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Market Size will not change at it did in real life... you will get different results each play through. I ran tests back in OOTP21 and indications were
1 - It is relatively random
2- Increases decreased to almost downright rare as the a historical league neared 2000.
For number 2, I don't know if it was related to the historical year or due to the average Market Size... I was mostly trying to determine if increases were based on success. Also, there is a storyline for Winning the World Series that "should" increase it... but it was broken at the time and not occurring. I say broken because I could see it in the storyline list... but never saw it when winning a world series at the time.
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