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Old 06-14-2022, 09:30 PM   #7
MathBandit
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Join Date: Feb 2021
Posts: 1,445
To me this is one of those things where I think it is helpful to take a step back and appreciate it for what it is, because it doesn't actually change anything.

Given that this is noteworthy, I assume people aren't seeing this even once every few years, let alone annually? Probably seems fair to peg it at say 1/500 or rarer then? Now think instead of how often draft picks - even picks in the first couple rounds - never manage to both make it to the show and meaningfully contribute; I'd say maybe at most 60% do?

So if your prospect has a 40% chance of being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things anyways, whether he also has a 0.2% chance of playing football in addition to that 40% doesn't actually change the maths at all. Just my 2c, but if instead of cursing the event you chalk it up as one of the 40% of top prospects that will fail, finding out upfront actually saves you having to invest time and energy into them before you find out they're irrelevant.
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