[Bub13]

July 18-20 vs HOUSTON
Last of the nine-game homestand. A 4-8 month has put them in last place, tied with the slumping Mariners. Offense ranks 16th, pitching 14th. I don't know what happened to this once up-and-coming team. I see a few guys over 30 who should be complementary bench pieces instead of regulars, no catchers, and the slickest fielding keystone combo I can recall (who are also having career years at the plate, at .270 and .240 with 8 combined HR). You could build around 1B Jose Renteria, but he's 29 now and maybe should be leveraged into multiple pieces for a full rebuild. The only other guy worth anything is DH Antonio Escobar, but he's fizzled a bit after looking like an all-world prospect. Pitching looks better, with some nice-looking starters and some near-elite relievers. But you'd like to say, when rebuilding, that you've got more to offer your fans than "some near-elite relievers." Still, they could build around pitching and try to add a few free agents. BUT...there's only $4M available for new contracts and they're increasing that by only million more to that with the few forthcoming free agents. If you're looking further down the line, they did just add a solid 16-year-old International in Francis Rodriguez; and they do have a few guys I'd steal in their international complex. That, and some intriguing 19- and 20-year-old pitchers make for an interesting long-term picture.

HAW pitchers: RH Josh Irvin (6-8, 4.34) / LH Daniel Croft (8-7, 4.29) / LH John Loeb (8-4, 3.22)
HOU pitchers: RH Winton Jones (8-8, 3.97) / RH Chris James (5-9, 6.05) / RH Miles Iandoli (6-10, 4.98)

#94: LOSS 1-7 ... ooof...move along now
#95: WIN 13-3 ... 17 hits including 3 HR, lots of guys pitching in...Croft has another good game, going into the 9th and allowing just 6 hits
#96: WIN 4-3 ... Gamboa's solo blast in the 7th is the GW...Lynn drives in two with a double and a sac fly...7 IP for Loeb, then two scoreless frames from the pen!

Nice comeback after that first ugly game.... Hey, we're closing in on 100 home runs! We have 92, so maybe just a few weeks away now.... Bill Gamboa leads the team in home runs, with 15. I never, ever, thought I'd be typing that sentence.... We signed our third International, finally agreeing to terms with Dominican 3B Michael Coronel. He projects as a big-time slugger with a great eye and few strikeouts. Nice arm at third, but kinda iffy with the glove.... ELSEWHERE: Lots of trades again, none worth mentioning though.... He started off the season hot, then slumped off, and now he's back: former Isle Josh Hed is hitting again in Arizona, at .311/15/49 and 2nd in the NL in batting. Playing great defense too. I still think we were right to trade him, but good for him anyway.... Kudos to those Phillies, having won four straight and now just two in back of Richmond. Pitching, who needs it.... Texas has reached the 60-win plateau, second team in the majors to do so.


July 21-23 @ MINNESOTA
Their 42-54 record is right about where MLB said they'd be all along. But what probably grinds the gears of Twins fans is the subpar offense--12th in runs--despite spending money on their stars and on free agents. Jordan Foots (.268), Jesus Villegas (.239), Santos Chavez (.248), and Mike Lee (.265) are all hitting 30-50 points below their career averages. Power is still up--5th in home runs--but runs and average and OBP are all down and trending that way. Pitching has been as bad as expected, 15th in runs allowed, and the rotation is next-to-last in ERA. Injuries have hurt, with 2B Andy Elliott and RF Tim Marinaccio missing significant time (and still out), and seven pitchers are currently on the DL. The good news here is that only a couple of relievers are unsigned for next year; although given their record, maybe that's not great news. I think there's a promising roster here: none of the slumping batters are old and declining, and there's some promise on the pitching staff. But that latter group needs the most work: grab a starter and a couple of high-to-mid-end relievers, and I think the Twins are instantly competitive. But...the guys they're paying do have to hit again one day.

HAW pitchers: LH Matt Waugh (13-4, 2.82) / RH Jose Rivera (8-10, 4.04) / RH Josh Irvin (6-9, 4.46)
MIN pitchers: RH Gary Kocher (3-10, 4.61) / RH Ken Aikens (4-11, 6.16) / RH Dan Hannan (9-4, 4.42)

#97: WIN 2-1 ... only 4 hits here, but one is a 2-run shot by Collins...Waugh goes 8, and holds the bad guys to just the one run on 9 hits
#98: LOSS 4-5 ... 3 hits and 2 RBI from Calderin, but no other highlights...Bennetsen suspended for 3 games for fighting their pitcher after an HPB
#99: WIN 4-3 ... a pair of doubles in the 7th plate three runs, then Lynn wins it with another double in the 9th

Two wins here keeps our momentum up, even though we didn't hit well in any of these games. Still 9 games behind Texas, but we're three up on California now.... Bennetsen took exception to a plunking, so went after Twins pitcher Ken Aikens. B got three games, Aikens six. Jeremy Hagemann slides into left for next series.... Calderin has a hot hand now and will get a few games at second, over the stone-cold Tipping.... ELSEWHERE: The AL Central is heating up. Milwaukee has surged into first on an 8-2 run, while KC has won four straight to get to third place, five games out. Detroit is still plugging along.... KC pitcher Steve Scibek just tossed a 2-hit/16-K shutout. His 76 FIP-, 12 wins, and 188 are all career highs by a long way. Finally coming into his tremendous potential.... What do you get when you combine a league's 17th-ranked offense and the 16th-ranked pitching? This year's San Diego Padres, with a 33-66 record--worst in the bigs--and 33 games behind the Dodgers.... Arizona has two of the NL's best young hitters, in OF Kevin Reynolds and 1B Juan Lozano, but years of little investment in pitching has kept them on the losing side of the ledger. But they've got a few youngsters ready to step up, plus a few other young hitters (and former Isle Josh Hed), and could challenge at least for a wildcard next year. Good luck guys. LA is still gonna be really good.


July 25-27 vs TORONTO
Such a promising start, in April, with a 17-9 record. But it's been downhill since, especially a 14-31 mark since June 1st. The offense has fallen to last in the AL, neither hitting for average nor for power, while pitching sits 11th. Former Isle Diego Espino has at least produced some in CF, going .264/.317/.463 with 10 HR and 10 steals in 54 starts. Their major issue is an easy one to diagnose: two batters under the Mendoza line + five others below .250 = no hitting, no one getting on base. But, I can say that despite that 11th-place pitching staff, on paper their rotation looks young and really solid. A nice mix of power and finesse, and a few young guys who are still developing. Plus, the top of the bullpen--closer Danny Mendiola, and setups Carlos Vazquez and Jaiden Watkins--are also a solid foundation. But that offense needs serious overhauling, with few prospects coming along, and mostly comprised of mid-ranked veterans and younger guys. None of their top prospects are batters either. What's also somewhat promising is that some underwhelming vets will walk this fall, so they'll have even more room than the $30M they already have to spend on new contracts. So with some luck and aggression, they could get quite a bit better very quickly. But they'll have a lot of competition.

HAW pitchers: LH Daniel Croft (9-7, 4.22) / LH John Loeb (9-4, 3.25) / LH Matt Waugh (14-4, 2.73)
TOR pitchers: RH Josh Haynam (8-3 3.20) / RH Andy Jones (5-11, 5.35) / RH Nick Palmer (10-9, 4.81)

#100: LOSS 4-7 ... Croft is beat up early, leaves in the 5th...Gamboa homers, Simmons gets three hits...that's about it
#101: WIN 6-0 ... Loeb tosses a 4-hitter through 8.1 IP...Collins hits one out, and three guys get two hits and an RBI each
#102: WIN 5-4 ... two runs in the 9th--RBI singles by Coronado and Medici--squeeze out this win...Waugh gives up 4 early runs but does fan 10, Kearns gets the win

Again, two wins with some just-good-enough offense, and generally solid pitching. A Texas sweep put them back to ten up on us, but we are now in wildcard position, by a game over KC.... Sixth in runs scored, with a +70 run differential! And we're first in steals, with 140. That's good, right?.... Looking around our farm teams, one player has stood out in a crazy way: OF Beau Collins (Eureka, A ball) has FIFTY-NINE home runs in 339 AB. He has a slash of .324/.398/.900. He's also struck out 106 times, but who's paying attention to that. Wow.... ELSEWHERE: LA leads everyone with 69 wins, Texas is second with 66.... More trades leading up to the deadline, almost all involving winning teams stocking up on relief pitching help. Richmond grabs two vets, Philadelphia and Texas one, and Portland has swapped out three pitchers and brought in one. Of course Texas brings in the best of the bunch, getting closer-worthy Jon Downs from the Cardinals for two okay prospects and power-hitting young OF Antonio Reyes. Downs adds to an already third-ranked bullpen, just what we need to hear as we try to gain ground on these guys.... Philly has ridden that terrible pitching to a 9-1 run and a game out of first.


July 28-30 @ TEXAS
Yes, it's time to bruise our fragile confidence with a trip to the lion's den. First in offense, in nearly every category, and 6th in pitching. A +143 run differential, which seems like a really good number. Six regulars not only have double figures in home runs, they're all over 20 home runs. Again, that's probably pretty good. The only thing I've noticed is that for some reason they've turned over right field to Rich Fernandez, hitting .111, instead of Ted Miller, batting .270 with 11 HR. Also, Joel Wiechart has been moved out of the rotation (thanks to a team-worst 5.17 ERA) and replaced by Drew Hurt, recently acquired from the White Sox. Hurt has been very good in three starts with Texas, although he's prone to the long ball and had a less-than-groovy 6.25 ERA himself this year for the Southsiders. Anyway...all the usual suspects are hitting, they've got someone at or near the top in every offensive category--including steals--and their pitching has been quietly solid. It's really hard to see how we're NOT going to get a three-peat of an LA vs TEX World Series this fall. Can anyone else step up?

HAW pitchers: RH Jose Rivera (8-11, 4.18) / RH Josh Irvin (7-9, 4.40) / LH Daniel Croft (9-8, 4.56)
TEX pitchers: RH Dinand Huisman (13-3, 4.32) / RH Mike Nelson (8-6, 3.32) / RH Drew Hurt (7-9, 5.62)

#103: LOSS 0-2 ... of course when we shut down their offense, we get only 3 hits and commit 3 errors...Rivera fans 11, but it's not enough
#104: WIN 3-1 ... Gamboa and Pederson homer, and Bennetsen gets ejected again for arguing with an umpire...Irvin goes 8 innings, fans four against zero walks
#105: LOSS 3-5 ... Croft stays in too long and gives up 3 in the 8th to take the loss. Sigh...two hits for Simmons and Pederson

SO CLOSE to a successful series, dammit.... Still not hitting worth a darn, though. Now 10th in average, 12th in OPS. Not good enough.... If you value WAR at all, it's telling for you that we have only two batters with more than two WAR: Gamboa at 2.9 and Simmons at 2.4. Even Medici has produced only 1.2 WAR, with his power down and strikeouts up.... Beau Collins now has 61 home runs. Our AAA team in Santa Barbara has hit the same amount in 92 games.... ELSEWHERE: More trades! The Yankees rid themselves of a few 30-year-olds, but none of the high-paid guys I mentioned when we played them recently. The best grab of the bunch is Pittsburgh acquiring solid pitching prospect Tyler Nelson from New Orleans for swingman (and soon-to-be free agent) Bill Murphy. Nelson could be in the rotation next year, while Murphy will probably be playing somewhere not in Louisiana by next March. Probably not a great deal for the Zephs, but they're vying with Cincinnati in the Central and should make the playoffs anyway. Not sure they can get past LA, but we'll see.... Forty home runs for Milwaukee's Ricky Ayala; he also leads baseball with 98 RBI.


July 31 @ CALIFORNIA
Still hanging around, at a game over .500 and just four behind us in the division and the wildcard standings. Fourth in average has them 9th in runs scored; tenth in runs allowed, with a +11 run differential. The offense is still mostly a two-man show, with 1B William Swanson (.309/28/72) and RF Mauricio Marquez (.322/21/64) leading the way, by far. Two-time batting champ Dan Dellinger (.283/10/54) has bounced back after some down years, and Jesse Brickell has 15 HR and a .900 OPS. On the mound, you could be forgiven for your surprise at how well their pitching has performed given that they have eight guys on the DL currently. Most of the staff is 26 or under, and signed, and should get better next year. (Plus some of those injured guys are pretty good, too.) Everybody's going to scramble for free agent batters this fall, including these guys; but if they get one or two hitters, watch this space next year.

HAW pitcher: LH John Loeb (10-4, 3.06)
CAL pitcher: RH Aaron Moore (8-8, 4.38)

#106: WIN 7-2 ... we put 17 runners on base and our guys combined to strand 37 men on base, lol...Loeb is sharp again, going 8.1 innings, fanning 7 and walking none

Positive end to the month, putting us back to ten games over .500 and ten behind Texas.... Loeb has been really sharp the last two months: 7-0 in 11 starts, 71 IP, 2.51 ERA, 2.3 WAR.... This year's race: Stolen bases 145, Home runs 99. I think we know which stat is going to win this time around.... No trades for us yet, but I may shop around a couple guys here at the deadline.... ELSEWHERE: Finally a trade of note, with Miami getting power-hitting 1B Marcus Dotson from the Yankees for quality swingman Chandler Wynes. Dotson hit 34 HR for Baltimore last year, and has 269 in his career; he's not played much this year, but has produced .284/.346/.410 in limited AB. He'll get a chance to platoon at first and DH for the first place Marlins. Wynes, meanwhile, has been in AAA this year but has plenty of big league experience and will get a chance to stick with the big club.... Detroit has won five in a row to retake first in the Central, while KC has fallen to 8 games behind. And LA of course keeps rolling on, becoming the first team to 70 wins, and opening up their lead over Portland to 11 games.

......

TL;DR Version: An 8-5 finish to the month, and a hard-to-remember 16-9 overall. We righted the ship this month, pushing ourselves to ten games over .500 for the first time, and finally getting some cushion on the teams behind us. Fighting for the division seems unlikely, however, as that series with Texas showed up our season-long weakness: lack of offense. And, sorry folks, I'm not doing anything to fix that right away during this trade deadline. Yes we have some young pitching we could deal; but with upcoming changes this fall, I've decided not to go all in on a playoff push by sending one or several prospects off for a veteran--likely to go free agent anyway--hitter. But I did make one minor deal, swapping out underperforming OF/DH Miguel Tejeda to Atlanta for power reliever Justin Schechter. Tejeda was brought in from Toronto early in the summer, when Medici was out and we weren't hitting for power at all; but in 100 at bats he hit only 2 home runs and fanned 31 times, providing negative value. Schechter's a righty with big stuff and some control issues, but he does allow me to send down one of our not-ready-for-prime-time bullpen arms. Not a big trade by any means, but with some hard decisions coming up this fall, I wanted to hold on to all my cards and keep as many options open as possible.