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Old 02-22-2023, 03:56 PM   #76
ArquimedezPozo
Minors (Triple A)
 
Join Date: May 2020
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2038 Division 1 Championship Series Preview: New York Giants vs. El Paso Sun Kings

New York Giants: 95-59, 886 runs scored (1), 717 runs allowed (9)

The Giants were an offensive powerhouse who fell just short of their own NABF runs scored record of 895 this year. There are few holes in this lineup, with seven starters at 20 homers or more on the year. Three of their top offensive producers (2B Andrew Fitts, CF Idar Olson, and C Matt Wood) are at positions where defense is more heavily prized, and they have sluggers at the corners too. The weakness all year has been in their pitching; while ace John Sayre has been as good as advertised despite a rough start, it goes downhill fast after that.

Top position players:
  • Andrew Fitts, 2B - Fitts, always a strong performer, took it to another level in 2038 displaying a power/on-base combination he’s never reached before. Fitts hit 35 homers while getting on base at a .424 clip; he’s topped both marks in his career, but has never had a season where he put them together like this. Add in solid if not spectacular second base defense and you get a star who put up 6.5 WAR, good for fourth in D1.
  • Matt Wood, C - Wood had a difficult start to his season but rebounded late to put up strong numbers while maintaining his established defensive and game-calling prowess. Wood, the undisputed team leader, finished the season hitting .297/.398/.563 with 31 homers, 101 RBI and a 5.9 WAR, all of which led D1 aside from homers (rookie Roger Alvarado finished with 32, a record for a rookie C).
  • Mike Burcham, SS - the longtime Giants shortstop had his season interrupted by injury at the end, but finished with 3.7 WAR despite the long layoff, with his usual outstanding defense (Burcham is a four-time Gold Glove winner, most recently in 2036) while hitting .304/.367/.421. Burham stole 30 bases, but was caught a concerning 21 times, a net negative. Still, he’s a threat on the bases, and has been a fearsome table-setter for the game’s best offense this season.

Top pitchers:
  • Jon Sayre, SP - one of the biggest free agent acquisitions of the offseason, Sayre had a dreadful introduction to D1. He got hammered in four April starts, with an ERA over 11, though that was an extreme case of bad luck as opponents managed a .438 BABIP against him - his April FIP was far from good at 5.38, but it wasn’t 11. He improved steadily after that, and finished the season with a 78 FIP-, striking out 30% of the batters he faced and ending, incredibly, with a 6 WAR season. He will get the ball in Game 1.
  • Dustin Storer, CL - Storer has been a steady hand at the back end of the pen, though he was not among the game’s elite closers this year. Walks were a problem for Storer, but he struck out nearly a third of the batters he faced as well, and allowed only 6 home runs in over 60 innings. He finished with 38 saves in 43 chances.
  • Josh Dent, SP - New York’s biggest weakness is evident here, as Dent was by all accounts a league average pitcher this year. His 97 FIP- and 98 ERA+ tell that story, as do his 26 home runs allowed, one of the ten highest totals in D1. Dent has also struggled a bit in recent weeks, and is currently lined up to pitch fourth in the Giants Championship rotation.

El Paso Sun Kings, 85-69, 782 runs scored (2), 632 runs allowed (5)

El Paso, the most storied D1 franchise, is making its 4th straight D1 Championship Series and the 15th in its history - El Paso has won the D1 West in nearly half of the seasons in its history. While the team itself is older (an average age among its starting lineup of 30.5 years), it features one of the best young stars in the game, 1B Brian Castrovinci, who had an all-time great season in his first full year in the majors. The Sun Kings also boast the best starting rotation ERA of any D1 team, though the peripherals are not quite as sunny, and the bullpen has been a persistent issue over the course of the season.

Top position players
  • Brian Castrovinci, 1B - there are great MVP candidates in D1 this year, but Castrovinci’s season is an all-timer. The 24 year old nearly won the Triple Crown, mashing 43 homers and driving in 115 while batting .331 and leading D1 with a .443 OBP. His 8.3 WAR is one of the 25 best single-season marks in D1 history, and if you remove those early years (Cycles 1 and 2) when the league was getting settled and a lot of high WAR seasons were recorded, it ranks seventh. Castrovinci looks like a superstar in the making, and this series is his chance to show the world.
  • Joe Rison, LF - one of the great leadoff hitters in the game, and the other Sun King regular under 30 years old, Rison actually had something of a down year this year, posting his lowest OBP (.382) since his rookie season. He improved at the back end of the year, though, with a combined August/September mark over .400, and he led D1 with 44 stolen bases. His 99 runs scored were third in D1, behind only the Giants’ 1B Roberto Estrada and his teammate Castrovinci, who drove him in a good chunk of those 99 times.
  • Tom Knighton, CF - Knighton has been a quiet team anchor over the Sun Kings’ recent run, putting up strong numbers on both sides of the ball without gaining much notice. Knighton is an accomplished defensive CF, though he’s never gotten recognition for that as he rarely looks like he’s trying - he simply gets to balls. His offensive output might not look like much on the page (.270/.336/.498, 20 homers) but it’s good for a 122 wRC+ and .351 wOBA, and when combined with his defense Knighton was worth 4.2 wins this year, third among position players.

Top pitchers
  • David Matthews, SP - ever since coming over to El Paso in an offseason trade with Kansas City before the 2034 season, Matthews has been one of the club’s most reliable arms. Two things changed to launch him into the position of team ace this year: the first was the uptick in strikeouts in Division 1, which lifted Matthews - never a power pitcher - into more competitive territory, striking out over 20% of the batters he faced. The second was a career-best ground ball rate of .54, which helped bring his BABIP down as El Paso boasts a strong infield defense. As a consequence, his 4.6 WAR and 143 ERA+ were both bests for him in his D1 career, with the latter being an overall career best. Matthews will get the nod in Game 1.
  • John Belhumeur, SP - Belhumeur had an odd but effective season. One of the pitchers who were most revolutionized by D1's strikeout shifts, Belhumeur nearly doubled his career K rate, which had been under 18% before this year but shot up to over 27% in 2038. Belhumeur ended with 231 strikeouts, well back of the lead but more than any D1 pitcher had ever thrown before. He even hurled a no-hitter against Brooklyn in May. He is often wild, walking nearly 9% of batters, and he is notoriously prone to the long ball: only Tijuana's Jayden Jarret gave up more homers (32) than he did (31). But when he's on, he can be devastating, and El Paso is hoping he can do exactly that in Game 2.
  • Jason Bodnar, RP - Bodnar is the club’s bullpen ace, though Adrian Myers is the closer. Bodnar came back to El Paso after a year in Phoenix during which he unlocked some things, most notably a serviceable cutter to add to his fastball/sinker repertoire. Bodnar doesn’t have filthy stuff, but he’s smart and has good control for a reliever, and that has allowed him to give the club over 50 innings of 2.91 FIP work. He could be a weapon in the late innings against a tough NY offense.

Prediction: El Paso in 6 - New York’s pitching deficiencies are much worse than El Paso’s, and the Sun Kings offer a dynamic enough offense to take advantage. And though the regular season doesn’t always matter in the postseason, El Paso won 10 of the team’s 15 matchups this year.
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