ricky Ponce. All of that is to say he’s the best offensive player who will appear in this series, and it’s not too close.
• Jonathan Cosner, 1B - The D3 Batting Champ, Cosner is the second best offensive player in this series. Cosner hit .329 on the season, with a .371 OBP and .527 slugging out of the two spot. The longtime Nashville 1B combines average and power, and hit three homers in a game against Austin in May.
• Mel Irving, CF - one of two likely Hall of Famers on this team (the other being SS Ivan Castillo), Irving has spent the last three seasons in Nashville showing off his exceptional defensive ability - Irving has 11 Gold Gloves at center, and the next best total is 8. Even at age 35, he remains a decent hitter, too, with a 111 wRC+ in 2038, and a .274/.350/.417 line with 15 homers. Irving crossed the 70 WAR threshold this season. A five-time Championship Series winner with Baltimore, Irving authored arguably the greatest Series moment in NABF history when he homered with two strikes, down a run, to give Baltimore a walk-off win against Vancouver in Game 7 of the 2026 D2 Championship Series.

Top pitchers:

• Andres Orozco, SP - Orozco’s 2.54 ERA was tops in D3 this year, though it was dependent on a .256 BABIP. Orozco doesn’t strike out many batters - fewer than 19% of the batters he faced went down via the K. He has good control, though, and while he can be homer-prone he has still managed a 4.00 FIP, below the league average. This was very much a breakout year for Orozco, who hadn’t been a full-time starter in a couple seasons, and while there are legitimate fears he will regress in 2039, that magic could last two more starts.
• Isaiah Phelps, CL - Phelps will get plenty of Reliever of the Year support this season. If he wins it, it would be his second straight after coming to Nashville from Montreal in a trade following the 2036 season. Phelps is not a huge K guy, striking out around 29% of batters in 2038, but he has one of the lowest HR rates in the Division, and allowed just five over nearly 90 innings of work while saving a D3 best 48 games in 49 chances. In fact, he was a perfect 38 for 28 until he allowed an unearned run on a single against Miami in early September.
• Matthew Boyd, SP - Boyd rejoined Nashville’s rotation full time this year after a season spent largely in the bullpen, and gave Nashville what they needed: innings. Boyd threw 209 innings of essentially league-average ball, striking out 28% of batters and walking 7.2%. His biggest weakness was the long ball - he was second only to San Francisco’s Ryan Roland with 36 homers allowed.

St. Paul Saints, 81-73, 657 runs scored (8), 674 runs allowed (8)

The overachieving Saints survived a bizarre D3 West to make it here, their first Championship Series appearance since a D2 championship in 2020. At risk now is their perfect 5/5 Series record - their stellar run of four straight between 2009-2012, and the 2020 win. St. Paul lost several of its best players to injury for large chunks of 2038, which set them back, but that’s only part of their story. It will not be an easy road for a team that allowed more runs than it scored and played 6 games better than Pythagoras would suggest. They are, to say the least, heavy underdogs on paper, but they’ve shown this year that paper doesn’t win ballgames.

Top position players:

• Steve Mershon, LF - Mershon was great when healthy, but was seemingly never healthy. A PCL strain late in 2037 caused recurring knee issues for Mershon this season, but the big injury was a forearm strain that lingered, keeping him out of the lineup for the better part of a month. Still, when healthy he mashed: .316/.396/.529 with 18 homers. He’s healthy headed into this series, and could be a difference-maker.
• Sam Tracy, CF - Tracy missed six weeks with an oblique strain right in the middle of the season, and then just after returning got dealt to St. Paul at the deadline from Albuquerque, where he came up. Tracy was a sparkplug for the Saints down the stretch, hitting .342/.378/.495 with 16 doubles and nine steals against just two time caught (his season total ended up at 22-5, about 82%). Despite the injury, this was Tracy’s best season since he won D3 Rookie of the Year for the Dukes in 2035, as he put together 3.7 WAR in a little more than ⅔ of a season.
• Kevin Walker, 1B - Walker is one of St. Paul’s youngest starters, and they believe he will be a capable hitter over his career, combining contact and power. Walker is not the most patient hitter - he’s well known for swinging at anything, though he’s also well-known for usually hitting it hard. He strikes out rarely, and walks even more rarely, but has displayed pop early on. St. Paul doesn’t have a strong offense, but it will improve as Walker does.

Top pitchers:

• John McNayr, SP - the Saints leader in most pitching categories this season, McNayr excelled in his second Minnesota season, with a 3.25 ERA and nearly matching 3.46 FIP. McNayr is a heavy-ball pitcher who induces lots of grounders and mostly keeps the ball in the park - in 213 innings he allowed just 13 homers. The lefty put up 4.7 WAR this season, a career high.
• Jerry Dudek, SP - Dudek is a strong Rookie of the Year candidate, going 15-13 with a 3.30 ERA and 96 FIP- in his first season in the bigs. The 23 year old has boundless energy and an electric fastball, backed by a nasty sinker, a plus curve, and a changeup that coaches think could become a weapon. Dudek is still occasionally wild, but when he’s on he can shut a lineup down. McNayr had to pitch on the season’s final day to keep St. Paul from a one game playoff, so Dudek will get the Game 1 responsibilities against Orozco.
• Pat Pipkin, CL - Pipkin was St. Paul’s only major offseason acquisition, in a trade with New York. Pipken is a former two time Reliever of the Year winner, but had seen his effectiveness decline in 2036 and especially 2037. It turns out a fresh start did him good, as he became a highly effective closer in St. Paul: over 83 innings, Pipkin saved 42 games with 99 strikeouts and 28 walks, while allowing just 6 home runs. His 2.7 WAR was tied with Phelps and behind only Pedro Llopiz’s incredible season.

Prediction: Nashville in 4 - The Saints had a great run, but they are dramatically overmatched in this series, and it will show. The offense isn’t good enough to pick apart Nashville’s lackluster but functional pitching, and Nashville hitters will be able to take apart the weaker areas of St. Paul’s game. Maybe good outings by Dudek and McNayr extend this to 5 or 6, but picking St. Paul seems like wishcasting. Possible? Sure. Likely? Absolutely not.