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Very true on the coinflip that drafting a QB is. It just feels like the upside of Mayfield is that he winds up as Kirk Cousins, a good, but not great QB who is very expensive. If he does break out this year in Carolina, they still probably won't make the playoffs and then they have the choice of tagging him and paying him $35M on a one year deal or extending him on something like the Ryan Tannehill or Kirk Cousins contract.
If they had a really good young core and just needed a QB to put them over the top it would make sense (though if that were the case they probably would have been in on Matt Ryan or maybe Jimmy G), but as it is there is very little upside. Granted the cost is nearly nothing, so it could be worth it just to be less embarrassing this year since he should be more watchable than Darnold/Corral.
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