New player time!
July 1st International Signing: Jesus Meza, $2.5M Bonus
Meza’s defensive profile feels like it’s going to limit him to 2B - unless his arm develops a little more, he looks like a fringey SS to me. But those contact & power ratings, plus decent speed, profile as a strong offensive 2B. With the Marlins being tight on cash, there was no way of getting any of the top of the class guys with their $5M signing bonuses, so getting a 70 potential prospect in Meza at exactly half the IFA cap is a big win for Miami. With him already passing his 17th birthday, it’s thought he’ll be able to keep up in the DSL down the stretch this summer so he’ll go straight there instead of incubating in the International Complex.
2022 Amatuer Draft Results
1-6: Zach Neto, SS/3B, Campbell University
Neto played shortstop in college, but profiles more as a 3B in the majors. Solid bat-to-ball skills with good power - more doubles than homers, but the bat will play. He’s advanced for his age and will probably start in full-season ball with a hopeful ETA of late 2023.
3-85: Ray Bermudez, OF, American Heritage HS
High school players are always tough to project out, but Bermudez has a strong contact skill with a good eye and good discipline. Not a ton of power, and his defensive profile will need a little work to stick in center, but he’s got some strong upside.
4-122: Trenton Shaw, RHP, DeSoto HS
Solid fastball/slider, with the potential to have a plus curveball/changeup combo. High-school pitchers are always a big gamble, but a 4th rounder with 1st/2nd round potential is a gamble to take.
5-142: Jake Brooks, RHP, UCLA
Brooks is your typical college pitcher draftee. The ceiling is a little lower, but the floor is much higher - he’s not too far from being able to pass as a 5th starter, with a little more ceiling above him. He pitches to contact and will need a strong defense behind him, but that control will help get him to the majors if he keeps putting it all together.
Miami’s 2nd round pick, Sal Stewart, is a high school 3B prospect with 75 contact and 70 power potential, but Miami doesn’t have enough money to pry him out of his commitment to Vanderbilt. They’ll get a compensatory 2nd rounder in the 2023 draft.
July news:
July 9th: Bryan De La Cruz returned to the IL with a herniated disc in his back. The prognosis is 4 weeks off before he can get back into baseball activities; Jesus Sanchez will return to playing center every day and 25 year old JD Orr will get the call up from Pensacola. Orr hasn’t done much with Double-A pitching (.184/.282/.263 in 131 PAs with 10 SBs) but the injury bug has also bitten Jacksonville’s outfield - plus, it makes more sense to bring up a guy like Orr to grab the spare ABs every week instead of a true prospect (like JJ Bleday) who could be getting everyday playing time in Triple-A.
July 13th: This is a big blow - after having to be removed from the July 10th loss against the Pirates, Jazz Chisholm Jr was diagnosed with a broken kneecap and his 2022 season is over, after a .237/.335/.390 line with 5 HR, 35 RBI, and 7 SB with a 105 OPS+. Jon Berti is now your everyday second baseman, and Yoenis Cespedes (.266/.307/.502 with 14 HRs in 266 Triple-A PAs) will get his first MLB action since 2020 as a corner OF/DH substitute and first man up if Jesus Aguilar or Garrett Cooper get traded.
July 16th: Traded RHP Anthony Bass & 1B Marcus Chiu to Boston for 2B Yolmer Sanchez & OF Gabriel Guerrero
Anthony Bass is 34 and has a team option for $3M for 2023 - he’s probably too old for the current Marlins core, even if they’re overachieving currently. He’s put up a 1.54 ERA in 41 IP with 17 BB & 48 Ks. Analytics thought he was getting a little lucky, though, and probably was more of a 3.00ish ERA guy. Boston happily picked him up and sent back a strong defensive 2B with a better track record at the plate than anyone currently capable of playing the keystone in Miami, plus Guerrero, a post-hype prospect with an okay bat and strong defense in the outfield. Chiu is a 25 year old, 1B-only prospect hitting .221 in Double-A who helped the deal get over the finish line for the Red Sox.
July 18th: Traded C Christian Bethancourt to Cleveland for UT Ernie Clement
Bethancourt was that waiver wire pickup around Opening Day but didn’t pan out as a backup catcher (.158/.163/.211 in 80 PAs). Willians Astudillo isn’t a good defensive catcher but he can hold it down in the second half. Clement, meanwhile, fills in the utility hole created by pushing Jon Berti & Joey Wendle into the everyday lineup.
July 20th: Claimed RHP Philips Valdez off waivers from Boston
Valdez was waived off the Red Sox’ 40-man roster after the Anthony Bass acquisition. He’s a few years younger than Bass (30), with 70-grade movement and a strong predilection for ground balls. The thing that’s kept him from success in the big leagues so far is his control - if he can get that sorted out, he’ll be a high-leverage reliever with huge upside.
July 24th: Sixto Sanchez came out of his start early with a sore elbow, and is headed to the 15-day IL out of an abundance of precaution. Sanchez has been pretty steady for the Marlins since coming back from his injury this past May, but Elieser Hernandez has been strong in Triple-A and will get another shot at sticking in the MLB this time.
July 26th: Traded SS Miguel Rojas to Los Angeles (AL) for IF Luis Rengifo, OF Orlando Martinez, and RHP Mark Appel
Rojas is 33, owed $5.5M this year with a team option for $4.5M next, and has been struggling this year - .234/.303/.296 with just OK defense. He goes west to the Angels, who send back 25 year old Luis Rengifo (.326/.397/.425 in Triple-A this year), 24 year old Orlando Martinez (.281/.353/.542 with 12 HR in 171 PAs in Triple-A), and 31 year old Mark Appel (former 1st overall pick hoping to rebound after a short retirement). Rengifo will get some run to audition as next year’s SS as the season winds down.
July 27th: Traded 1B Jesus Aguilar to Tampa Bay for LHP Jacob Lopez, RHP Calvin Faucher, and UT Matt Dyer
Aguilar (32) was the Marlins’ lone All-Star this season, but his salary is going to be tough to justify. $7.3M this year, with a team option for $8.5M next year for a guy hitting .266/.340/.448 with 11 HR in 285 PAs. He goes to the Rays for a trio of prospects, headlined by #68 overall prospect Jacob Lopez, a lefty with a 70 curveball, 65 slider, and 60 fastball. Lopez had a 4.46 ERA in 10 starts for Triple-A Durham, with 59 Ks and 24 BB in 68.2 innings pitched. Faucher is a righty groundball pitcher with a strong sinker/cutter pairing that plays better in relief than starting, which Tampa had bounced him between this year at Triple-A. He comes over with a 4.38 ERA and 108 Ks in 74 IP. Dyer is a super sub who came to Tampa for Rich Hill last season; he’s struggled in his transition from High-A to Double-A this year but the 4th rounder from 2020 profiles as a righty Joey Wendle-type.
July 2022 Record: 14-14
The Marlins held serve for the most part this month, keeping their heads above .500 while starting to fade out of the playoff races.
A tough run into the All-Star break threatened to drop the Marlins below .500 on the year, but they came back with a couple series wins before the Mets called their number walking into the end of July.
The bats are still bad, the pitching however is creeping back towards top 5 in a lot of categories. Their Pythagorean pace more or less held steady, as they’re now 3 games on the lucky side of the ledger.
Long list of guys getting into games for July, with all the trades and injuries causing a ton of churn. Some of the recent call-ups have come out of the gate hot - even with limited PAs, it’s nice to see that 4 of the top 5 batters by OPS for July are guys new to the team. Yoenis Cespedes is probably the most surprising of them all, as he has shown his former MVP-like pace in his 36 ABs since his recall. Jorge Soler continues being a confounding bat, as he struggles to make contact but sends it to the moon when he makes some. Catcher is becoming a problem - even though Bethancourt is gone, Astudillo hasn’t done much with the PAs he’s been getting as a backup, and Jacob Stallings has been pretty middling at the dish.
Year-to-date:
I feel like I’ve barely talked about Avisail Garcia this season, and that’s not entirely heartening for a guy who was Miami’s biggest free-agent signing last season. He hasn’t been awful, just aggressively mediocre. Need to see more out of him as the second half progresses to justify that contract.
The rotation stepped up big-time in July. Jesus Luzardo, Pablo Lopez, and even the Sixto Sanchez/Elieser Herenandez combo at #4 all had an amazing month of July. Trevor Rogers struggled some, but was mostly unlucky. Speaking of unlucky, Sandy Alcantara dealing with a .378 BABIP is making it tough for him to put up good numbers, as his ghastly 6.25 ERA for July can attest to.
The bullpen has really been a strength for the Marlins this year - Anthony Bass was shutting everyone down before his chips were cashed in, but the Marlins were able to do that because Dylan Floro & Tanner Scott have had the 8th & 9th innings locked down. Tom Cosgrove has been incredibly solid since being picked up on waivers - striking out a batter per inning, keeping his walks tho, and working to a 2.41 ERA in 22 games. On the other hand, Richard Bleier has been a major disappointment, despite Don Mattingly’s insistence on throwing him out there constantly (he’s appeared in 49 of the Marlins’ 102 games so far!) Love the low walks and the lower homers, but he hasn’t been able to limite solid contact and keep the ball out of play. Cole Sulser is also another disappointment - after a solid 2021, his 4.56 ERA in 39.1 IP is really a step back. He’ll need to start making it happen if he wants to keep his job going forward.