Quote:
Originally Posted by David Watts
That begs the question, do you set Norm Cash to never hit higher than say .289? Josh Hamilton no higher than .298?
|
It depends. Are you trying to recreate 1961, or are you trying to recreate Roger Maris?
If the former, then Maris should average 61 home runs but the variability of the sim needs to be lessened significantly to avoid the 70-homer seasons that would create in the current engine.
If the latter, then you would model 1961 in the context of Maris's career. You might create a regression line for his power over his career and then see that 1961 was way above that regression line and downplay his power in that season, trusting that the inherent variability of the sim would still occasionally produce 61-homer seasons. But in the grand scheme of his career, he should still average out to the same overall career over many simulations.