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As an addition, I took the league totals from the current season to create a “Joe Average” player. He’s a guy who on average will hit with a .257/.326/.405 line with 16 or 17 HRs. I ran a hundred seasons of 650 PA for Joe. The results show just how much random noise there is even with that many plate appearances.
Joe went everywhere from a pathetic line of .212/.294/.331 up to an All-Star level of .296/.366/.539. Joe’s HRs ranged from 8 to 30, walks from 41 to 73, and Ks from 96 to 149.
I’m not saying that the game doesn’t nerf players’ ratings from season to season (I honestly don’t know if they do or not), but the reality is that dumb luck can have a huge impact on even a full season of stats.
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