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I can agree w/ several things you're saying here, but in regards to point #2, the variance in baseball is what makes the accuracy of baseball simulations difficult to assess. OOTP has done a good job of exploting this.
I think it's easier to just accept OOTP has some foundational fun aspects to it, but don't expect it to be historically accurate. It's just meant for fun and amusement and not as a series baseball strategy game (although it's not completely w/o strategy, of course).
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