Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Arnold
Maybe Gonsolin simply isn't as good as his previous record showed? (or at least not rated as highly) That would also explain why LAD was more willing to part with him.
I mean, if you trade for someone who's 12-1 with a 1.65 ERA, I would certainly expect him to do worse going forward unless if he's like deGrom. Jumping up to a 4.48 ERA the next year is aggressive, true, but what are his other metrics like? Sounds like you're not even half way through that season, so a huge ERA could just be a couple bad games, or some bad HR luck, or even just getting really unlucky with runners scoring. I'd be looking at all those numbers before even starting to dig into park factors or team D.
For Ferguson, a reliever doing fantastic in limited action is certainly far from unexpected.
I mean, if you want to "prove" that the stats engine isn't out to get you, go into the editor, change Gonsolin to max ratings in every category, and see him strike out 25 batters a game and win every one of his starts because he never gives up a run.
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I can't argue with one bit of those bytes. But, I bounced this off a couple of my fantasy baseball boyz over a couple suds at the watering hole last night. They were really perplexed, as I was, that EVERYONE in that trade showed DRASTIC changes in history. That's 100% of 3 players.
Maybe my boyz are not as brilliant about baseball as the SABR folks that like to throw the algorithms around, but they seem to hold their own in the ranks of FB where predictions, expectations, gut, and seeing patterns is paramount. One is a bookie and his livelihood is based on setting lines and prognostication. Maybe it's not science, but gambling generates a lot more revenues that science.
They just gave their blue-collar guy-on-the-street opinion w/o any prejudices. They thought it pretty peculiar.
And, as I keep saying as ppl keep putting words in my mouth. I HAVE NEVER ONCE SAID ANYTHING IS OUT TO GET ME, THERE IS AN OOTP CONSPIRACY AGAINST DCORDASH, I HEAR VOICES, OR ANYTHING OF THAT NATURE.
My point has always been the normal, typical, garden-variety anyone seeing the things I have would have. THE CODE IN THE GAME DOES NOT ALWAYS FULFILL CUSTOMER EXPECTATIONS. That's it, and there goes the nature of code written by folks. Folks ain't perfect and their code isn't always..so I'm pretty confident that's not a vindictive nor unusual line of thought.