OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post

Bub13 · 08-10-2022, 08:13 PM

That was a disappointing ending, but I need to remember that for a time this season I didn't think we'd even get that far. Remember when we were two games over .500 and in third place, at the end of June? Good times, huh. But a 55-26 run to close the season atoned for a lot of early sins, and maybe made us a little overconfident heading into the post-season. We did finally break Texas' grip on the division title after a two-year reign, and I'm hopeful--given things beyond my control, actually--that we can make that a regular thing again moving forward. With the calendar about to flip to the fun part of the off-season, I am dreading the annual phone call from our corporate overlords, who usually only pay attention to one number: the bottom line. And that bottom line says we actually lost money, just over $3M, this season, after turning over more than $23M to those crooks last fall. But while we overspent in a couple of areas this year, I anticipate some easy-to-make reductions next year; meaning that even with our (for now) expected rise in player salaries of about $16M, I think we can more than break even next year. More on that later...

......

And the calendar flips, bringing the following team news...

...JJ Simmons executes his contract option, meaning he's with us through '59 and possibly '60 if he uses his PO. I expected this, but kind of hoped he wouldn't do it, as I had tentative plans for his $25M. He had quite a rebound season for us, earning 4.9 WAR and batting .305 while giving us decent defense at third and short. But man, that money...I had such plans, JJ! But the fans love him, and he's hit five of his career 14 home runs in the last two seasons, so maybe he's bulking up in his dotage. He'll be 35 by Opening Day, however...and I can already hear the forges working to cast the anchor that his contract will probably become in another couple of seasons... Just stay healthy, my man!

...Our Cayman Islands overlords send me their usual tut-tuts via attack drone this year, blasting a hole in my newly refurbished seaside villa office. I guess I was putting a window there anyway... Long story short, the budget will go up to a cool $200M next year, with an expected $160M available for player expenses. Thing is, our good friend JJ re-upping means we're on the hook for about $180 mill at the moment, so something isn't adding up yet. And before the mechanical bug departs, I'm left with two terrible goals: re-sign Joe Lynn and acquire a "Nationally popular player." Lynn wants $25M per season guys. Who's going to sign those checks? And I'm happy to grab a national hero...assuming he's a third string catcher making league minimum. Any of them around?

...RP Ramon Sanabria fails to meet his vesting contract, sending him to free agency. After getting him from Philly he was bad, then good, then bad again. He's already 40 and on borrowed time, and now wants over $4M a year going forward. Here's your motorboat, Ramon. Good luck finding the mainland. Aim east.

...two minor league nobodies retire, and only two system-wide staffers are not re-signed. One is Hawaii pitching coach Sam O'Farrell, who's worked his way up our ladder since 2042 and has been with the big club for the past two seasons. But he wants over $800k and I'm not sure I can do that, Dave. So there's one bit of budget trimming accomplished.

...the end of season top prospects list comes out, and we've got four guys in the top ten. First overall is still Jose Villalpando. He'll get a strong shot at cracking the roster--or even the starting lineup--in the spring. Second is AA pitcher Curt Christensen, who only needs a jump in his control to have a shot at the rotation. But he could still start in the bullpen even where his ratings are now, he's that far along. Seventh sits SS Cris Flores, who looks like he's becoming more than the mirage I thought he was this time a year ago. His defense, speed, and gap/power ratings have always been good; but he took a jump this year in contact and plate awareness--or at least his ceilings did. He played in Short A this year but will have to work hard to start higher than A ball next spring. Finally, eighth place goes to pitcher Will McGee, whom I love as a rotational prospect, but who had a tough injury-plagued year. He too is very close to being fully cooked, and could also be a candidate for a spot in the pen is he has a strong spring. Looky here: two cheap options for a pen I need to reconstruct this off-season!

...somehow I find myself with FOURTEEN arbitration cases pending. Sheesh. The good news is nobody looks to be wanting big six-figure numbers. But it's still a lot of dosh, and I may have to make some unwanted decisions and let a few useful odds and ends go begging. We have one UFA-to-be who could get the $13M qualifying offer, Joe Lynn. I'm not sure where I'll go there. Three players on big league deals, all RP--Ramon Sanabria, Marco Mendez, and Jason Morales--will go to free agency, along with a large cruise ship full of minor leaguers. Most of my AA team will need replacing, as will a good 7-8 slots on almost every other team system-wide. It was time for a clean-out anyway! Get out, you slackers! Off my dime!

...across our farm system it was generally a good-news season. Although Wilmington (R) and Androscoggin (AA) finished under .500, everyone else topped that mark. Athens (R) went 35-33, the only other team to miss the playoffs. Poughkeepsie (Short A) went 50-20 and beat Staten Island to take the NY-Penn League championship. Eureka (A) won their division with an 82-58 mark, but fell to High Desert in the opening playoff round. And Santa Barbara (AAA) won 88 games on the way to their fourth straight playoff appearance, ultimately falling in the PCL championship to Memphis in six games.

......

...in MLB news, only a handful of managerial spots have opened up, but ten teams are looking for new GMs. No big names retired or got fired, although Tampa's Jose Morillo retired after five winning seasons, four with 90+ wins.

...there are some big--BIG--names potentially on the market this fall. NL strikeout kings Conor MacLeod and Nick Light, to start. Both should sign for huge money somewhere. The biggest name is probably superstar Texas SS Ryan Boers, the rare player with no weaknesses at all. But anyone would also settle for slugging PHI OF Rick Logston, LA's 2B Alfonso Torres, NOZ RF Jordan Coronado, or TB OF Vance Wise. And maybe, just maybe, Hawaii CF Joe Lynn...

...LEAGUE AWARDS NIGHT, er, WEEK:
AL GOLD GLOVES: P Chris Liles, DET (4th win); C Juan Pizano, KCR (2nd); 1B Elijah Pass, CHW (2nd); 2B Mike McNeill, TEX (3rd); 3B Jose Pantoja, NYY; SS Oscar Garza, HOU (6th); LF Jordan Foots, MIN (5th); CF Melvin Lopez, NYY (3rd); RF Andy Barenberg, CHW (2nd)
NL GOLD GLOVES: P Danny Salgado, SFG; C Drew Stofan, SDP; 1B Joel Potter, BKN; 2B Mike Barbour, AUS; 3B Sergio Pacheco, ATL; SS Ryan Wonderling, POR; LF Jake Morris, ATL (4th); CF Ricky Flores, CHC; RF Shawn Moore, CHC

AL Hoyt Wilhelm: John Rogers, MIL [2.31 ERA, 36 SV, 106 K, 3.1 WAR]
NL Hoyt Wilhelm: John Jackman, CIN [1.41 ERA, 50 SV, 0.89 WHIP, 3.9 WAR]

AL Silver Sluggers: C Phi Thoma, TEX (2nd); 1B Ricky Ayala, MIL; 2B Jorge Arriola, TBR (2nd); 3B Tom Esposito, KCR (2nd); SS Ryan Boers, TEX (5th); LF Chris Bierly, MIA; CF Ryan Lawler, MIN (2nd); RF Tyler Knott, BOS; DH Toshi Shimabukuro, MIA (2nd)
NL Silver Sluggers: C Eduardo Beltran, BKN; 1B Alfonso Contreras, AUS (5th); 2B Alfonso Torres, LAD (5th); 3B Heath Lewellen, CIN (2nd); SS Rich Stoneback, LAD; LF Rick Logston, PHI (3rd); CF Chris Mitchell, CIN (4th); RF Kevin Reynolds, ARI (2nd)

AL Rookie of the Year: 1B Joey Walker, MIL [.264/.334/.564, 49 HR, 3.6 WAR] (5 first place votes for Bill Gamboa, and Hagemann finished 3rd)
NL Rookie of the Year: P Luis Avila, POR [10-2, 2.36, 21 GP, 13 GS, 107 IP, 116 K, 2.3 WAR]

AL Manager of the Year: Tyler Macklin, DET
NL Manager of the Year: Eric van der Zalm, LAD (3rd straight win)

AL Cy Young: Matt Waugh, HAW [20-7, 2.77, 244 IP, 268 K, 8.2 WAR, 6th win, 4th in a row]
NL Cy Young: Nick Light, WAS [14-13, 2.91, 268.2 IP, 311 K, 8.0 WAR, 2nd win ('54)]

AL MVP: SS Ryan Boers, TEX [.316/.414/.599, 9.7 WAR, 42 HR, 107 RBI, 115 R, 2nd win ('54)]
NL MVP: OF Kevin Reynolds, ARI [.307/.437/.622, 9.2 WAR (all 1st place), 43 HR, 116 R, 117 BB]

......

Before moving into free agency, let's try to untangle the status of the big league roster and the decisions we'll have to make. Ideally, I should cut some salary: we're projected to be on the hook for $180M, and that's only if we win all our salary arbitrations; the accountants say we should really spend about $160M on salaries, and $40M on the rest, making up our forthcoming $200M total budget. But...those same accountants project our '57 expenses ($223M) to nearly match our '56 outflow ($222M). How, with salaries climbing by over $20M? First, we spent $40M (yep) on international free agents this summer, and we'll spend zero (against a projected $10M) next year. Plus, I could trim the scouting and developmental budgets by a few million each and save another $5M+. Finally, our media contract is growing, by about $8M. So, creatively speaking, I think we're in pretty good shape even if I do nothing. And what if I do nothing? Is a repeat 97-win season that bad? Yes, we went out quietly in the playoffs, but isn't that always a crap shoot anyway? Maybe treading water is the wise choice this off-season...Anyway, read on to see my thinking across the roster.

Catcher: Jamie Collins had a difficult season, finishing subpar defensively and batting just .230. But he hit 18 HR and batted .280 during that crucial August-September run. He's a lefty and should ideally be in a platoon; he's also arb eligible with an estimated increase from 500k to 1.4M. His partners were Jared Null (.182 in 77 AB) and Bentley Kolb (.200 in 75). Neither impressed at or behind the plate. The next best thing is Jeff Meadors, who figures to be in Short A next year, and has some major holes in his game anyway. He's years away, at best. PROJECTION: Collins returns; I might seek a stout defensive RH platoon option via trade or free agency.

First Base/DH: Jules Medici struggled with injuries but still hit .303 in 116 games. He's obvious to return, and could move to first from DH if needed. Josh Matson led the team with 100 RBI, but while everyone else got hot late in the year, he got cold. Having earned a combined 3.4 WAR in the last three seasons, and making $11M, he's a candidate for departure. But he's 32 and may draw little or no interest league-wide. Like our catchers, there isn't anyone in the system pushing for a role here, but you always figure that just about anyone could play first. PROJECTION: Move one of our glut of infielders (read on) here, go after a name free agent, or throw a kid into the fray? Whichever way, the writing is on the wall for Matson after eight seasons with us, sadly.

Second Base: Injuries and slumps forced us to juggle our infield all year, and three guys saw major time here: Lucas Tipping (70 starts), Jesus Calderin (50), and Bill Gamboa (41). Tipping began the season as the #1, but played his way out of regular time. His defense was subpar and his power and average declined noticeably. At just 25, however, he could bounce back. Calderin is better suited for third, and will be discussed below; he shouldn't figure here in '57. Gamboa was a pleasant surprise, leading the team with 26 home runs and hitting well until he slumped to .258 late. He's the inside runner for next spring, frankly, and although Tipping is on an affordable $2.2M contract, he could be the odd man out. Another consideration is Jake Moore, who's gone from a can't-miss SS prospect to a super-utility backup, even if he doesn't fully realize it yet. His presence could also add to someone's departure. PROJECTION: I'd like Gamboa to hit for a bit more average, but he's otherwise ideally suited for second rather than short (where he started the most). With Moore available, Tipping could be the odd man out, a la Matson at first.

Third Base: Like second, three men rotated here: JJ Simmons (88 starts), Calderin (30), and Bobby Coronado (38). Calderin slumped hard then got injured after being handed the job in camp, but bounced back with a huge second half, finishing with 24 HR and a .310 average. He's also a solid fielder here, much better than his time at second. Coronado got a chance early after a rash of infield injuries, and surprised to hit .321, but was terrible in the field and really doesn't do much else at the plate (just 2 walks in 158 PA, for example). Jake Moore is also well-suited here, but again his bat keeps him in a utility and defensive sub role. The wildcard here is super prospect Jose Villalpando, who, at 20, hit .283 in AAA and did not look out of place in two late starts in Hawaii. He's still developing his power (his ceiling is off the charts good), and with a good camp could really upset the apple cart here. PROJECTION: Even with Villalpando pushing, Calderin stays for now. Perhaps Vill rotates in, and plays some first and DH too. Will he hit enough to save me some cash by not trading for a proven 1B, for example? Coronado will probably start in AAA again, as injury insurance.

Shortstop: More starting madness: Gamboa made 91 starts, JJ Simmons 55, and Moore made 11. None were all that good defensively, with Moore the "best" of the lot. But none were terrible either. With Simmons exercising his option, he's the obvious candidate to start here, even though you feel that he's become a 50-50 option for making it through the entire season. No one else besides Moore is really rated well at short, so a Simmons injury puts us in a defensive hole again. Prospect Cris Flores is starting to look like the real deal as a future star, but he's at best two years away. PROJECTION: It's fan favorite Simmons again, although he's lost a step of range, with Moore the omnipresent utility sub. There's also dark horse prospect Joey Ulrich, who hit .312 in AA and saw some AAA playoff action. His range at short is just adequate, but he's strong in other defensive aspects. He may be better suited as a corner guy, but his lack of power is less than ideal for those positions.

Left Field: Erik Bennetsen is the likely returnee, finishing at .281 with 18 HR in 116 games after a slow start. When healthy and motivated, he's a beast at the plate. Defensively, he rates well but his numbers are subpar. Doug Pederson filled in some (27 starts) late, but was a defensive black hole despite making zero errors. Chase Thompson added 15 starts, and was okay, but didn't really impress in any way. Rookies Jeremy Hagemann, Kyle Kolstad, and Eric Sayward also saw time here. Hagemann looked the best of the three, hitting for power and playing adequate corner defense. Kolstad is by far the best fielder, but his unfortunate combo of high K and bad eye will limit his usefulness as a hitter. Still, he's not truly terrible at the plate. Sayward is well on his way to becoming our next across-the-field utility OF, with the possibility of higher development to come. PROJECTION: Bennetsen figures to start here again, barring something unforeseen happening. Hagemann and Sayward figure as the front runners for the #4 position.

Center Field: It looks like seven-year starter Joe Lynn is pricing himself out of town. When he played plus-plus defense and batted .340, I could see paying him $20M+. But as a .270 hitter with no power? Uh-uh. His defense bounced back (+8.5 ZR, up nearly a dozen points from an awful '55 season), but he hasn't hit much for two seasons now. Brian Hassell saw more time as the season went on, finishing with 42 starts, and while his defense wasn't nearly as good as Lynn's, he hit for the same average but with more power. We will miss Lynn's 40-60 steals per season, however. PROJECTION: Lynn's been a class act, but I can't afford that contract paired with that kind of performance. Hassell gets to show what he's got full-time next year, with Kolstad his likely backup.

Right Field: What to do with Doug Pederson? Three years of high performance (OPS+ of 154, 136, and 151) has been coupled with a rash of injuries, and he's only topped 140 games once. Then this year he was injured AND didn't hit, ending at .234, with 16 HR in 384 AB. And while he has a strong arm, his lack of range renders him, say, less-than-useful in his primary role. Hagemann could figure here, but his arm isn't nearly as good, and his L/R splits might make him better suited in a platoon role. Sayward could also get a look, especially as the RH part of that platoon. PROJECTION: It's Pederson for now, unless something better comes along. I still roll the dice with him, as his usual plate prowess makes up for his lack of defensive ability. One day he'll hit 40 HR; but will it be with Hawaii?

Outfield in General: Currently I'm looking at a Bennetsen/Hassell/Pederson starting trio. Offensively: they're solid. Defensively: no one stands out, and Pederson is decidedly below sea level. The reserve triad of Hagemann/Sayward/Kolstad could all make the club in camp, depending on how the rest of the lineup shakes out. On the farm? No one in AAA looks promising, as slugger Rocky DeMars is too injury prone and strikes out a ton, lessening the impact of his tremendous power potential. One-time promising guys Dave Langford, Collin Blazer, and Andrew Farmer haven't developed as hoped, and interesting prospects Ron LeBarge, Mimum Antar, and Matthew Walburn are all 2-3 years away from consideration. The really intriguing figure here is A ball stud Beau Collins, who whacked a crazy 70 HR in Eureka. He's always had power: now he needs to stop striking out so much to have a chance here. He'll be 22 and in AA next year, and busts his ass every night. If he can ever stop fanning more than 30% of the time, watch out...

Starting Pitching: Everyone stayed healthy and we got good pitching from them all nearly all season. Matt Waugh was Matt Waugh again, winning his 4th Cy Young in his 4th season with us. While he wasn't as consistently dominating as usual, I will have no complaints about a guy who earns 8.2 WAR. Jose Rivera came over from Pittsburgh as the #2 guy, and while he fanned nearly 11 per 9 IP, he suffered with a losing record and a 4.01 ERA. (Our bad OF defense probably hurt him, given his 3.17 FIP and .332 BABIP.) Josh Irvin started slowly but picked up his pace by mid-season, becoming again the groundballs-and-no-walks madman he was in '55. John Loeb was the surprise, winning 19 games from his #5 slot and usually bailing us out with some solid pitching when we weren't hitting. Daniel Croft was okay, his 4.28 ERA the worst of the lot, and his 4.27 FIP suggesting that he was indeed the "worst" of these five. He's the most likely to get pushed in camp. PROJECTION: Gotta figure that Waugh/Rivera/Irvin/Loeb are set. Croft will have the inside track at the #5 slot as the returning vet. But he'll face a strong push from '55 starter Steve Shinnick, and AAA stalwarts Juan Sais, Travis Harris, and Will McGee, as well as fast-rising Curt Christensen, who spent '56 in AA. McGee and Christensen look like the best of the bunch, but with issues: McGee looks fragile, and Christensen may be a year away while he works on his control. Any of these guys could also start in next year's bullpen, as both a cost-saving move and a way to get them big league innings. Should be a fun camp.

Relief Pitching: Nate Kearns had a money season as closer, with a 1.67 ERA and fanning 11.2 per 9 IP. He'll be back. I made several in-season moves here after some early-season horribleness, with additions Ramon Sanabria, Jason Morales, and Justin Schechter all pitching fairly well after their arrivals. But Sanabria stunk it up late, blew up in the playoffs, and wants too much money for a 41-year-old. Likewise, Morales is likely gone, wanting a raise on his $2.1M salary, while I have younger options available to fill his role. Schechter is still under contract, and will also return: he's a hard thrower and will be relied upon with most of our other options not having big power arms. What we also need are injury-free seasons from returners Jordan Ruiz and Brad Cahill, and for Yoshi Watanabe, Manny Reyes, and Joey Mayer to live up to their high potential. Marco Mendez was acquired in the off-season, but was so bad he spent most of the season in AAA and wants too much money for me to even speak to him any longer. He won't be back. Anthony Booker scouts superbly but has never performed and is likely gone, and AAA vets Larry Hensley, Deshawn Card, Gleb Mihalkovsky, and Orlando Silva are failed starters who don't rate that highly as relievers either. AA arms Jason Eicher, Chris Schroeder, and Gio Reed figure to be in AAA next year. PROJECTION: The six-man pen right now looks like Kearns/Ruiz/Cahill/Schechter at the top, based on seniority, with Watanabe, Reyes, and Mayer getting the longest looks. I think I will also go after a big throwing vet with good control to complement the top four.

So assuming no additions, here's my current thinking for next year's roster:

C - Collins
1B - ?
2B - Gamboa
3B - Calderin
SS - Simmons
LF - Bennetsen
CF - Hassell
RF - Pederson
DH - Medici

Bench - ? (C) / Moore (IF) / Villalpando (3B/1B/DH) / Hagemann (OF/1B) / Sayward (OF/1B) / Kolstad (OF)

Fighting for a role - Kolb (C) / Coronado (3B/2B), Pfeifer (IF), Ulrich (IF) / Walburn (OF)

SP - Waugh / Rivera / Irvin / Loeb / ?
RP - Kearns (CL) / Ruiz (SU) / Cahill (SU) / Schechter (MR) / ? / ?

Fighting for a role - Croft, Shinnick, Sais, Harris, McGee (SP) / Mihalkovsky, Watanabe, Mayer, Reyes (RP)

OUT from the '56 roster: Null/Kolb* (C) / Matson* (1B) / Tipping* (2B) / Lynn (CF) / Morales, Sanabria, Mendez (RP)
(NOTE: guys marked with * are still on the roster as of this writing)

Biggest questions in camp: Who is our 1B? New backup catcher? Number five SP? Bullpen beyond the top four?

Money to spend: Very little.

(Upcoming arbitrations shown below)

08-10-2022, 08:13 PM	#472
Bub13 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: Maine Posts: 748	2056-57 OFF-SEASON, part one That was a disappointing ending, but I need to remember that for a time this season I didn't think we'd even get that far. Remember when we were two games over .500 and in third place, at the end of June? Good times, huh. But a 55-26 run to close the season atoned for a lot of early sins, and maybe made us a little overconfident heading into the post-season. We did finally break Texas' grip on the division title after a two-year reign, and I'm hopeful--given things beyond my control, actually--that we can make that a regular thing again moving forward. With the calendar about to flip to the fun part of the off-season, I am dreading the annual phone call from our corporate overlords, who usually only pay attention to one number: the bottom line. And that bottom line says we actually lost money, just over $3M, this season, after turning over more than $23M to those crooks last fall. But while we overspent in a couple of areas this year, I anticipate some easy-to-make reductions next year; meaning that even with our (for now) expected rise in player salaries of about $16M, I think we can more than break even next year. More on that later... ...... And the calendar flips, bringing the following team news... ...JJ Simmons executes his contract option, meaning he's with us through '59 and possibly '60 if he uses his PO. I expected this, but kind of hoped he wouldn't do it, as I had tentative plans for his $25M. He had quite a rebound season for us, earning 4.9 WAR and batting .305 while giving us decent defense at third and short. But man, that money...I had such plans, JJ! But the fans love him, and he's hit five of his career 14 home runs in the last two seasons, so maybe he's bulking up in his dotage. He'll be 35 by Opening Day, however...and I can already hear the forges working to cast the anchor that his contract will probably become in another couple of seasons... Just stay healthy, my man! ...Our Cayman Islands overlords send me their usual tut-tuts via attack drone this year, blasting a hole in my newly refurbished seaside villa office. I guess I was putting a window there anyway... Long story short, the budget will go up to a cool $200M next year, with an expected $160M available for player expenses. Thing is, our good friend JJ re-upping means we're on the hook for about $180 mill at the moment, so something isn't adding up yet. And before the mechanical bug departs, I'm left with two terrible goals: re-sign Joe Lynn and acquire a "Nationally popular player." Lynn wants $25M per season guys. Who's going to sign those checks? And I'm happy to grab a national hero...assuming he's a third string catcher making league minimum. Any of them around? ...RP Ramon Sanabria fails to meet his vesting contract, sending him to free agency. After getting him from Philly he was bad, then good, then bad again. He's already 40 and on borrowed time, and now wants over $4M a year going forward. Here's your motorboat, Ramon. Good luck finding the mainland. Aim east. ...two minor league nobodies retire, and only two system-wide staffers are not re-signed. One is Hawaii pitching coach Sam O'Farrell, who's worked his way up our ladder since 2042 and has been with the big club for the past two seasons. But he wants over $800k and I'm not sure I can do that, Dave. So there's one bit of budget trimming accomplished. ...the end of season top prospects list comes out, and we've got four guys in the top ten. First overall is still Jose Villalpando. He'll get a strong shot at cracking the roster--or even the starting lineup--in the spring. Second is AA pitcher Curt Christensen, who only needs a jump in his control to have a shot at the rotation. But he could still start in the bullpen even where his ratings are now, he's that far along. Seventh sits SS Cris Flores, who looks like he's becoming more than the mirage I thought he was this time a year ago. His defense, speed, and gap/power ratings have always been good; but he took a jump this year in contact and plate awareness--or at least his ceilings did. He played in Short A this year but will have to work hard to start higher than A ball next spring. Finally, eighth place goes to pitcher Will McGee, whom I love as a rotational prospect, but who had a tough injury-plagued year. He too is very close to being fully cooked, and could also be a candidate for a spot in the pen is he has a strong spring. Looky here: two cheap options for a pen I need to reconstruct this off-season! ...somehow I find myself with FOURTEEN arbitration cases pending. Sheesh. The good news is nobody looks to be wanting big six-figure numbers. But it's still a lot of dosh, and I may have to make some unwanted decisions and let a few useful odds and ends go begging. We have one UFA-to-be who could get the $13M qualifying offer, Joe Lynn. I'm not sure where I'll go there. Three players on big league deals, all RP--Ramon Sanabria, Marco Mendez, and Jason Morales--will go to free agency, along with a large cruise ship full of minor leaguers. Most of my AA team will need replacing, as will a good 7-8 slots on almost every other team system-wide. It was time for a clean-out anyway! Get out, you slackers! Off my dime! ...across our farm system it was generally a good-news season. Although Wilmington (R) and Androscoggin (AA) finished under .500, everyone else topped that mark. Athens (R) went 35-33, the only other team to miss the playoffs. Poughkeepsie (Short A) went 50-20 and beat Staten Island to take the NY-Penn League championship. Eureka (A) won their division with an 82-58 mark, but fell to High Desert in the opening playoff round. And Santa Barbara (AAA) won 88 games on the way to their fourth straight playoff appearance, ultimately falling in the PCL championship to Memphis in six games. ...... ...in MLB news, only a handful of managerial spots have opened up, but ten teams are looking for new GMs. No big names retired or got fired, although Tampa's Jose Morillo retired after five winning seasons, four with 90+ wins. ...there are some big--BIG--names potentially on the market this fall. NL strikeout kings Conor MacLeod and Nick Light, to start. Both should sign for huge money somewhere. The biggest name is probably superstar Texas SS Ryan Boers, the rare player with no weaknesses at all. But anyone would also settle for slugging PHI OF Rick Logston, LA's 2B Alfonso Torres, NOZ RF Jordan Coronado, or TB OF Vance Wise. And maybe, just maybe, Hawaii CF Joe Lynn... ...LEAGUE AWARDS NIGHT, er, WEEK: AL GOLD GLOVES: P Chris Liles, DET (4th win); C Juan Pizano, KCR (2nd); 1B Elijah Pass, CHW (2nd); 2B Mike McNeill, TEX (3rd); 3B Jose Pantoja, NYY; SS Oscar Garza, HOU (6th); LF Jordan Foots, MIN (5th); CF Melvin Lopez, NYY (3rd); RF Andy Barenberg, CHW (2nd) NL GOLD GLOVES: P Danny Salgado, SFG; C Drew Stofan, SDP; 1B Joel Potter, BKN; 2B Mike Barbour, AUS; 3B Sergio Pacheco, ATL; SS Ryan Wonderling, POR; LF Jake Morris, ATL (4th); CF Ricky Flores, CHC; RF Shawn Moore, CHC AL Hoyt Wilhelm: John Rogers, MIL [2.31 ERA, 36 SV, 106 K, 3.1 WAR] NL Hoyt Wilhelm: John Jackman, CIN [1.41 ERA, 50 SV, 0.89 WHIP, 3.9 WAR] AL Silver Sluggers: C Phi Thoma, TEX (2nd); 1B Ricky Ayala, MIL; 2B Jorge Arriola, TBR (2nd); 3B Tom Esposito, KCR (2nd); SS Ryan Boers, TEX (5th); LF Chris Bierly, MIA; CF Ryan Lawler, MIN (2nd); RF Tyler Knott, BOS; DH Toshi Shimabukuro, MIA (2nd) NL Silver Sluggers: C Eduardo Beltran, BKN; 1B Alfonso Contreras, AUS (5th); 2B Alfonso Torres, LAD (5th); 3B Heath Lewellen, CIN (2nd); SS Rich Stoneback, LAD; LF Rick Logston, PHI (3rd); CF Chris Mitchell, CIN (4th); RF Kevin Reynolds, ARI (2nd) AL Rookie of the Year: 1B Joey Walker, MIL [.264/.334/.564, 49 HR, 3.6 WAR] (5 first place votes for Bill Gamboa, and Hagemann finished 3rd) NL Rookie of the Year: P Luis Avila, POR [10-2, 2.36, 21 GP, 13 GS, 107 IP, 116 K, 2.3 WAR] AL Manager of the Year: Tyler Macklin, DET NL Manager of the Year: Eric van der Zalm, LAD (3rd straight win) AL Cy Young: Matt Waugh, HAW [20-7, 2.77, 244 IP, 268 K, 8.2 WAR, 6th win, 4th in a row] NL Cy Young: Nick Light, WAS [14-13, 2.91, 268.2 IP, 311 K, 8.0 WAR, 2nd win ('54)] AL MVP: SS Ryan Boers, TEX [.316/.414/.599, 9.7 WAR, 42 HR, 107 RBI, 115 R, 2nd win ('54)] NL MVP: OF Kevin Reynolds, ARI [.307/.437/.622, 9.2 WAR (all 1st place), 43 HR, 116 R, 117 BB] ...... Before moving into free agency, let's try to untangle the status of the big league roster and the decisions we'll have to make. Ideally, I should cut some salary: we're projected to be on the hook for $180M, and that's only if we win all our salary arbitrations; the accountants say we should really spend about $160M on salaries, and $40M on the rest, making up our forthcoming $200M total budget. But...those same accountants project our '57 expenses ($223M) to nearly match our '56 outflow ($222M). How, with salaries climbing by over $20M? First, we spent $40M (yep) on international free agents this summer, and we'll spend zero (against a projected $10M) next year. Plus, I could trim the scouting and developmental budgets by a few million each and save another $5M+. Finally, our media contract is growing, by about $8M. So, creatively speaking, I think we're in pretty good shape even if I do nothing. And what if I do nothing? Is a repeat 97-win season that bad? Yes, we went out quietly in the playoffs, but isn't that always a crap shoot anyway? Maybe treading water is the wise choice this off-season...Anyway, read on to see my thinking across the roster. Catcher: Jamie Collins had a difficult season, finishing subpar defensively and batting just .230. But he hit 18 HR and batted .280 during that crucial August-September run. He's a lefty and should ideally be in a platoon; he's also arb eligible with an estimated increase from 500k to 1.4M. His partners were Jared Null (.182 in 77 AB) and Bentley Kolb (.200 in 75). Neither impressed at or behind the plate. The next best thing is Jeff Meadors, who figures to be in Short A next year, and has some major holes in his game anyway. He's years away, at best. PROJECTION: Collins returns; I might seek a stout defensive RH platoon option via trade or free agency. First Base/DH: Jules Medici struggled with injuries but still hit .303 in 116 games. He's obvious to return, and could move to first from DH if needed. Josh Matson led the team with 100 RBI, but while everyone else got hot late in the year, he got cold. Having earned a combined 3.4 WAR in the last three seasons, and making $11M, he's a candidate for departure. But he's 32 and may draw little or no interest league-wide. Like our catchers, there isn't anyone in the system pushing for a role here, but you always figure that just about anyone could play first. PROJECTION: Move one of our glut of infielders (read on) here, go after a name free agent, or throw a kid into the fray? Whichever way, the writing is on the wall for Matson after eight seasons with us, sadly. Second Base: Injuries and slumps forced us to juggle our infield all year, and three guys saw major time here: Lucas Tipping (70 starts), Jesus Calderin (50), and Bill Gamboa (41). Tipping began the season as the #1, but played his way out of regular time. His defense was subpar and his power and average declined noticeably. At just 25, however, he could bounce back. Calderin is better suited for third, and will be discussed below; he shouldn't figure here in '57. Gamboa was a pleasant surprise, leading the team with 26 home runs and hitting well until he slumped to .258 late. He's the inside runner for next spring, frankly, and although Tipping is on an affordable $2.2M contract, he could be the odd man out. Another consideration is Jake Moore, who's gone from a can't-miss SS prospect to a super-utility backup, even if he doesn't fully realize it yet. His presence could also add to someone's departure. PROJECTION: I'd like Gamboa to hit for a bit more average, but he's otherwise ideally suited for second rather than short (where he started the most). With Moore available, Tipping could be the odd man out, a la Matson at first. Third Base: Like second, three men rotated here: JJ Simmons (88 starts), Calderin (30), and Bobby Coronado (38). Calderin slumped hard then got injured after being handed the job in camp, but bounced back with a huge second half, finishing with 24 HR and a .310 average. He's also a solid fielder here, much better than his time at second. Coronado got a chance early after a rash of infield injuries, and surprised to hit .321, but was terrible in the field and really doesn't do much else at the plate (just 2 walks in 158 PA, for example). Jake Moore is also well-suited here, but again his bat keeps him in a utility and defensive sub role. The wildcard here is super prospect Jose Villalpando, who, at 20, hit .283 in AAA and did not look out of place in two late starts in Hawaii. He's still developing his power (his ceiling is off the charts good), and with a good camp could really upset the apple cart here. PROJECTION: Even with Villalpando pushing, Calderin stays for now. Perhaps Vill rotates in, and plays some first and DH too. Will he hit enough to save me some cash by not trading for a proven 1B, for example? Coronado will probably start in AAA again, as injury insurance. Shortstop: More starting madness: Gamboa made 91 starts, JJ Simmons 55, and Moore made 11. None were all that good defensively, with Moore the "best" of the lot. But none were terrible either. With Simmons exercising his option, he's the obvious candidate to start here, even though you feel that he's become a 50-50 option for making it through the entire season. No one else besides Moore is really rated well at short, so a Simmons injury puts us in a defensive hole again. Prospect Cris Flores is starting to look like the real deal as a future star, but he's at best two years away. PROJECTION: It's fan favorite Simmons again, although he's lost a step of range, with Moore the omnipresent utility sub. There's also dark horse prospect Joey Ulrich, who hit .312 in AA and saw some AAA playoff action. His range at short is just adequate, but he's strong in other defensive aspects. He may be better suited as a corner guy, but his lack of power is less than ideal for those positions. Left Field: Erik Bennetsen is the likely returnee, finishing at .281 with 18 HR in 116 games after a slow start. When healthy and motivated, he's a beast at the plate. Defensively, he rates well but his numbers are subpar. Doug Pederson filled in some (27 starts) late, but was a defensive black hole despite making zero errors. Chase Thompson added 15 starts, and was okay, but didn't really impress in any way. Rookies Jeremy Hagemann, Kyle Kolstad, and Eric Sayward also saw time here. Hagemann looked the best of the three, hitting for power and playing adequate corner defense. Kolstad is by far the best fielder, but his unfortunate combo of high K and bad eye will limit his usefulness as a hitter. Still, he's not truly terrible at the plate. Sayward is well on his way to becoming our next across-the-field utility OF, with the possibility of higher development to come. PROJECTION: Bennetsen figures to start here again, barring something unforeseen happening. Hagemann and Sayward figure as the front runners for the #4 position. Center Field: It looks like seven-year starter Joe Lynn is pricing himself out of town. When he played plus-plus defense and batted .340, I could see paying him $20M+. But as a .270 hitter with no power? Uh-uh. His defense bounced back (+8.5 ZR, up nearly a dozen points from an awful '55 season), but he hasn't hit much for two seasons now. Brian Hassell saw more time as the season went on, finishing with 42 starts, and while his defense wasn't nearly as good as Lynn's, he hit for the same average but with more power. We will miss Lynn's 40-60 steals per season, however. PROJECTION: Lynn's been a class act, but I can't afford that contract paired with that kind of performance. Hassell gets to show what he's got full-time next year, with Kolstad his likely backup. Right Field: What to do with Doug Pederson? Three years of high performance (OPS+ of 154, 136, and 151) has been coupled with a rash of injuries, and he's only topped 140 games once. Then this year he was injured AND didn't hit, ending at .234, with 16 HR in 384 AB. And while he has a strong arm, his lack of range renders him, say, less-than-useful in his primary role. Hagemann could figure here, but his arm isn't nearly as good, and his L/R splits might make him better suited in a platoon role. Sayward could also get a look, especially as the RH part of that platoon. PROJECTION: It's Pederson for now, unless something better comes along. I still roll the dice with him, as his usual plate prowess makes up for his lack of defensive ability. One day he'll hit 40 HR; but will it be with Hawaii? Outfield in General: Currently I'm looking at a Bennetsen/Hassell/Pederson starting trio. Offensively: they're solid. Defensively: no one stands out, and Pederson is decidedly below sea level. The reserve triad of Hagemann/Sayward/Kolstad could all make the club in camp, depending on how the rest of the lineup shakes out. On the farm? No one in AAA looks promising, as slugger Rocky DeMars is too injury prone and strikes out a ton, lessening the impact of his tremendous power potential. One-time promising guys Dave Langford, Collin Blazer, and Andrew Farmer haven't developed as hoped, and interesting prospects Ron LeBarge, Mimum Antar, and Matthew Walburn are all 2-3 years away from consideration. The really intriguing figure here is A ball stud Beau Collins, who whacked a crazy 70 HR in Eureka. He's always had power: now he needs to stop striking out so much to have a chance here. He'll be 22 and in AA next year, and busts his ass every night. If he can ever stop fanning more than 30% of the time, watch out... Starting Pitching: Everyone stayed healthy and we got good pitching from them all nearly all season. Matt Waugh was Matt Waugh again, winning his 4th Cy Young in his 4th season with us. While he wasn't as consistently dominating as usual, I will have no complaints about a guy who earns 8.2 WAR. Jose Rivera came over from Pittsburgh as the #2 guy, and while he fanned nearly 11 per 9 IP, he suffered with a losing record and a 4.01 ERA. (Our bad OF defense probably hurt him, given his 3.17 FIP and .332 BABIP.) Josh Irvin started slowly but picked up his pace by mid-season, becoming again the groundballs-and-no-walks madman he was in '55. John Loeb was the surprise, winning 19 games from his #5 slot and usually bailing us out with some solid pitching when we weren't hitting. Daniel Croft was okay, his 4.28 ERA the worst of the lot, and his 4.27 FIP suggesting that he was indeed the "worst" of these five. He's the most likely to get pushed in camp. PROJECTION: Gotta figure that Waugh/Rivera/Irvin/Loeb are set. Croft will have the inside track at the #5 slot as the returning vet. But he'll face a strong push from '55 starter Steve Shinnick, and AAA stalwarts Juan Sais, Travis Harris, and Will McGee, as well as fast-rising Curt Christensen, who spent '56 in AA. McGee and Christensen look like the best of the bunch, but with issues: McGee looks fragile, and Christensen may be a year away while he works on his control. Any of these guys could also start in next year's bullpen, as both a cost-saving move and a way to get them big league innings. Should be a fun camp. Relief Pitching: Nate Kearns had a money season as closer, with a 1.67 ERA and fanning 11.2 per 9 IP. He'll be back. I made several in-season moves here after some early-season horribleness, with additions Ramon Sanabria, Jason Morales, and Justin Schechter all pitching fairly well after their arrivals. But Sanabria stunk it up late, blew up in the playoffs, and wants too much money for a 41-year-old. Likewise, Morales is likely gone, wanting a raise on his $2.1M salary, while I have younger options available to fill his role. Schechter is still under contract, and will also return: he's a hard thrower and will be relied upon with most of our other options not having big power arms. What we also need are injury-free seasons from returners Jordan Ruiz and Brad Cahill, and for Yoshi Watanabe, Manny Reyes, and Joey Mayer to live up to their high potential. Marco Mendez was acquired in the off-season, but was so bad he spent most of the season in AAA and wants too much money for me to even speak to him any longer. He won't be back. Anthony Booker scouts superbly but has never performed and is likely gone, and AAA vets Larry Hensley, Deshawn Card, Gleb Mihalkovsky, and Orlando Silva are failed starters who don't rate that highly as relievers either. AA arms Jason Eicher, Chris Schroeder, and Gio Reed figure to be in AAA next year. PROJECTION: The six-man pen right now looks like Kearns/Ruiz/Cahill/Schechter at the top, based on seniority, with Watanabe, Reyes, and Mayer getting the longest looks. I think I will also go after a big throwing vet with good control to complement the top four. So assuming no additions, here's my current thinking for next year's roster: C - Collins 1B - ? 2B - Gamboa 3B - Calderin SS - Simmons LF - Bennetsen CF - Hassell RF - Pederson DH - Medici Bench - ? (C) / Moore (IF) / Villalpando (3B/1B/DH) / Hagemann (OF/1B) / Sayward (OF/1B) / Kolstad (OF) Fighting for a role - Kolb (C) / Coronado (3B/2B), Pfeifer (IF), Ulrich (IF) / Walburn (OF) SP - Waugh / Rivera / Irvin / Loeb / ? RP - Kearns (CL) / Ruiz (SU) / Cahill (SU) / Schechter (MR) / ? / ? Fighting for a role - Croft, Shinnick, Sais, Harris, McGee (SP) / Mihalkovsky, Watanabe, Mayer, Reyes (RP) OUT from the '56 roster: Null/Kolb* (C) / Matson* (1B) / Tipping* (2B) / Lynn (CF) / Morales, Sanabria, Mendez (RP) (NOTE: guys marked with * are still on the roster as of this writing) Biggest questions in camp: Who is our 1B? New backup catcher? Number five SP? Bullpen beyond the top four? Money to spend: Very little. (Upcoming arbitrations shown below) Attached Images __________________ Introducing Your Hawaii Islanders!