[BirdWatcher]

A few of the basic facts:






After an extremely disappointing 1985 season in which the Brewers normally vaunted starting pitching rotation floundered, and it was thought in no small part because of poor defense behind them, the front office sought to make offseason improvements not by changing the names in the rotation but by remaking the defense behind them.

And, here at the All-Star break of the 1986 season, we probably have a large enough sample size to rule that the plan was a good one and has done the trick.

Key acquisitions like 5-time Gold Glove shortstop Willie Romero and 1-time Gold Glove center fielder Danny Hendricks have helped improve the Brewers defense to the point where the team is 3rd in the MGL in ZR and first in (fewest) errors at this stage of the season. Romero's OPS+ is 83 and Hendricks' is 90 but their defense has so improved the team that their relative lack of offensive value is counterbalanced by that.

Not of course that improved defense is the entire story. Surely there has also been some talent development for younger starters like Stephen Brooks (primarily improvement in control) and Eric Fehrenbacher (quite a bit better movement than last season) that comes with big league experience and good coaching.

Another factor is likely that starting catcher Willie Ortega, who is a superlative handler of pitching staffs and overall defensive gem, missed a big chunk of the middle of the season last year with a fractured ankle and having him behind the dish for the majority of games this year has helped the staff a great deal.

Romero was signed to a long-term contract in the offseason not long after being acquired and should be anchoring the infield for years to come. Ortega has already been signed to a contract for next season and has one more year of arbitration eligibility after that. Rumor has it that the team has been working to re-sign Hendricks for next season at least (his last year of arbitration eligibility) but the negotiations stalled a bit when Hendricks declined the initial offer (which was his opening request). But likely he will be signed before long.

Perhaps due to the influence of Romero at short, both veteran second baseman Justin Banks and third baseman Ryan Campbell have been putting up better defensive numbers this season than they did last season. Banks had a ZR of -0.9 last season and is at +1.5 now. Campbell, who committed 29 errors last season with a ZR of -3.5, has made 11 errors at this point of 1986 with a ZR of +1.7.

Now there are questions about whether either of them will be back for the 1987 season. Banks is eligible to be a free agent at the end of this season, and he is well-liked by management, but he is also expected to be quite expensive and he is also 30 years old. One of the Brewers top position player prospects, currently on the big league club, is second baseman Nick Mull, who has Gold Glove defensive potential but is unlikely to be any more than a league-average hitter in the WPK.
And top third base prospect Jeremy Beeson is tearing up AAA (.369/.396/.492), should be a great contact hitter in the WPK, though with not much power or OBP skills, and should be at least a plus defender at third. Ryan Campbell is under team control for two more seasons, but is also 30 and as has been discussed here, has underwhelmed Brewers management in terms of on-field performance.

The outfield is potentially in flux.
We haven't reported this very well, but the former titans of the outfield, 3-time MGL MVP right fielder Antonio Acuna and 5-time All-Star left fielder Val Guzman, are suffering through miserable seasons and getting less and less playing time. Acuna, a potential future Hall of Famer based mostly on his brief but tremendous peak as a player, is not only not producing but has evidenced near catastrophic loss of basic skills at age 33. Having won 3 Gold Gloves in right field, Acuna is now a defensive liability (-2.7 ZR). He is hitting .183/.231/..282. His previous elite speed is now just a bit above average, although he does remain a very savvy base stealer and base runner. His talent drop has been so significant that even Acuna himself expects only to be a bench player and he seems to be perfectly happy with his current insignificant role on the team (he is very unhappy about his performance, at least, as he should be). He has an opt out in his contract at the end of the year, and insiders say that management was sort of hoping he might grow tired of just sitting on the bench and choose to opt out. That is looking unlikely, and he then has 4 more seasons on his contract making an AAV of $700 K (a pretty hefty number at this point of WPK history). Many expect that if Acuna doesn't opt out the team will be forced to simply release him and eat that remaining contract.
Val Guzman does not show evidence of nearly as much skills erosion as Acuna, but he is just hitting .191/.262/.305 in 148 plate appearances this season. Defensively he remains solid enough at age 32 (ZR of -0.4), he still has great speed and has stolen 6 bases without being caught once this season, and 8 of his 25 hits this year have been for extra bases (4 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HR's). He is also considered the best leader in the clubhouse, now that former team captain Ben Flynn has been allowed to move on. But as greatly popular as Val is with both Brewers fans and the front office, the reality is that the team can buyout the last year of his contract, which is next season, and likely will.

Javier Hernandez has been the primary left fielder this season and brings some value with his great speed, acceptable defense, league-average-ish batting, and great hustle. He is not likely the long-term replacement for Guzman in left field though.
And Myles Ford (.269/.315/.479, 104 OPS+) has been a fine 4th outfielder for the team, and is the only acceptable backup for Hendricks in center field currently on the active roster.

Jerry Lillie, of course, is a Rookie of the Year candidate (well, in any season that didn't include Hyeong-uk Chun as a rookie) and at this point has a stranglehold on the starting right field job for the near future, at least.

Looking forward a few seasons though it is hard to predict who might be in the Brewers outfield other than Lillie. One possibility is the Brewers top outfield prospect, center fielder John Bittner, currently playing in AA and who was the starting DH in yesterday's Prospects Game. (He went 0 for 2.) Bittner has the range to stick in center field or to be an elite left fielder (his weak arm would make him less suited for right field) but in spite of his tremendous speed he isn't much of a threat on the base paths and his bat-to-ball skills might hold him back from being a WPK starter. On the other hand he does have some of the best power potential in the system and a plus plus eye. The Brewers have a few other good hit tool, average to poor fielding corner outfield prospects (or semi-prospects) at the upper levels of the minors but the cupboard is a bit bare in the outfield ranks pending how well this year's 2nd round pick Bill Arvayo develops.

So we've talked about most everyone (other than the bullpen) and somehow have neglected first baseman Chris Romines (.327/.362/.423), last year's breakout star for the Brewers. Romines continues to over-achieve his previous reputation as a non-prospect and has turned into a very good contact-first hitter at the WPK level and a strong fielder at first. He is not your prototypical first baseman, but he is your prototypical Denver Brewers first baseman (think Bobby Erbakan and Brett Taranto). There are some bigger boppers coming up through the system (as well as backup first baseman Gene Brasher, who is primarily the team's DH) but for the near future at least expect Romines to be the starter at this position.

Let's wrap this up with just a few quick notes about the bullpen. It's pretty good and likely to just keep getting better. Dan Folk, our closer, is now 22 for 22 in save opportunities this year with an 0.88 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 32 strikeouts to 6 walks and no home runs allowed. In short, he has been dominant and his lack of inclusion in the All-Star squad this year was inexplicable.
Veteran righty and former Rule 5 draft pick Paul Johnson just continues to be a consistent solidifying influence in middle relief and set-up situations.
Willie Ramirez has had a few rough outings which elevated his ERA a bit but profiles pretty similarly to Folk and has a 10.1 K/9.
Fan favorite 30-year old lefty Rand Pinti continues to confound with basically just one pitch, a very good sinker, and is having another strong season.

And with such really fine relief pitching prospects as B.J. Adams, Cesar Perez, and this year's 3rd round pick, Sharaf Sanchez, not far from being big league ready, the 'pen should be solid for the foreseeable future.