Ok I think I might have it figured out. Didn't think I did but I had been stuck on this day since Shesterkin was out there and was looking at signing him but ran into this
So I DID have a bunch of offers out, but it was all extensions (as in already signed for current year). When I simmed to the next day a bunch of them accepted the extensions, and all of a sudden my budget is up to 14 mil.
It appears to be calculating this extension money as money that I can't spend on FA this years while the offer is pending, but when they sign it then calculates it as only being on the books starting next year correctly.
Also with players deals still expiring this year my total salary next year is still less than it is this year so its not like im just going over budget next year either.
Unfortunately Shesterkin also signed by the time I simmed forward