Quote:
Originally Posted by uruguru
It depends. Are you trying to recreate 1961, or are you trying to recreate Roger Maris?
If the former, then Maris should average 61 home runs but the variability of the sim needs to be lessened significantly to avoid the 70-homer seasons that would create in the current engine.
If the latter, then you would model 1961 in the context of Maris's career. You might create a regression line for his power over his career and then see that 1961 was way above that regression line and downplay his power in that season. But in the grand scheme of his career, he should still average out to the same overall career over many simulations.
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Exactly. That being said, OOTP has 1 year recalc, 3 year recalc and 5 year recalc. For the life of me, I don't know why Maris would be rated in a way to prevent him reaching or even exceeding 61 when using 1 year recalc. Nor, do I see a reason for Mickey Mantle to be rated to hit more home runs in 61 than Maris when using 1 year recalc. 3 year and 5 year recalc should do exactly what you describe by allowing Maris to come closer to his average hr total without maybe reaching the 61 outlier season.