[Bub13]

Arbitration awards come in, as below:

RP Brad Cahill -- wanted 1.2M ... got 862k
SP Daniel Croft -- wanted 1.25M ... got 900k
RP Justin Schechter -- wanted and got 1.37M (we offered 1.3)
3B Jesus Calderin -- wanted and got 4.75M (we offered 3.8)
RP Jordan Ruiz -- wanted 1.87M ... got 1.5M
OF Erik Bennetsen -- wanted and got 4.04M (we offered 3.7)
RP Nate Kearns -- wanted and got 5.4M (we offered 4.8)
RP Manny Reyes -- wanted 1.25M ... got 735k
C Jamie Collins -- wanted and got 1.6M (we offered 1.4)
RP Yoshi Watanabe -- wanted and got 1.2M (we offered 900k)

OF Joe Lynn declined our 13M qualifying offer and will go to free agency. Supplemental pick here we come!

Our current salaries total $177.6M. The voles in accounting say we *should* be at $160M, if we want to maximize profit. Thing is, I'm not worried about that, nor about our "mere" projected $8.6M profit, well below what our owners expect. Why not? Because they've budgeted $10M for International Amateur FAs, but we're spending zero because of my uncontrolled binge last summer; plus there's $6M to spend on the draft, which I've never approached before. So there's a little over $10M back for you, you greedy bastards. (I will say that the real trouble looks to land on my head in 2059, when we're projected a $39M budget shortfall, thanks in large part to player salaries finally outpacing our total budget. Huh. So we'd better win now is what I'm hearing...)

......

December 2056

It took over a week after the official start to free agency to see some action, but finally some recognizable names went off the board. Over a five-day period starting on the 8th, here are the guys who will go from ecsatic signee to financial millstone before the end of the decade:

...SP Nick Light, 30: NYY $204M/7yrs. This is a great addition if they bring in some quality bats too. So far, crickets, but it's early.
...SP Conor MacLeod, 32: PHI 139/5. The one thing Philly needed was pitching. Way to go, guys.
...SP Tim Mitchell, 32: PHI 30/2. Another one? Okay, the Phillies are now your NL frontrunners. Depending on how many relievers the Dodgers add, of course.
...SP Jose Sedillo, 29: NYM 157/6. The Mets are terrible and not getting any better? Um, okay then.
...C Juan Espinoza, 31: DET 91/6. Top catcher goes to a top AL rival. Probably an overpayment, but a position of need for the Tigers.
...CL Bob Harrison, 36: BOS 5/1. Good addition and term, but they really need offense in a big way in the Hub.
...SS Ryan Boers, 29: CIN 297/8. The Reds haven't had a player this good at short since Barry Larkin. Calling it now: CIN v PHI for NL Championship.
...OF Nate Forrester, 26: MIL 256/8. A lotta cash, but a breakthrough signing for the Brewers. Has earned over 27 WAR the last four seasons.
...SS Francisco Vilon, 38: LAD 70/3. This moves Silver Slugger winner Rich Stoneback to DH, but Villon's noodle arm makes that questionable. Big power bat tho.
...P Eric Gast, 28: BKN 3.2/1. Small signing but a sneaky-good one for the improving Robins. Gast has toiled quietly in the SD pen for four years but looks ready to bring his high-control game to the BKN rotation.
...3B Dave Rivera, 36: PIT 40/2. I feel like the Pirates could have spent this money more wisely than on Rivera's aging bat and feet of stone.
...3B Tim Bell, 29: NYM 114/5. The Mets REALLY want out of last place, but Bell's bat has declined his last two years in Montreal.
...2B Alfonso Torres, 31: ARI 128/5. Good move grabbing this perennial all-star. Really remaking their lineup now. (See our section below for more!)
...OF Jordan Coronado, 35: SFG 68/3. The old guy can still hit, but how much better are the mediocre Giants now?
...P Luke Weaver, 35: DET 2/1. Low-risk SP/RP add for the champs, to see if the long-time Chisox starter has anything left. (I say yes.)
...P Jon Carlsen, 37: MIL 18/2. Went from all-star SP to all-star CL for Miami. Great add and adds to a fun 3-way race in the AL Central.
...P Kymani Rhymes, 43: CIN 9/2. He's old and cranky but can still pitch. Another solid addition for the Reds.
...DH Jose Rodriguez, 38: NYY 44/3. You need to build up your offense and you sign an old guy you traded at last season's deadline? FOR THREE YEARS? Oy.
...OF Rick Logston, 29: NYY 177/7. Ok, that's more like it. Logston is a legit star, capable of 40 HR while batting .300. Great addition.

On top of those signings, the Winter Meetings brought a flurry of trades that actually involved honest-to-goodness decent players. To wit:

...Atlanta sells the farm for SS Alex Duran, sending #34 MLB prospect OF Luis Garrido, top-100 OF Joe Schultz, and three other could-be-goods for the veteran shortstop. MY VIEW: Two future OF stars for one year of a mediocre-hitting (but fast and GG-level fielding) guy? Atlanta, I get that your current starter is Ken Davidson and his .193 lifetime batting average, but this is a real overpayment. Duran likely walks next fall anyway, and there were cheaper options on the UFA market. Bad for ATL / good for NYM.
...LA is dealing from a position of strength, but like ATL they overpaid for a player who is at best a #4 OF, Brooklyn's Danny Tavani. Yes, Tavani will steal 30+ bases and play solid defense. But he's a career .215 hitter who may be gone in two years. Going to BKN are three prospects (SS Jim Rankin, P John Cuomo, and 2B Miguel Rivas) who look to become solid lineup regulars, at worst, over the next couple of years. LA is likely filling in the gaps to compete for another title, but this is a lot to pay. MY VIEW: Better for BKN / slight loss for LAD.
...PIT gets swingman Doug Ricks from MIN for 1B/DH prospect Danny Hurtado. Ricks should be okay, but he's not a guy PIT really needs, while Hurtado could end up hitting 40 HR for the Twins. Hurtado hates this trade, btw. MY VIEW: Meh, probably better for MIN. They get to roll the dice on a slugger for the price of a replaceable veteran.
...KC gets veteran RP Steve Jackson from STL for a pair of prospects, including OF Joe Literski. Jackson makes an already formidable bullpen even better, and may also allow the Royals to give a couple of kids their shots at the rotation. Literski looks like a typical modern player: tons of power potential, tons of strikeouts too. MY VIEW: Win for KC, even though one RP doesn't put you into first place in the divison. Very useful guy, however.
...ATL send three more prospects to SEA for 3B Sean Friedman, an overrated power-hitting bat. Only one of the prospects--OF Jose Gutierrez--looks to develop into anything worthwhile, but why grab yet another high-K batter for him? With the NL moving to the DH for 2057, I expect we'll see more deals like this one.
...TEX looks to forestall any decline after losing Boers by sending a passel of prospects to the Chisox for OF/DH Andy Barenberg. The ten-year vet has seen his offense decline quite a bit the last two years, so will be looking for some redemption with a playoff-caliber team. OF Orlondo Gaitan looks like the best of the return for the Sox, a big-armed RF with a decent bat. Barenberg may go UFA after '57 anyway, so a bit of a gamble for the Rangers.
...CIN keeps loading up, acquiring swingman Sam Phipps from KC for four prospects. Phipps will strenghen their pen at least, but did make 21 starts for the Royals in '56, pitching well. 1B/DH Josh Delaney is the only really decent prospect coming to KC, but a potential contact-and-slugging combo worth getting.
...another intersting move for TEX, stealing SP Nick Palmer from TOR for two prospects. Palmer has been okay for the Jays in his five seasons, but with a better lineup and defense behind him could be a real boon for the Rangers rotation. Of the two prospects, only P Sam Rockey looks decent, and only as a possible MR one day.

...the Rule 5 Draft is run on 12/27, and while there weren't many picks (fewer than 20), two teams stood out by making four selections each. San Diego grabbed three outfielders and a first baseman, none of whom stand out but all four could make the opening day roster. Like the Padres, the Braves lost a lot of depth last month (33 players left via free agency), and they took a big step toward trying to rebuild their pitching staff by selecting four hurlers. Two are former Oakland starters--Jim Schwartz and Sean Guerrero. (You may remember Schwartz as a former Cy Young candidate wracked by injuries of late, and now earning minor league money and getting passed around like an old shoe.) Possibly the best of the bunch is prospect reliever Skyler Nein, who's injured until July or so but could quickly move to the top of the bullpen if he fully recovers. We make no selections, and lost no one.

......

So what did we do? By the looks of it so far, nothing. Right? O ye of little faith...

I'll start by saying that I did not follow the plan from the previous post, above. But we were busy, very much so. In chronological order:

FIRST We shopped around 1B Josh Matson, and to no one's surprise there were zero takers. And now he's pissed and untraded.

SECOND I shopped Lucas Tipping and got numerous bites, mostly for overpriced and old relief pitchers and overrated pseudo-prospects. But there were a couple of guys I sniffed around until I got hot and heavy with New Orleans and packed him off to be the Zephyrs new 2B. In return we got a 5th round pick (because I love me some extra draft picks) and IF Alastair Hulse. A 26-year-old LHB who is decidedly average at the plate (with little power, to boot), Hulse is however a dynamite fielder who even rates well in the OF, and brings some prowess on the bases that we've lost with Joe Lynn's departure. Right now though he's very unhappy with the trade, but if he gets a nice fat World Series payout in November maybe that'll ease the sting a bit.

THIRD You want another trade? You got it! In order to clear out some OF space to make room for the emergence of Sayward, Hagemann, et al, I sent last year's #4 Chase Thompson and a trio of prospects to the Yankees for sinkerballing RP John Starkey. A solid guy who's happy in a MR role and keeps the ball out of the outfield, Starkey should help our somewhat-depleted bullpen. And the Yanks are picking up 85% of his $4.2M salary for next year and '58. Now we did give up slugging prospect Rocky DeMars, a NY native who could hit 40 HR (and have 200+ Ks), but may not be healthy enough to ever play a full season. They also took middling prospects OF Dave Maloney and 1B Jerry Burrell, guys way down our depth charts that they asked for, for whatever reason.

FOURTH But wait, there's more! After the White Sox publicly denied they were shopping RP Rene Casaus, I approached them only to get confirmation that yes, they were indeed shopping him around. The 33-year-old former all-star closer hasn't pitched that well in a couple seasons, but I'm taking the chance that he's going to bounce back for us. He's another big-armed groundballer, who's recent issues have been walks and some gopher ball issues (in high-HR parks, however). In return, the Sox get 25-year-old RP Yoshi Watanabe, an international signing from a few years back who's big issues have been...walks and gopher balls. Hmm. The Sox are also retaining 45% of Casaus' salary.

FIFTH Last one, and hold on to your hats. So we added a depth infielder and a couple of vets to hopefully address our bench and some bullpen issues, but what did we do to shake up our often-moribund offense? Glad you asked. How about adding OF Kevin Reynolds from Arizona? You know, the 2056 NL MVP and batting champ? Yeah, that guy! I guess Reynolds told Dback officials he wouldn't re-sign with them after next season, because he went on the trading block in mid-December. How could I not ask about him? He fits just what we need: a solid power-hitter with no weaknesses at the plate, strong RF defense, and a good clubhouse guy. Plus, that National Popularity our owners want! It's a WIN WIN WIN. And don't think we scammed 'zona out of their superstar for a handful of magic beans and some middle relievers, either. We sent five players for the guy, all of whom are useful at the very least: SP Jose Rivera (our #2 from this year); RF Doug Pederson (kind of a Reynolds-lite if he can stay healthy); SS Joey Ulrich (prospect I talked about in our last post); OF Ricky Thompson (20-year-old prospect who does everything but homer); P Jayden Gorham (25 and looks ready for MLB but stuck behind others here). As shocking as this might seem for Arizona fans, it's a trade that makes sense for both teams: we get a jolt to our lineup and meet some delightful owner goals, and the Dbacks get three players who will start right now and two more who could in a year or so. I believe I made them a better and deeper team, so you're welcome guys! Oh, and we add a 3rd round pick because I gotta be me.

We're also chasing a backup catcher through free agency, and will probably have to round out some system-wide depth through that route as well, but that can wait until after the New Year holiday.

......

With the end of the year approaching, are we better than we were just a few weeks ago? I think so: Reynolds doesn't have to have another MVP-caliber season to make this deal a success for us, but he doesn't look likely to regress any at all. My big challenge now will be to sign him long-term, at a rate that doesn't kill us. We anticipate some more money coming off the books next fall, so I think we'll be able to get something done. Reynolds of course fills the void left by trading Pederson, and we do have an opening on the rotation. I intend to let that slot be filled from within. We have three or four guys who I think are ready to take on that challenge and become full-time MLB pitchers, and we'll let spring training show us the way. Granted, none of these candidates have the power arm that Rivera has; but they're all already (or almost already) fully-formed and well-rounded, which I prefer anyway, frankly. And that financial overspending I told you about last time? That's gone too, with shipping out about $40M in Rivera and Pederson. Now, Reynolds' demand may approach that, but we'll cross that bridge in the future...

See you in January.