Quote:
Originally Posted by Syd Thrift
I specifically don’t want to know. That’s the point. IRL sometimes guys just suddenly get good and sometimes they just suddenly get bad. Scouts aren’t just random in terms of being able to tell this stuff, they are worse than random chance at noticing sudden changes because of their priors, because that’s how humans work.
My biggest issue with using ratings is that type B errors - where a veteran is only slumping but the scouts think they’re done - never happen. If you look at a vet and who’s hitting poorly and the scout says their ratings are bad, it’s because their ratings are bad. Period. Even type A - where a player is good but the scout thinks they’re only average, and it turns out they’re in fact good now - are extremely rare and basically only caused by an unnoticed TCR (which then gets picked up by the very next report).
People have decided that they don’t want ratings to work that way so… I can’t use ratings.
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Yea…I too wish the “rating” were actually more like real scouting reports and less gamey. Not sure that there’s really an answer I like what you just described though.