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8/1/22 (38-62, 5th in NLW - 18.5GB)
I used the All-Star Break as the time to pivot from scout based lineup decisions to stat based. Immediate results were positive, starting the second half with a four game winning streak. Though the 1-6 stretch since shows that the team’s issues run much deeper than simply lineup construction which I knew was the case. It’s obvious if you look at the individual performances of guys on the roster. Unfortunately in analyzing the roster, there are very few players, especially on the offensive side, that at this point feel like they belong on a roster that wins enough to make the playoffs. It is possible that age is a factor as a significant portion of the roster is under 25, but guys I thought would hit the ground running in the majors have not, and in some cases the only reason they’re still in the majors is because there’s no better replacements in the minors.
On the offensive side, there have only been three true standout players to this point. First baseman Tony Conchas, my second round pick in the inaugural fantasy draft, has been the Padres’ best offensive performer to date. He’s on pace for a 3 WAR season as a 23 year old. Shortstop Alberto Samario was a late callup relative to my top prospects, but he’s performed well since debuting. Power is lacking and I don’t think will ever come, but he played his way into the leadoff spot and has provided a league average offensive line and average glove which I’m happy with for a shortstop. The final standout player worth mentioning is third baseman Josh Bock. I actually didn’t even select him in the inaugural draft myself as he wasn’t taken until the 191st round, long after I had given up draft responsibility to my assistant GM. Although I do anticipate the 30 year old losing his starting spot to one of a couple contending prospects, he does have a few more years of control and I’m sure at the least will provide a solid lefty bat off the bench.
To this point I’d describe my starting outfield as “meh”. No one has been bad, but no one has been good either. The real disappointment so far has been at catcher and second base. Enrique Borges, my first round pick in the opening draft, has been outright bad since a strong first two weeks in the majors. There’s a strong chance he sees AAA again before the end of the season. He is only 23, so there’s plenty of time for him to reach his potential, but it is worrying for the plan to rely solely on homegrown players if my first pick turns out to be a dud. This plan gives so little wiggle room. Catcher is the other position that gives me concern. My planned starting catcher Miguel Cruz couldn’t hit in the majors, and now can’t hit at AAA. He’s also already 27 so unless this has been a fluke season or he’s a late developer, he might never see meaningful playing time in the majors again. I took a bit of a gamble when I drafted my other catcher, Mitch Delker, due to his poor contact ratings. The gamble has not paid off so far as he’s batting .199 through his first 150 major league plate appearances. Though Delker has been solid behind the plate and I think his increased playing time is partially responsible for the improvements the pitching staff has seen recently.
I have more optimism about the future of the pitching half of the Padres’ roster. The staff ERA isn’t great, but they have a middle of the pack FIP which I think is more indicative of their true talent as the Padres have had a league worst defense to date. The staff has been led by starter Jesus Galvez, the sole Padres All-Star this season. I think closer Antonio Gonzalez was just as deserving of an All-Star spot but unfortunately didn’t make it. What’s been a pleasant surprise is that the players that are mostly roster fillers have held their own while pitching prospects get a little more time in the minors. The one cause for concern is Adrian Hernandez, the first pitcher I selected in the opening draft. He’s had a rough first half to start his major league career, currently carrying a 6.93 ERA through his first 20 starts. He’s been killed by home runs, giving up over two per nine innings through the end of June. The month of July he was able to keep home runs under control, and the results show. He is still only 22, so I’m hoping July was a sign of things to come and he’ll continue to improve and develop into the ace I expect him to be.
The one other notable thing that has happened since the last update is international amateur free agency where I maxed out my $5M pool in signing four players. Shortstop Angelo Orozco out of Venezuela is the headliner. My scout gives him 80-grade overall potential, with all batting potentials 65 or better and average shortstop defense. OSA is even higher on him than my scout is. Next is outfielder Edgar Buentello from the Dominican Republic. His glove is very questionable and if he doesn’t improve he’ll end up at 1B/DH but his bat is projected to be so good that it doesn’t matter, with 70-grade contact and power. I also signed starting pitcher Nelson Santana, also from the Dominican Republic. It’s very likely he’ll end up in the bullpen as he only has two quality pitches, but he should be lights out coming out of the bullpen. The final player signed is Jose Aragon, a starter from Colombia. He has solid individual ratings but my scout only has him as a 30 potential player. I’m hoping his individual ratings are more indicative of his eventual output than his overall rating is.
There also was a prospect rating update and the Padres kept the number one ranking despite some graduations, helped by Orozco sliding in as my top prospect and sixth overall and Buentello selected as my third best prospect and 21st overall. Despite the gloom and doom that the current major league season has provided, I do have to remember that my organization is filled with promising prospects and if I’m patient, I’ll be rewarded with competitive major league baseball as more and more prospects debut and replace older roster fillers or underperforming younger guys.
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