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Art Deco · 03-11-2022, 01:04 PM

Can't complain about how things have gone recently with World Series wins in 2023 and 2025 and coming up just short this year. 2027 is going to be something of transitional year, especially with respect to the pitching staff. Tyler Glasnow and Tarik Skubal are free agents (as are Drew Rasmussen and Carter Kieboom). Glasnow was 6/120 to re-sign and although he's worth $20M/year, 6 years is asking a lot considering he's fragile and he's 33. We were very lucky to have him fully healthy over the last 3 seasons and for that kind of money we'll let someone else roll the dice. Skubal is looking for a more reasonable 4/60 and we'll see how free agency goes for him and maybe jump in there.

Also Joe Ryan is due for a raise going into his final year of arbitration and is projected for at least $7.5M. He really wasn't very good last year with all the homers allowed (0.6 WAR) so we'd have to gamble he goes back to the 1.2/1.3 HR/9 seasons he had in the previous two rather than the 2.1 HR/9 he yielded last year. We were probably lucky in 24 and 25 with him as he has 40 movement, though, and I'm going to shop him.

So assuming Glasnow, Skubal, Ryan and Rasmussen are all gone, who's in the rotation? Well Dustin May still has one year left on his deal so he's the ace, and then we have Slade Cecconi, who pitched decently before fading in September. JT Ginn was brilliant in relief but he's capable of starting and I'm considering moving him into the rotation. Reid Detmers is also capable of starting and has an inside track. Finaly, Jared Wetherbee pitched well at Durham after missing the first half of the season with bone chips in his elbow, and the righty acquired from the Angels a few years back in the Willy Adames deal could be ready. Finally we could make a trade for one, we have a bit of OF excess with Greckel, Kjerstad, Robles and Kirilloff and while they all play with the DH, we could find someone else to fill that role.

Elsewhere it should be status quo in the lineup with the exception of #25 overall MLB prospect Kelly Crumpton taking over at 3B for Kieboom. Haven't talked about him much but he has 70 power and hit 18 HR in 316 AB at Durham last year, and he's a two-way player who pitched in Durham's rotation (albeit not great at 4-10, 5.31). Not bad for a 13th-round pick from 2021. Adley Rustchman ain't work the projected $22M in arbitration this year (his final arb year) if he hits like last season but he's a 70 catcher who did wonders with the staff and we may need him to do even more in that department this year. Luke Voit is a free agent of course, so 1B remains up for grabs with the usual suspects Brett Baty, Kody Hoese and Angelo DiSpigna (who missed the last two months at Durham with injury) in the mix. If we deal an OF, one could perhaps DH.

Here are the salaries projected for everyone who isn't making the minimum. Stu Sternberg has given me a payroll of $140M next year, so we can keep everyone listed (including Ryan) and still have about $17M to spend:

I don't know about a few of these guys - Walls is nice but $2.6M is a lot for a utility infielder, and while I'll probably keep Levi Kelly as he too has an outside shot at the rotation I'm not sure either on Vesia.

Awards news: Two Rays that I thought had good shots at awards didn't get them as Ed Howard finished 3rd in Rookie of the Year behind KC's Bill Miranda and Ginn finished 3rd in AL Reliever of the Year behind Minnesota's Marco Raya. Both Howard and Ginn were tops in WAR in their respective categories, but that wasn't good enough.

Cy Young: Detroit's Carlos Duran (16-4, 3.58) won it with Tyler Glasnow a surprising second (9 first-place votes, 14 points behind Duran) and Dustin May third (4 first-place votes). May likely would have won had we ever given him decent run support. In the NL the Cubs' Chad Green was the runaway winner after going 14-9, 2.36 (30 of 32 first-place votes).

MVP: In the AL Jarred Kelenic of Seattle was a unanimous winner and rightfully so after hitting .339-45-133. And it was the same in NL with Ronald Acuna Jr, who won the NL Triple Crown at .340-46-110. Tiger teammates Spencer Torkelson and Marcelo Mayer finished 2nd and 3rd in the AL while San Diego's Fernando Tatis Jr. was 2nd and Cubs' Korean import Dong-Myung Lee 3rd.

November 20: Non-tendered IF Taylor Walls and P Alex Vesia. I saved about $4M and Franklin Dacosta and Jelfry Marte can do their jobs next year, or in the case of Marte if not him then a veteran MI signed on a minor league deal. JT Ginn got about $800K more than I expected in arbitration, DL Hall about $500K and Reid Detmers about $500K so those 3 ate up about half of the money we saved on Walls and Vesia. The bottom line is now we have about $20M to spend on free agents.

December 6: The first notable free agents signed as Detroit's Rony Garcia, who put up 13 WAR over the last 3 years and was top-ranked starter on the market, went to Houston for 6/112. Meanwhile Jacob deGrom returned to the Mets on a 2/23 deal after spending a few years in Houston. He's 38 now and not the pitcher he was earlier in the decade but still is effective. Also former Ray Nick Anderson inked a 1/3.5 deal with the Cardinals.

December 7: The big kahuna was reeled in as the Cardinals went 8/228 for Juan Soto, who had opted out of his deal with Washington. Actually the $28M or so he's being paid is a relative bargain.

December 8: And the first of the Rays free agents signed elsewhere as Tyler Glasnow went to Boston on a 5/74.6 pact. Interestingly Glasnow also signed for Boston in my 2020 save at around this same time, had one great year with the Red Sox then had health issues and lost his effectiveness, essentially forcing Boston to eat most of the contract.

December 18: Added C Diego Cartaya and OF Jose Pena to the 40-man roster.

Rule 5 time again, I still left 4 slots open on the 40-man for potential free agent signings and due to confidence that my Rule 5-eligibles weren't going to be taken. Cartaya of course is ticketed for the bigs in 2028 after Rutschman goes and Pena can play CF and hit for some power, making him semi-valuable.

December 19: Selected P Levi Abbott in the Rule 5 draft from Detroit.

I've played 24 seasons in my 2020 Rays save and 6 in this one and I've never claimed a guy in the Rule 5 draft until now. And we're bringing back a familiar face as Abbott was our #1 pick in 2023 and dealt in early 2024 for Andrew Greckel and Angelo DiSpigna. That deal worked out great for us and now we get Abbott back, whom Detroit left exposed. Obviously he didn't set the world on fire in the Tigers system but my scout still likes him and he still has 3-3.5 star potential. Of course if we want to keep him he has to stay on the MLB roster and while there are rotation slots open he isn't going to take one of them, he'd be our 14th pitcher and use in long relief/mop-up work if he makes the team.

December 24: Longtime Milwaukee SS Luis Guillorme signed a 5/77 deal with Atlanta, while brief former Ray and farmhand of ours for the last several years before becoming a minor league free agent Jack Little signed with St. Louis.

December 26: The Tigers replaced Rony Garcia in their rotation with 2025 AL Cy Young winner Francis Martes on a 6/123 deal.

December 27: Alex Vesia, who spent the last 5 years in our pen, is now a Los Angeles Angel on a 1/2.7 pact.

December 29: Former 2-time World Series winner with the Rays Devin Williams inked a 3/23 deal with the Mets.

December 31: Usually when a team fire-sales a pending free agent, that free agent doesn't go back to their old team but that's what happened with Luke Voit who went back to the Yankees after spending the stretch run and playoffs with us last year. He signed a 1-year, $7.7M deal.

03-11-2022, 01:04 PM	#527
Art Deco Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 7,611	2026-27 Offseason, Part 1 Can't complain about how things have gone recently with World Series wins in 2023 and 2025 and coming up just short this year. 2027 is going to be something of transitional year, especially with respect to the pitching staff. Tyler Glasnow and Tarik Skubal are free agents (as are Drew Rasmussen and Carter Kieboom). Glasnow was 6/120 to re-sign and although he's worth $20M/year, 6 years is asking a lot considering he's fragile and he's 33. We were very lucky to have him fully healthy over the last 3 seasons and for that kind of money we'll let someone else roll the dice. Skubal is looking for a more reasonable 4/60 and we'll see how free agency goes for him and maybe jump in there. Also Joe Ryan is due for a raise going into his final year of arbitration and is projected for at least $7.5M. He really wasn't very good last year with all the homers allowed (0.6 WAR) so we'd have to gamble he goes back to the 1.2/1.3 HR/9 seasons he had in the previous two rather than the 2.1 HR/9 he yielded last year. We were probably lucky in 24 and 25 with him as he has 40 movement, though, and I'm going to shop him. So assuming Glasnow, Skubal, Ryan and Rasmussen are all gone, who's in the rotation? Well Dustin May still has one year left on his deal so he's the ace, and then we have Slade Cecconi, who pitched decently before fading in September. JT Ginn was brilliant in relief but he's capable of starting and I'm considering moving him into the rotation. Reid Detmers is also capable of starting and has an inside track. Finaly, Jared Wetherbee pitched well at Durham after missing the first half of the season with bone chips in his elbow, and the righty acquired from the Angels a few years back in the Willy Adames deal could be ready. Finally we could make a trade for one, we have a bit of OF excess with Greckel, Kjerstad, Robles and Kirilloff and while they all play with the DH, we could find someone else to fill that role. Elsewhere it should be status quo in the lineup with the exception of #25 overall MLB prospect Kelly Crumpton taking over at 3B for Kieboom. Haven't talked about him much but he has 70 power and hit 18 HR in 316 AB at Durham last year, and he's a two-way player who pitched in Durham's rotation (albeit not great at 4-10, 5.31). Not bad for a 13th-round pick from 2021. Adley Rustchman ain't work the projected $22M in arbitration this year (his final arb year) if he hits like last season but he's a 70 catcher who did wonders with the staff and we may need him to do even more in that department this year. Luke Voit is a free agent of course, so 1B remains up for grabs with the usual suspects Brett Baty, Kody Hoese and Angelo DiSpigna (who missed the last two months at Durham with injury) in the mix. If we deal an OF, one could perhaps DH. Here are the salaries projected for everyone who isn't making the minimum. Stu Sternberg has given me a payroll of $140M next year, so we can keep everyone listed (including Ryan) and still have about $17M to spend: I don't know about a few of these guys - Walls is nice but $2.6M is a lot for a utility infielder, and while I'll probably keep Levi Kelly as he too has an outside shot at the rotation I'm not sure either on Vesia. Awards news: Two Rays that I thought had good shots at awards didn't get them as Ed Howard finished 3rd in Rookie of the Year behind KC's Bill Miranda and Ginn finished 3rd in AL Reliever of the Year behind Minnesota's Marco Raya. Both Howard and Ginn were tops in WAR in their respective categories, but that wasn't good enough. Cy Young: Detroit's Carlos Duran (16-4, 3.58) won it with Tyler Glasnow a surprising second (9 first-place votes, 14 points behind Duran) and Dustin May third (4 first-place votes). May likely would have won had we ever given him decent run support. In the NL the Cubs' Chad Green was the runaway winner after going 14-9, 2.36 (30 of 32 first-place votes). MVP: In the AL Jarred Kelenic of Seattle was a unanimous winner and rightfully so after hitting .339-45-133. And it was the same in NL with Ronald Acuna Jr, who won the NL Triple Crown at .340-46-110. Tiger teammates Spencer Torkelson and Marcelo Mayer finished 2nd and 3rd in the AL while San Diego's Fernando Tatis Jr. was 2nd and Cubs' Korean import Dong-Myung Lee 3rd. November 20: Non-tendered IF Taylor Walls and P Alex Vesia. I saved about $4M and Franklin Dacosta and Jelfry Marte can do their jobs next year, or in the case of Marte if not him then a veteran MI signed on a minor league deal. JT Ginn got about $800K more than I expected in arbitration, DL Hall about $500K and Reid Detmers about $500K so those 3 ate up about half of the money we saved on Walls and Vesia. The bottom line is now we have about $20M to spend on free agents. December 6: The first notable free agents signed as Detroit's Rony Garcia, who put up 13 WAR over the last 3 years and was top-ranked starter on the market, went to Houston for 6/112. Meanwhile Jacob deGrom returned to the Mets on a 2/23 deal after spending a few years in Houston. He's 38 now and not the pitcher he was earlier in the decade but still is effective. Also former Ray Nick Anderson inked a 1/3.5 deal with the Cardinals. December 7: The big kahuna was reeled in as the Cardinals went 8/228 for Juan Soto, who had opted out of his deal with Washington. Actually the $28M or so he's being paid is a relative bargain. December 8: And the first of the Rays free agents signed elsewhere as Tyler Glasnow went to Boston on a 5/74.6 pact. Interestingly Glasnow also signed for Boston in my 2020 save at around this same time, had one great year with the Red Sox then had health issues and lost his effectiveness, essentially forcing Boston to eat most of the contract. December 18: Added C Diego Cartaya and OF Jose Pena to the 40-man roster. Rule 5 time again, I still left 4 slots open on the 40-man for potential free agent signings and due to confidence that my Rule 5-eligibles weren't going to be taken. Cartaya of course is ticketed for the bigs in 2028 after Rutschman goes and Pena can play CF and hit for some power, making him semi-valuable. December 19: Selected P Levi Abbott in the Rule 5 draft from Detroit. I've played 24 seasons in my 2020 Rays save and 6 in this one and I've never claimed a guy in the Rule 5 draft until now. And we're bringing back a familiar face as Abbott was our #1 pick in 2023 and dealt in early 2024 for Andrew Greckel and Angelo DiSpigna. That deal worked out great for us and now we get Abbott back, whom Detroit left exposed. Obviously he didn't set the world on fire in the Tigers system but my scout still likes him and he still has 3-3.5 star potential. Of course if we want to keep him he has to stay on the MLB roster and while there are rotation slots open he isn't going to take one of them, he'd be our 14th pitcher and use in long relief/mop-up work if he makes the team. December 24: Longtime Milwaukee SS Luis Guillorme signed a 5/77 deal with Atlanta, while brief former Ray and farmhand of ours for the last several years before becoming a minor league free agent Jack Little signed with St. Louis. December 26: The Tigers replaced Rony Garcia in their rotation with 2025 AL Cy Young winner Francis Martes on a 6/123 deal. December 27: Alex Vesia, who spent the last 5 years in our pen, is now a Los Angeles Angel on a 1/2.7 pact. December 29: Former 2-time World Series winner with the Rays Devin Williams inked a 3/23 deal with the Mets. December 31: Usually when a team fire-sales a pending free agent, that free agent doesn't go back to their old team but that's what happened with Luke Voit who went back to the Yankees after spending the stretch run and playoffs with us last year. He signed a 1-year, $7.7M deal. Last edited by Art Deco; 03-11-2022 at 05:21 PM.