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Garlon · 10-05-2021, 01:06 PM

Regarding these HR results you need to be careful on how you are interpreting them. Mantle and Maris combined for 115 HR in 1104 AB in 1961.

If they had the exact same AB we should expect them to combine for exactly 115 HR in 3.9% of the trials. That is the binomial probability of that occurring. There would then be about a 48% chance that they would end up with less than 115 and a 48% chance they would end up with more than 115 for the season. That is how probability works and the game engine uses probability.

10-05-2021, 01:06 PM	#107
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,313	Regarding these HR results you need to be careful on how you are interpreting them. Mantle and Maris combined for 115 HR in 1104 AB in 1961. If they had the exact same AB we should expect them to combine for exactly 115 HR in 3.9% of the trials. That is the binomial probability of that occurring. There would then be about a 48% chance that they would end up with less than 115 and a 48% chance they would end up with more than 115 for the season. That is how probability works and the game engine uses probability.