Quote:
Originally Posted by David Watts
Exactly. That being said, OOTP has 1 year recalc, 3 year recalc and 5 year recalc. For the life of me, I don't know why Maris would be rated in a way to prevent him reaching or even exceeding 61 when using 1 year recalc. Nor, do I see a reason for Mickey Mantle to be rated to hit more home runs in 61 than Maris when using 1 year recalc. 3 year and 5 year recalc should do exactly what you describe by allowing Maris to come closer to his average hr total without maybe reaching the 61 outlier season.
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As you can imagine, there are always two big problems with baseball simulations.
1) the data model is complex - at a very basic level, there is pitcher vs batter, defense, park and era effects. These things all have to be accounted for a wide variety of events. At a deeper level, there is a muddiness in what modeled baseball events actually represent... are home runs modeled independently, or are they grouped with fly outs and extra base hits. If you do not model accurately, you have a real problem with 2) below.
2) baseball fans are generally very knowledgeable about stats and have a low tolerance for perceived inaccuracies in a simulation. How do you create randomness without excessive variability that would turn away fans? Roger Maris hitting 53, 57, or 62 home runs in 1961 is ok. But 65? That is absurd!