Quote:
Originally Posted by Garlon
Remember you can always see the neutralized stats under the real stats for each player.
Maris Real: 61 HR/590 AB = 57 HR/550 AB
Maris Neutralized: 56 HR/590 AB = 53 HR/550 AB
Mantle Real 54 HR/514 AB = 58 HR/550 AB
Mantle Neutralized: 57 HR/514 AB = 61 HR/550 AB
The reason you may be seeing that they do not scale exactly to what you expect per 550 AB is possible because how the game assigns the L/R values.
Notice that per 550 AB I have Mantle at 61 and Maris at 53, a difference of 8 in favor of Mantle, whereas what you show has Mantle at 64 and Maris at 55, a difference of 9 HR, so basically the same thing.
Keep in mind that the park factors for Maris and Mantle in 1961 were slightly different since Mantle batted switch and Maris batted left. This adjustment was built into the neutralized stats themselves. I did the process. I am not seeing anything here that shows any improper adjustments are being made by the game. The game simply assumes Maris is going to face more RHP in the standard environment and that is why the expectation is 55 HR per 550 AB instead of 53 HR per 550 AB that the neutralized statistics provide.
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The editor assigns the overall average rating by weighting L/R values on the basis of 75% of the ABs being vs right handed pitchers. This isn't quite correct on a league wide basis, which is 70ish percent last time I calculated it. So there was a decision made for the editor to go with a 3 to 1 ratio rather than 2 to 1 for averaging purposes.
Maris had 70.0% of his ABs against RHP while Mantle had 67.5% of his ABs against RHP so neither one matches the assumption used for the overall rating in the editor.
If Mantle was at a disadvantage batting right handed in a left handers park then that disadvantage would occur in presumably half of his 167 ABs batting right handed. 84 ABs.
He might be expected to hit 8 HRs in those at bats. As far as I know it's not been stated what park factors were used to create the neutralized stats file, so it's not possible to calculate the effect of park factors in the neutralized file. However looking at the factors in era_ballparks batting right handed in Yankee Stadium may have cost him a home run. (That's "one"_)
I can't estimate what comparative advantage exists in expected HRs in the editor however it's clear both players ratings are boosted by editor's assumed L/R ratio.
In aggregate none of these factors are sufficient to explain a plus 8 or 9 HR advantage for Mantle when he should have a 6 or 7 HR deficit.