[BirdWatcher]

As we enter the final month of the 1982 regular season I thought it would be a good time to stop and not only update the standings and basic leaderboards and spend a bit of time analyzing the pennant race possibilities (and maybe looking towards the future of some of the also ran teams).
(And in the next post I believe I will discuss the primary candidates for the league MVP and Pitcher of the Year awards.)

So, first, here are the standings as of September 1st:




And the SJL individual statistical leaders:





Now the same for the MGL:





Now, going division by division let's discuss the pennant races:


The Shoeless Joe League West:

As was the case since pretty early in the season, this is a 2-team race between the teams with the best record in the WPK- the reigning SJL champs the San Antonio Keys and the El Paso Dawgs, who last won the pennant in 1978, the year they won their only WPK championship.

Although San Antonio has led the division most of the summer, the Dawgs closed the gap over time and then moved into a tie with the Keys on August 29th. San Antonio does maintain the edge in run differential at +156 while El Paso's run differential is +137.

San Antonio is driven by a murderer's row of a lineup, featuring 4-time MVP and future first ballot Hall of Famer Bud Lindsay, one of the frontrunners for this years SJL MVP, John Mussaw, slugging first baseman John Freeman, speedy lead off hitter Zach McClelland, dangerous plus contact and plus power hitting right fielder Mike Shervey hitting cleanup, and breakout star third baseman Ryan Campell (hitting .351/.440/.577 since being promoted from AAA in early July.) There is no weak spot in this lineup. On the other hand, though, their defense is poor (in spite of having Gold Glove winning middle infielders) and their pitching staff is merely average. While their top 3 starting pitchers are good, the rotation isn't deep. The bullpen is anchored by one of the most successful closers- and bigger jerks- in the game in Pat Bergeron. It also features a few younger pitchers with good potential so the future doesn't look bad at all. The teams top prospect is a pitcher who is at AAA, so pitching reinforcement is on the way. But for this season it is the offense that will likely dictate how far this team goes.

El Paso, on the other hand, is the stingiest team in the SJL in terms of runs allowed. Their starting rotation has been very good but is also old and injury prone though they have a bit of insurance with talented 22-year old lefty Brandon Walker, a future starter, in their bullpen. (He is talented, durable, and has great stamina, though reportedly his baseball smarts are a bit lacking.) The Dawgs also have much better team defense than the Keys and are second in the league in team ZR. They also have great infield defense up the middle even if not the superstar caliber shortstop and second baseman that the Keys have. And it can't be said that El Paso's offense is weak this year either as they are 2nd in the league in runs scored (after San Antonio, of course), 1st in batting average, and in the top 3 (mostly 2nd) in almost every other offensive category. Their lineup is older than San Antonio's and without the star power, but veteran outfielder Jose Gutierrez, a free agent signing in the off season, is a legitimate league MVP candidate and great team captain, and 36-year old right fielder Jim Decker, after many undistinguished years in the league, broke out by leading the league in homers last season and is on pace for a 4.3 WAR season this year. El Paso has two fine infield prospects at single A and a pretty strong starting pitching prospect on that same team, so some injection of younger talent is coming. But given the age and lack of durability in their starting rotation, there is some urgency for them to win this year or it might be a few more years before they have another good chance.

Now for the also-rans.
Milwaukee has several good young pitchers now in their rotation and in the 'pen who haven't been helped out by their poor offense and porous defense. They have a few more promising pitchers on the way up through the system and if they can develop, or acquire, some better position players they have a chance to start rising in the standings in the next few seasons. They have seen the emergence of team captain Jon Ehrhardt, a 26-year old right fielder, this season and Ehrhardt is competing for the SJL batting title with a slash line of .350/.380/.529.

The Chicago Fire, in spite of playing in one of the best pitchers' parks in the league, are 10th in the SJL in runs allowed. Veteran right hander Daniel Riha (10-5, 2.69), their top starter, is having a career year and is an SJL Pitcher of the Year candidate. They have the #2 overall best WPK prospect Mike Low in their bullpen and he should be moving into the rotation next season. And 26-year old center fielder Jose Flores (.296/.392/.466) has emerged as an unheralded star in the league. But mostly Chicago still seems far from contending soon.

The Seattle Alligators, much like Milwaukee, have some really talented young pitchers, led by left handed starter Steve Rosales, who was the #2 top prospect before graduating to the big leagues. With righty Jake Webb, these two could present the opposition with a formidable 1-2 combination to face. And John Stone, the #9 top prospect, is waiting in the wings at AAA and also has top of the rotation potential. But this team has the worst offense in the league. The lineup is mostly young and has some potential, and they have an exciting young centerfielder (Rodrigo de la Torre) on his way up (currently performing very well at single A), so the future isn't necessarily bleak.

And finally, the Houston Cavaliers. They are the only team to be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention this year (and that just happened yesterday.) Their biggest weakness has been that they have allowed the most runs of any team in the SJL. Which is a bit odd, given that they play in a great pitchers' park and have some great young arms at the top of their rotation in Jacob Whittemore and Jack Hettinger. But they are a poor defensive team and their pitching staff is thin. On the other hand, they have some really talented young position players and 21-year old left fielder Alex Raymos looks like a future league MVP. Their top prospects are all position players though, so this team is going to have to find a way to build their pitching staff if they are going to compete anytime soon.

The Shoeless Joe League East:

The Washington Night Train have led the way most of the season, which was not expected (in preseason predictions, they were picked to finish 4th). Granted the SJL East has been a weaker division and their win differential is just +69. Still, it should be noted that the Night Train have been in a good team in nearly every facet of the game, other than base running. Their pitching rotation has been keyed by a few very talented young arms (Eric Bisbey and Dusty Swarthout) with some solid veterans rounding out the rotation. The loss of veteran Jose Casillas recently though will leave them potentially vulnerable down the stretch. On the offensive side, 35-year old veteran first baseman Luis Gonzales (.338/.386/.543) is having a possible MVP season. They have been without center fielder Rick Downey, also in the midst of a great season, since mid-August (torn ankle ligaments) and he isn't expected back until the very end of the regular season, but should they make the post-season he is an important piece of this offense.

The Philadelphia Mud Hens are the team in the best position to take advantage of any slump on the part of Washington. Philly's pitching has been their strength and veteran lefty Parker Rayfield (11-8, 2.89) is a candidate to win his first SJL Pitcher of the Year award. Young left-hander Ron Carmouche (11-6, 3.05) has also been very good but is considered a serious injury risk. The bullpen has been suspect but it does include a future possible starting pitching star in 21-year old Bill Hritz (another lefty). On the offensive side, 26-year old Mike Florack (.333/.408/.522), a fan favorite, is an MVP candidate. And veteran star Xiao-mei Mah (.318/.399/.444), having now moved from second base to first base, is no longer at the top of his game but remains a very fine hitter. Philly is injury free at this time and had the best month of their season in August (17-11) so they might be primed to make a run at the pennant down the stretch.


The Pittsburgh Roadrunners, the reigning SJL East champs, are now without the services of their superstar, 2-time league MVP, right fielder Matt Van der Heyden. But it doesn't stop there. They also have been missing their fine young center fielder Brendan Beaver for most of the season with serious shoulder inflammation, and 3-time All-Star left fielder Larry Leshane who was lost for the season when he broke a bone in his elbow in Spring Training. Not to mention several injuries to less important players, including losing 25-year old starting pitching prospect J.J. Stambach to a torn labrum in mid-August. On the bright side, 26-year old catcher Kevin Broadbent (.323/.412/.542) should be in the league MVP finalists discussion and 27-year old first baseman Nick Johnson (.361/.424/.459) remains one of the best pure hitters in the game. While Pittsburgh cannot be totally counted out yet, it is starting to look like a wait 'til next year situation for the Roadrunners.

The Jacksonville Wolf Pack[/I] have a pretty fine offense and poor pitching, although veteran southpaw starting pitcher Edgar Lira (17-3, 2.40), not considered one of the games good guys (Disruptive) is likely the leading candidate for the SJL Pitcher of the Year award. Their 25-year old first baseman Paul Lewis (.311/.384/.516) is leading the way offensively and has hit 32 doubles to go with his 20 homers. Their two top prospects are good hitting position players so the pitching staff may suffer for awhile.

The Boston Berserkers statistically look like a better team than their record indicates (and indeed, at -6 run differential, they are -6 in terms of expected wins as well.) Not much stand out about Boston- they are a middle of the road team with middle of the road talent. Kyle Adams (.298/.380/.512), their 25 year old first baseman, is an exception and has potential future MVP talent. And they have the 8th ranked farm system in the WPK, so better days might be ahead. But not anytime soon likely.

And finally, the Columbus Whalers. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. For the first decade plus of WPK history, the Whalers were the class of the SJL, and in particular a factory producing great pitcher after great pitcher. They still have at least two great pitchers- lefthanded starter Luis Ramirez (9-13, 2.83), a perennial Pitcher of the Year candidate, and closer Jamar Clay (10-2, 18 saves, 2.41). But they are 8th in runs against in the SJL so it is hardly the dominant staff it once was. And they have poor offense and bad defense behind them. Can't blame their demise on veteran right fielder John Kantlehner (.341/.379/.478) or fan favorite 26-year old first baseman Luis Hernandez (.332/.369/.506) but other than that they have little to be proud of. Their top 3 prospects are all pitchers, but they aren't all that impressive, and the farm system ranks 16th out of 24. So it may be some time before the Whalers are mighty again.


Now on to the Moonlight Graham League West:

I don't think we need to spend much time talking about the Denver Brewers here, as that is mostly what is talked about in this thread. But suffice it to say that while San Antonio and El Paso have better records thus far, Denver leads the way in all of the WPK in run differential at +183. They are first in the MGL in runs scored as well as runs allowed, not to mention a host of other categories. They have underachieved just a bit and taking back the MGL West pennant is not a sure thing by any means.

The Portland Wild Things, the reigning WPK champs, are making their move after a slow start to the season, and they went 20-8 in August to get to within 3 games of Denver. Portland is a well rounded team with a strong offense, fine pitching, and elite defense. They have two of the best young defenders in the game at key positions, with shortstop Willie Romero the best glove in the game (30.8 ZR) and 21-year old center fielder Quincy Schultz (14.1 ZR, 14 outfield assists). Both of these players also have good bats and are MGL MVP candidates. Starting pitching ace Joe Barbour (9-11, 2.93) is also the team captain and 23-year old #2 starter Ruben Ramirez (8-7, 2.91) is unheralded but should start to get noticed soon. Don't count out the reigning champs. This is a good team.

The San Francisco Velocity surged in July with an 18-9 record but took a step back again in August when they went 16-11. They are talented but tend to underachieve, possibly because some of their biggest stars, like left fielder and MVP candidate Cameron Olsen (.317/.378/.531), do not promote harmony in the clubhouse. (They have 2 disruptive players, including Olsen, 3 unmotivated players, including their talented center fielder Matt Christensen, 1 selfish player, 2 outspoken players, and no real leader.) Staff ace Jon Harrington (15-9, 2.79) is a Pitcher of the Year candidate. They are 2nd in the league in runs scored and 3rd in runs against, and given that they play in the best pitchers park in the MGL, their offense is probably underrated (this is a dangerous lineup!) while the pitching staff may have a slightly inflated reputation. But if they fall short again it may be mostly because this isn't a group that pulls in the same direction.

The Los Angeles Spinners are the fat cats of the WPK, with a huge market and the most money to spend. And they aren't very good. They are 7th in runs scored and 10th in runs against in the MGL. They do have a couple of very good young players in 22-year old left fielder Chris Corley (.325/.367/.510) and 25-year old starting pitcher Mike McLaughlin (9-12, 4.19, but has been a bit unlucky). And they have the 6th ranked farm system in the WPK. With their resources they should be able to parlay these strengths into a winning club again before long. But 1982 is a lost season for the Spinners.

The [I]St. Louis Redbirds weren't a very good team before they lost their superstar third baseman Steve Whitehead to injury (torn rib cage muscle) in early June, but that was certainly a factor that kept them from being even respectable this season. Whitehead is currently rehabbing in AAA so he'll be back before long, but for the Redbirds the season is essentially over already. Slugging left fielder J.J. Hebert (.350/.431/.606) has flourished in Whitehead's absence and is an MVP candidate, but there is little else to be excited about in St. Louis. And with the 15th ranked farm system, it might be some time before the expansion Redbirds are legitimate contenders.

The Phoenix Speed Devils. Are the Phoenix Speed Devils. They have lost over 100 games in 3 of the past 5 seasons. And the 2 where they didn't, they lost 97 games in. That is about the pace they are on this season. They do have the 3rd best farm system in the game. So maybe better days are coming? (Center field prospect Dan Johnson is the #1 prospect in the WPK, but he is only 19 and currently playing in short season single A.) Let's move along.


The Moonlight Graham League East:

The Brooklyn Aces enter September at the top of the weakest division in the WPK. Hurray for them. After an 18-8 July they went 11-16 in August. And still hold onto first. Because, you know, bad division. They do have a couple of veteran Jose's (Hernandes and Mendoza) at the top of their rotation who are having nice seasons. And veteran first baseman Danny Salvador (.311/.403/.511) keeps rolling at age 34. They aren't a bad team. They aren't a great team. They will likely win the MGL East. Hurray for them.

Then again, maybe the Oklahoma City Diamond Kings, who came out of nowhere with a 20-7 August, are a team of destiny in the MGL East. They are 11th in the MGL in runs scored, so that doesn't bode well. But they have a strong pitching staff with youngsters like Mike Piles (14-8, 2.96, but fragile) and All-Star David Martin (13-12, 3.28) starting to come into their own. Second baseman Justin Banks (.307/.350/.455) is a fine player at age 26. But their bullpen is weak and their lineup underpowered. It would be a nice story if their surge continued in September. But probably not likely to happen.

The Detroit Falcons, having been the doormat of the MGL for the first decade plus of the league's existence, were starting to look like a team on the rise a few seasons ago. And then it just sort of fizzled. They have had bounce-back years from center fielder John Hemmah (.313/.397/.392) and first baseman Byron Whitehead (.329/.341/.418) but overall the offensive is poor and has the least over the fence power in the league and, having lost ace Aaron McNally (9-4, 2.51) for 2 months, the pitching is mediocre at best. McNally is back, but it might be too late for the Falcons to contend. Maybe next year.

The Baltimore Lords have had an up and down season, with an excellent record in April (17-6), a good record in July (15-10) and losing records in all of the other months, including a disastrous 9-19 August. There is really no area of the game where they stink and no area where they are very good. They are a mediocre team by definition. Now, to be fair, 21-year old left handed starter Julio Michelena (15-8, 3.33) is a guy who stands out as one to watch. And 27-year old left fielder John Tobiason (.323/.379/.573) has hit 26 bombs, which puts him among the league leaders in that category. But with a middle of the pack farm system and not much else to get excited about, these two might be playing on a losing team for the foreseeable future.

The Charlotte Sting are last in the MGL in runs scored in spite of having some good team power (110 home runs, 6th in the league.) Former Brewer Eric Hammock (.319/.388/.545) has led the way on offense and leads the WPK in home runs with 29. Their bullpen, led by arguably the best reliever in the game, Vinny Arreola (30 saves, 1.13 ERA), has been pretty great. The starting rotation is just okay, though 23-year old Roman Palmer (12-13, 4.72) certainly has potential to become very good in time. Yeah, not much else to say about the sting-less Sting.

And, finally, the Montreal Royals. The Royals went to the Kinsella Classic Series in their first year of existence (1980) with an 82-80 record. Because, again, bad division. And since then they have performed more like an expansion club is expected to. Veteran first baseman Chase Moeller (.293/.343/.480) is having another fine season. And closer Edgar Cruz (26 saves, 2.19 ERA) is one of the best in the game. But there is no reason to expect much out of this team in the near future.


EDIT: Apologies- these massive posts can get pretty tricky and take me a very long time to complete. And somehow in the midst of this a good bit of this got unintentionally italicized. In an effort to fix it, I have just made it worse. So, I'm leaving it as it is because I don't want to destroy the hours of work I put into this. Please just ignore the silly italicization where it doesn't seem to make sense.