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Old 09-18-2021, 05:39 PM   #36
Garlon
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 4,268
A reason I became interested in neutralized stats was the Willie Davis entry on pgs 740-743 of the Bill James Historical Abstract. Since Willie Davis spent most of his career with the Dodgers there is the question of whether he would have been a .300 in a neutral environment. Well, Bill James translates his career stats to a 750-run environment using the quadratic formula and has him as a .302 hitter.

The quadratic method was used for previous generations of the neutralized stats for OOTP, but the new neutralized stats do not use that method, rather it uses the discrete BABIP/2B/3B/HR park factors for Bats R or Bats L or overall for Bats Both. If you use baseball reference there is an option to neutralize the player stats to different run scoring environments using the quadratic method. The default there is 723 runs per 162, whereas Bill James used 750 runs per 162 in his book.

Willie Davis Real stats .279/.311/.412 OPS .723

BBR 723 runs scored per season .297/.329/.436 OPS .765

OOTP .283/.314/.431 OPS .745

Where Davis gains by adjusting his stats through discrete factors is his slugging.

2B/3B/HR

Real 395/138/182
OOTP 422/161/205

This is because Dodger stadium was not really affecting batting average as much as slugging.

The quadratic method assumes the run environment affects everything proportionately.

So with the neutralized stats we do not have Davis as a .300 hitter, but he does gain nearly 20 points of slugging.

In my recent game he was also +92 ZR in LF and +99 ZR in CF, so that is 191 runs saved on defense, which is about 19 wins.
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