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Bub13 · 08-15-2021, 06:32 PM

The best thing I can say about spring training is that it's over. We finished 13-17, winning six of our last eight after sending down the not ready for prime timers. We had trouble hitting and scoring, but got mostly solid pitching. (A portent for the coming season? Well, stay tuned.) No, the really worrisome part of the spring was a nasty outbreak of injury-itis. Eight players missed most or part of March, with some of them going on extended vacations, unfortunately. In order of seriousness, you have:

#2 SP Mike Pearse -- out for 11 months. He also missed all of 2052 with the same injury (torn UCL)
#4 SP Andy Burke -- out for 12-13 months. Burke and Carbajal (read on) stabilized a faltering rotation last season
#3 SP Danny Carbajal -- out for 5-6 weeks. Yippee
MR Orlando Silva -- out for 8 months. Was a dark horse candidate this spring, and threw well as a mid-season recall last year
SS J.J. Simmons -- dtd for another week. Hit better than he has in two years this spring; should be 100% shortly
DH Jules Medici -- missed 3/4 of March, but is back in time for opening day. Please don't be a sign of impending fragility
MR G.J. Joe -- out for 3 months. Prospect was throwing really well this spring, but hopefully this won't hurt us or AAA Santa Barbara
OF Josh Hed -- healthy again, but missed 1/2 of the spring

While only our rotation is currently wracked with pain, I of course worry that this is a bad omen for the coming season. Luckily, our farm system is still pretty deep; and now those shiny new toys will get a shot to see what they got. Plus that's depth I can mine for trades later, should I go that route instead. So with no further ado, here is the 2055 Opening Day roster for Your Hawaii Islanders:

C Mike Covington, 25, L; $4.5M thru 2055; .257/.315/.480, 20 HR, 1.4 WAR. A second consecutive slow start for Cov in '54, and while he picked up the pace late, he didn't match his overall numbers from '53. Solid receiver, just missed a Gold Glove imho. Will be pushed by the new guy, and we'll see how he responds in a contract year.

C Jamie Collins, 24, L; minor league contract; .260/.363/.460, 16 HR, 1.7 WAR in AA and AAA. Beat out poor-hitting Bentley Kolb for the backup spot. Ranks as the #26 prospect in MLB. Like Cov, a LHB so no more platoon here, like we've had with Kolb, et al, in recent years. Scouts say he's still growing, with solid power but less contact than earlier projections. Average defensively.

1B Josh Matson, 31, S; $11.5M thru '57, then two TOs; .297/.356/.448, 12 HR, 0.4 WAR. Hit nearly 30 points below his career average, his power dropped in half, and WAR was hurt by a really poor defensive month spent at 2B. We need him to rebound and show that someone over the age of 30 on this team can still hit. (I'm looking at you, J.J.)

DH Jules Medici, 24, R; $17.9M+ thru '60, then opt-out; .343/.437/.645, 47 HR, 5.9 WAR. The heart of the offense, we'll live and die at the plate with him. Fully earned his new long-term contract, which will keep him here thru '62 if he doesn't opt out. Hard worker, team leader, fan favorite. Too good to be true?

2B Lucas Tipping, 23, R; $500k (auto); .200/.276/.383, 5 HR in 115 AB (also .248, 10 HR in 222 AAA AB). The #34 prospect in MLB is getting his shot in the starting lineup after a solid spring. Doesn't do any one thing at a high level, but has no holes either. Still growing, and projects as a decent hitter with some power, maybe enough for 20 HR a season. Defense is above average, but not trophy-level. Like I said: no holes. The kind of guy who should go unnoticed most of the time because he's just doing his job.

3B Caleb Royer, 27, R; $4.25M thru '55 (arb); .298/.316/.530, 32 HR, 1.8 WAR. Offense was fine, but dropped from a really solid (.326/.352/.601) 2053 season. Good hitter across-the-board, except that he will not take a walk (35 in two full seasons). Will probably never be a plus fielder, but improved enough to not be at the bottom of the charts. Strong arm covers some of his fielding sins. As he's arbitration eligible in the fall, this is essentially a contract year for him.

3B/1B Lua Ulkini, 26, L; $1.1M thru '55 (arb); .283/.357/.425, 3 HR, 0.3 WAR, 113 AB. Two seasons in and he's become a solid utility bat, and might see some more time as a defensive sub for Royer against RHP. Depending on how much he might earn moving forward, he'll either get more playing time or a free agent this fall. Doesn't rate high enough to make regular starts, but has produced when called upon.

IF Kevin Kelley, 24, R; $800k (arb); .228/.331/.286, 2 HR, -1.4 WAR. Played more (311 AB) due to injuries, and his hitting suffered but most surprisingly he was a disaster at short (-7.9 ZR, .926 EFF). Didn't hit well in camp but made the roster over prospect Bill Gamboa due to his ability on the left side of the infield. (Gamboa doesn't have the arm for SS or 3B.) A good role player and a plus in the clubhouse, he could be the first man out if we struggle early and need to change things up.

SS J.J. Simmons, 32, R; $25M thru '56 (opt out, then thru '60); .234/.326/.278, 0 HR, -0.2 WAR. Once was a sparkplug in the offense, but has really struggled for two seasons now. He's boosted somewhat by his OBP, lack of strikeouts, speed, and fielding. Still, a .234 average and negative WAR was a major part in our offensive woes last year. I rolled the dice on his last long-term contract, and it's starting to look like that's coming up snake eyes.

LF Josh Hed, 26, R; $500k (arb); .283/.336/.500, 18 HR, 1.4 WAR, 374 AB. Didn't so much seize the starting nod in left in camp, as rather it sort of devolved onto him. Missed nearly half the seaon in '54 but was productive for most of his healthy time. With a pile of youngsters lining up behind him, however, his role on the team will be completely contingent on how he starts the season. Perhaps the best fielding OF (after maybe Espino), but his so-so arm limits him to left.

CF Joe Lynn, 26, R; $7.8M thru '56; .323/.383/.456, 6 HR, 14 triples, 68 SB, 4.5 WAR. Leadoff catalyst and has been remarkably consistent in his four years as a starter. Little power but is truly gifted everywhere else. Has a team option for next year--which we'll execute--but right now is asking for a long-term extension in excess of $20M per season. Even if Simmons opts out, saving us some cash, I'm not sure I want to turn right around and sign another guy until well into his thirties. Also, top prospect Brian Hassell is lurking...

RF Doug Pederson, 26, L; $4M thru '55 (arb); .306/.434/.518, 10 HR, 2.0 WAR, 222 AB. Positives: can rake with the best of them, for power and average; no slouch on the basepaths; team sparkplug. Negatives: becoming oddly immobile in the field, even at 26, despite good running speed; wants an extension at over $20M per for eight years; hasn't yet stayed healthy through an entire season. If he can stay on the field and keep hitting this year, we'll arbitrate him in the fall and see what our $$$ situation looks like afterwards.

OF Erik Bennetsen, 24, R; $500k (auto); .301/.326/.518, 4 HR, 83 AB (also .320 in 357 AA/AAA at bats). Didn't hit in the spring, ceding left field back to Hed. My scouts say he's better than Josh, however, and he'll definitely get some AB in April as I feel like the competition for LF is still open. Had hopes of seeing him make a mark as a two-way guy until be broke his elbow while pitching and missed all of '53.

OF Nick Gase, 25, R; $500k (arb); .316/.454/.500, 7 HR, 2.4 WAR, 206 AB. Showed more power than expected, filling in capably after Hed went down last summer. Wants to start and will push the Hed/Bennetsen duo, as well as seeing some time at 1B and DH. If he could only hit for power with regularity he'd be a shoo-in.

OF Diego Espino, 24, R; $500k (arb); .248/.320/.487, 11 HR, 0.1 WAR, 193 AB. Another of our young logjam of outfielders, he hasn't hit well enough to get more playing time yet. Being a gifted fielder and a team co-captain keeps him around for now, even if his batting hasn't developed as promised. One of those rare international FA signings that actually paid off.

OUTLOOK: On paper, at least, we should get a ton of hits, but it remains to be seen if we'll be dynamic enough to plate a lot of runs. Sound familiar? Pederson's injury and down seasons from several guys kept our runs total much lower than expected in '54, and it wouldn't shock me to see more of the same, injuries notwithstanding. There isn't much change to the lineup, although rookies Tipping (2B) and Bennetsen (OF) will be expected to produce. Bennetsen in particular will get the first crack if Hed is slow out of the gate, although if Gase keeps producing he might force me to make a roster move. And I'm intrigued enough by Collins' bat to see if he can take any games away from Covington behind the plate. I'll feel a lot better if the usual suspects produce, and if Simmons and Matson can return to form. If not...there could be bigger changes next off-season.

......

SP Matt Waugh, 28, L; $35M+ thru '60 (then a PO); 21-5, 3.14, 224 IP, 256 K, 7.9 WAR. Two seasons, two Cy Young trophies. He was nearly unhittable early on, and for some of that stretch was the only SP pitching well at all. Regressed in mid-season but came on strong late and led us into the playoffs. Will become the second Islander pitcher to make three consecutive opening day starts, after the great Leon Casillas in '39-'41. He has to stay healthy and deliver for us, period.

SP Mike Bader, 26, R; $8.75M thru '55 (arb); 7-13, 5.20, 177 IP, 116 K, 3.2 WAR. Bottomed out last year, but he wasn't alone. He must bounce back for us, especially as he'll really be playing for his contract. I'm not inclined to pay someone over $10M a season to be subpar. Pitched well in camp, so I'm cautiously optimistic he can regain the form he showed his first two seasons.

SP Josh Irvin, 26, R; $2.1M thru '55 (arb); 2-9, 7.20, 90 IP, 53 K, 0.1 WAR. Yes, another upcoming arbitration case, and yes another pitcher who blew up last year. A finesse guy with excellent control, every stat trended way downward for him in '54. And to continue the running theme: yes, he must bounce back for us to succeed this year. I sent him down last year after 16 mostly terrible starts, and while he was okay in AAA, he didn't earn a recall. He was excellent in camp, but really just needs to be average or slightly better to keep me happy.

SP Daniel Croft, 24, L; $500k (auto); 0-1, 0.41, 22 IP, 4 starts in AAA. Our erstwhile #1 pitching prospect missed nearly the entire season in '54, which cost him an MLB debut given how awful our pitching was early on. While he doesn't appear to have lost anything after his injury, he did slide down to our #4 pitching prospect, a curious thing. (And no, the three guys now above him didn't take big jumps.) Has a five-pitch repertoire and excellent stamina; groundballer; nothing else really stands out. Looked good in camp, but we'll see...

SP Travis Harris, 23, R; minor league money; 9-10, 2.98, 182 IP, 138 K, 27 starts in AA/AAA. Another low-ball finesse guy, looks very similar to Irvin. It's a broken record, but he too had a very strong camp and fully earned his major league debut. Will try to get by without a true fastball (cutter/curve/change arsenal). Sits at #44 in MLB's prospect rankings. (Croft is #37, btw.)

CL Nate Kearns, 29, R; $1.4M thru '55; 6-4, 2.72, 19 SV, 92 IP, 104 K, 1.9 WAR. Took home the Hoyt Wilhelm trophy after essentially 1/2 of a season as closer. He'll get a chance at it from the get-go this year. A flame-throwing sidearming groundballer, a lovely combo. Walks a bit more than I'd like (4 per 9 IP), but he usually makes up for it by striking out everyone else.

SU Manny Reyes, 22, R; minor league cash; 13-8, 4.68, 28 starts in A ball. Making the big leap from A ball after a very strong camp. Like Kearns, a fireballing groundball guy with some control issues. Wants to start, but not with that sad changeup, Manny. Like Travis Harris, was a supplemental round pick in the '51 draft, where we took a ton of pitchers early. (Others were the injured Andy Burke, and minor leaguers Elias Tena, Larry Hensley, Nick Lee, and John Loeb.)

SU Jordan Ruiz, 25, L; $850k (arb); 5-4, 2.03, 10 SV, 49 IP, 58 K, 1.4 WAR. Good enough to close, and a big piece of our solid bullpen. Struggled some in camp, but I expect him to round into form out of the gate. One of two lefties in the pen.

MR M-H Yaung, 38, L, $1.2M thru '55; 10-0, 0 SV, 3.32, 79 IP, 77 K, 1.4 WAR. The World's Tallest Korean is back for another year, with me hoping he still has something left in the tank. Ks were way down last year, and BABIP way up, so... you tell me why you won't be surprised to see him buried in AAA by July.

MR Yoshi Watanabe, 23, R, $800k (auto); 8 games in AAA last year after an elbow injury in camp. Breaking my rule against flyball pitchers since Turtle had the best camp of all our middle relief candidates. Power pitcher with a snappy fastball/slider combo, he's got a number of guys nipping at his heels should he start slow out of the gate.

MR Sam Bohlen, 27, R, $1.29M thru '55; 3-4, 2 SV, 4.94, 71 IP, 81 K, 0.7 WAR. Came over in our silly mega-trade with the Cubs last year. Started slow but came on late, eventually earning a solid spot in a setup role. Pitched a lot in camp, got better as the month went on; stuck around largely because of his contract and my unwillingness to let him go for nothing. Sidearmer.

OUTLOOK: Despite our injuries this is still a solid unit. If Bader and Irvin recover past form, we could have the best rotation in the game, although not one that will overpower hitters. The bullpen should be quality.

Injured: SS J.J. Simmons (dtd, five days); SP Mike Pearse (11 months), Andy Burke (12 months), and Danny Carbajal (5-6 weeks); RP Orlando Silva (8 months)

Waiting in the wings: C Bentley Kolb, 2B/SS Bill Gamboa, IF Jim Pfeifer, SS Jake Moore, OF Russ Venters and Chase Thompson. SP John Loeb, Gleb Mihalkovsky, and Ken Taylor; RP Brad Cahill, Jonathon Sitzler, Phil Bishop, and Anthony Booker. None were all that impressive in camp (even the ones who played a lot for us last season) but will be on the speed dial when injuries/incompetencies arise. Also watching AA OF Brian Hassell, seventh ranked prospect in baseball.

......

BNN has some pretty interesting predictions they unveiled today. The AL East figures to be wide open, with only a few games separating Boston, Tampa, Miami, and New York. Can't disagree. In the Central, Detroit leads with 91 games, but surprisingly they have the White Sox slipping dramatically from their 112-win 2054 to just 79 wins this year. (Why? Pitching: offense figures to be 2nd in the league, pitching 2nd-worst.) KC looks to figure in the wild card race. As for the West, Texas pulls away with 106 wins, but they show us as second in the AL with 96 wins, mostly on the backs of league-best pitching. I'm optimistic here... On the individual front, California 1B William Swanson returns to prominence (.322/56/150), while Texas SP Bobby Daniel wins 23 with a studly 3.23 ERA.

Over in the NL, it's Washington in the East (from Philly), and St Louis in the Central (taking a tight race with Chicago and Cincinnati). But LA figures to be the cream of the NL crop again, winning 99 games and again running away with the West by a wide margin over Arizona. Philadelphia again figures to be the most interesting team in the league, scoring 867 runs (best in the NL), but allowing 857 (by far the worst in the NL, and nearly the worst in MLB). Tipped for outstanding seasons are Cincy 3B Heath Lewellen (.308/63/135), Brooklyn 2B Mauro Barbiusa (.291/60/133), and LA's ace Everett Cronk (19-9, 2.83, 241 K).

For us? BNN says we'll score a lot but won't hit many home runs, and we'll have the AL's best pitching stats. I think that's pretty spot on, and very similar to last season as we didn't add any real power to our lineup, and we also didn't lose any major players. What will be telling, ultimately, comes down to three areas. 1) Power hitting. Medici figures to rake again; Pederson could, if he can stay healthy; Royer's power bat keeps him employed, so he needs to hit 30 again; and Matson, Hed, Covington, and rookie Tipping all need to--and can--add 15-20 dingers at a minimum. Home runs aren't everything but we need to be solid here to compete. 2) Starting pitching. Waugh was a beast last year, but veterans Skiff, Bader, and Irvin stunk right from the start. Solid #2 Mike Pearse is out for the year, as is sophomore Andy Burke, so our two rookies need to be solid, and we need comebacks from Bader and Irvin. 3) Health. Every team wants to stay healthy, of course. But we're already starting the year behind the curve a bit, with two SP and an RP out for the season. If we lose one or two power bats and another SP (esp if it's Waugh), look out below...

NEXT UP: Opening Day!

08-15-2021, 06:32 PM	#431
Bub13 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: Maine Posts: 748	Spring report and 2055 season preview The best thing I can say about spring training is that it's over. We finished 13-17, winning six of our last eight after sending down the not ready for prime timers. We had trouble hitting and scoring, but got mostly solid pitching. (A portent for the coming season? Well, stay tuned.) No, the really worrisome part of the spring was a nasty outbreak of injury-itis. Eight players missed most or part of March, with some of them going on extended vacations, unfortunately. In order of seriousness, you have: #2 SP Mike Pearse -- out for 11 months. He also missed all of 2052 with the same injury (torn UCL) #4 SP Andy Burke -- out for 12-13 months. Burke and Carbajal (read on) stabilized a faltering rotation last season #3 SP Danny Carbajal -- out for 5-6 weeks. Yippee MR Orlando Silva -- out for 8 months. Was a dark horse candidate this spring, and threw well as a mid-season recall last year SS J.J. Simmons -- dtd for another week. Hit better than he has in two years this spring; should be 100% shortly DH Jules Medici -- missed 3/4 of March, but is back in time for opening day. Please don't be a sign of impending fragility MR G.J. Joe -- out for 3 months. Prospect was throwing really well this spring, but hopefully this won't hurt us or AAA Santa Barbara OF Josh Hed -- healthy again, but missed 1/2 of the spring While only our rotation is currently wracked with pain, I of course worry that this is a bad omen for the coming season. Luckily, our farm system is still pretty deep; and now those shiny new toys will get a shot to see what they got. Plus that's depth I can mine for trades later, should I go that route instead. So with no further ado, here is the 2055 Opening Day roster for Your Hawaii Islanders: C Mike Covington, 25, L; $4.5M thru 2055; .257/.315/.480, 20 HR, 1.4 WAR. A second consecutive slow start for Cov in '54, and while he picked up the pace late, he didn't match his overall numbers from '53. Solid receiver, just missed a Gold Glove imho. Will be pushed by the new guy, and we'll see how he responds in a contract year. C Jamie Collins, 24, L; minor league contract; .260/.363/.460, 16 HR, 1.7 WAR in AA and AAA. Beat out poor-hitting Bentley Kolb for the backup spot. Ranks as the #26 prospect in MLB. Like Cov, a LHB so no more platoon here, like we've had with Kolb, et al, in recent years. Scouts say he's still growing, with solid power but less contact than earlier projections. Average defensively. 1B Josh Matson, 31, S; $11.5M thru '57, then two TOs; .297/.356/.448, 12 HR, 0.4 WAR. Hit nearly 30 points below his career average, his power dropped in half, and WAR was hurt by a really poor defensive month spent at 2B. We need him to rebound and show that someone over the age of 30 on this team can still hit. (I'm looking at you, J.J.) DH Jules Medici, 24, R; $17.9M+ thru '60, then opt-out; .343/.437/.645, 47 HR, 5.9 WAR. The heart of the offense, we'll live and die at the plate with him. Fully earned his new long-term contract, which will keep him here thru '62 if he doesn't opt out. Hard worker, team leader, fan favorite. Too good to be true? 2B Lucas Tipping, 23, R; $500k (auto); .200/.276/.383, 5 HR in 115 AB (also .248, 10 HR in 222 AAA AB). The #34 prospect in MLB is getting his shot in the starting lineup after a solid spring. Doesn't do any one thing at a high level, but has no holes either. Still growing, and projects as a decent hitter with some power, maybe enough for 20 HR a season. Defense is above average, but not trophy-level. Like I said: no holes. The kind of guy who should go unnoticed most of the time because he's just doing his job. 3B Caleb Royer, 27, R; $4.25M thru '55 (arb); .298/.316/.530, 32 HR, 1.8 WAR. Offense was fine, but dropped from a really solid (.326/.352/.601) 2053 season. Good hitter across-the-board, except that he will not take a walk (35 in two full seasons). Will probably never be a plus fielder, but improved enough to not be at the bottom of the charts. Strong arm covers some of his fielding sins. As he's arbitration eligible in the fall, this is essentially a contract year for him. 3B/1B Lua Ulkini, 26, L; $1.1M thru '55 (arb); .283/.357/.425, 3 HR, 0.3 WAR, 113 AB. Two seasons in and he's become a solid utility bat, and might see some more time as a defensive sub for Royer against RHP. Depending on how much he might earn moving forward, he'll either get more playing time or a free agent this fall. Doesn't rate high enough to make regular starts, but has produced when called upon. IF Kevin Kelley, 24, R; $800k (arb); .228/.331/.286, 2 HR, -1.4 WAR. Played more (311 AB) due to injuries, and his hitting suffered but most surprisingly he was a disaster at short (-7.9 ZR, .926 EFF). Didn't hit well in camp but made the roster over prospect Bill Gamboa due to his ability on the left side of the infield. (Gamboa doesn't have the arm for SS or 3B.) A good role player and a plus in the clubhouse, he could be the first man out if we struggle early and need to change things up. SS J.J. Simmons, 32, R; $25M thru '56 (opt out, then thru '60); .234/.326/.278, 0 HR, -0.2 WAR. Once was a sparkplug in the offense, but has really struggled for two seasons now. He's boosted somewhat by his OBP, lack of strikeouts, speed, and fielding. Still, a .234 average and negative WAR was a major part in our offensive woes last year. I rolled the dice on his last long-term contract, and it's starting to look like that's coming up snake eyes. LF Josh Hed, 26, R; $500k (arb); .283/.336/.500, 18 HR, 1.4 WAR, 374 AB. Didn't so much seize the starting nod in left in camp, as rather it sort of devolved onto him. Missed nearly half the seaon in '54 but was productive for most of his healthy time. With a pile of youngsters lining up behind him, however, his role on the team will be completely contingent on how he starts the season. Perhaps the best fielding OF (after maybe Espino), but his so-so arm limits him to left. CF Joe Lynn, 26, R; $7.8M thru '56; .323/.383/.456, 6 HR, 14 triples, 68 SB, 4.5 WAR. Leadoff catalyst and has been remarkably consistent in his four years as a starter. Little power but is truly gifted everywhere else. Has a team option for next year--which we'll execute--but right now is asking for a long-term extension in excess of $20M per season. Even if Simmons opts out, saving us some cash, I'm not sure I want to turn right around and sign another guy until well into his thirties. Also, top prospect Brian Hassell is lurking... RF Doug Pederson, 26, L; $4M thru '55 (arb); .306/.434/.518, 10 HR, 2.0 WAR, 222 AB. Positives: can rake with the best of them, for power and average; no slouch on the basepaths; team sparkplug. Negatives: becoming oddly immobile in the field, even at 26, despite good running speed; wants an extension at over $20M per for eight years; hasn't yet stayed healthy through an entire season. If he can stay on the field and keep hitting this year, we'll arbitrate him in the fall and see what our $$$ situation looks like afterwards. OF Erik Bennetsen, 24, R; $500k (auto); .301/.326/.518, 4 HR, 83 AB (also .320 in 357 AA/AAA at bats). Didn't hit in the spring, ceding left field back to Hed. My scouts say he's better than Josh, however, and he'll definitely get some AB in April as I feel like the competition for LF is still open. Had hopes of seeing him make a mark as a two-way guy until be broke his elbow while pitching and missed all of '53. OF Nick Gase, 25, R; $500k (arb); .316/.454/.500, 7 HR, 2.4 WAR, 206 AB. Showed more power than expected, filling in capably after Hed went down last summer. Wants to start and will push the Hed/Bennetsen duo, as well as seeing some time at 1B and DH. If he could only hit for power with regularity he'd be a shoo-in. OF Diego Espino, 24, R; $500k (arb); .248/.320/.487, 11 HR, 0.1 WAR, 193 AB. Another of our young logjam of outfielders, he hasn't hit well enough to get more playing time yet. Being a gifted fielder and a team co-captain keeps him around for now, even if his batting hasn't developed as promised. One of those rare international FA signings that actually paid off. OUTLOOK: On paper, at least, we should get a ton of hits, but it remains to be seen if we'll be dynamic enough to plate a lot of runs. Sound familiar? Pederson's injury and down seasons from several guys kept our runs total much lower than expected in '54, and it wouldn't shock me to see more of the same, injuries notwithstanding. There isn't much change to the lineup, although rookies Tipping (2B) and Bennetsen (OF) will be expected to produce. Bennetsen in particular will get the first crack if Hed is slow out of the gate, although if Gase keeps producing he might force me to make a roster move. And I'm intrigued enough by Collins' bat to see if he can take any games away from Covington behind the plate. I'll feel a lot better if the usual suspects produce, and if Simmons and Matson can return to form. If not...there could be bigger changes next off-season. ...... SP Matt Waugh, 28, L; $35M+ thru '60 (then a PO); 21-5, 3.14, 224 IP, 256 K, 7.9 WAR. Two seasons, two Cy Young trophies. He was nearly unhittable early on, and for some of that stretch was the only SP pitching well at all. Regressed in mid-season but came on strong late and led us into the playoffs. Will become the second Islander pitcher to make three consecutive opening day starts, after the great Leon Casillas in '39-'41. He has to stay healthy and deliver for us, period. SP Mike Bader, 26, R; $8.75M thru '55 (arb); 7-13, 5.20, 177 IP, 116 K, 3.2 WAR. Bottomed out last year, but he wasn't alone. He must bounce back for us, especially as he'll really be playing for his contract. I'm not inclined to pay someone over $10M a season to be subpar. Pitched well in camp, so I'm cautiously optimistic he can regain the form he showed his first two seasons. SP Josh Irvin, 26, R; $2.1M thru '55 (arb); 2-9, 7.20, 90 IP, 53 K, 0.1 WAR. Yes, another upcoming arbitration case, and yes another pitcher who blew up last year. A finesse guy with excellent control, every stat trended way downward for him in '54. And to continue the running theme: yes, he must bounce back for us to succeed this year. I sent him down last year after 16 mostly terrible starts, and while he was okay in AAA, he didn't earn a recall. He was excellent in camp, but really just needs to be average or slightly better to keep me happy. SP Daniel Croft, 24, L; $500k (auto); 0-1, 0.41, 22 IP, 4 starts in AAA. Our erstwhile #1 pitching prospect missed nearly the entire season in '54, which cost him an MLB debut given how awful our pitching was early on. While he doesn't appear to have lost anything after his injury, he did slide down to our #4 pitching prospect, a curious thing. (And no, the three guys now above him didn't take big jumps.) Has a five-pitch repertoire and excellent stamina; groundballer; nothing else really stands out. Looked good in camp, but we'll see... SP Travis Harris, 23, R; minor league money; 9-10, 2.98, 182 IP, 138 K, 27 starts in AA/AAA. Another low-ball finesse guy, looks very similar to Irvin. It's a broken record, but he too had a very strong camp and fully earned his major league debut. Will try to get by without a true fastball (cutter/curve/change arsenal). Sits at #44 in MLB's prospect rankings. (Croft is #37, btw.) CL Nate Kearns, 29, R; $1.4M thru '55; 6-4, 2.72, 19 SV, 92 IP, 104 K, 1.9 WAR. Took home the Hoyt Wilhelm trophy after essentially 1/2 of a season as closer. He'll get a chance at it from the get-go this year. A flame-throwing sidearming groundballer, a lovely combo. Walks a bit more than I'd like (4 per 9 IP), but he usually makes up for it by striking out everyone else. SU Manny Reyes, 22, R; minor league cash; 13-8, 4.68, 28 starts in A ball. Making the big leap from A ball after a very strong camp. Like Kearns, a fireballing groundball guy with some control issues. Wants to start, but not with that sad changeup, Manny. Like Travis Harris, was a supplemental round pick in the '51 draft, where we took a ton of pitchers early. (Others were the injured Andy Burke, and minor leaguers Elias Tena, Larry Hensley, Nick Lee, and John Loeb.) SU Jordan Ruiz, 25, L; $850k (arb); 5-4, 2.03, 10 SV, 49 IP, 58 K, 1.4 WAR. Good enough to close, and a big piece of our solid bullpen. Struggled some in camp, but I expect him to round into form out of the gate. One of two lefties in the pen. MR M-H Yaung, 38, L, $1.2M thru '55; 10-0, 0 SV, 3.32, 79 IP, 77 K, 1.4 WAR. The World's Tallest Korean is back for another year, with me hoping he still has something left in the tank. Ks were way down last year, and BABIP way up, so... you tell me why you won't be surprised to see him buried in AAA by July. MR Yoshi Watanabe, 23, R, $800k (auto); 8 games in AAA last year after an elbow injury in camp. Breaking my rule against flyball pitchers since Turtle had the best camp of all our middle relief candidates. Power pitcher with a snappy fastball/slider combo, he's got a number of guys nipping at his heels should he start slow out of the gate. MR Sam Bohlen, 27, R, $1.29M thru '55; 3-4, 2 SV, 4.94, 71 IP, 81 K, 0.7 WAR. Came over in our silly mega-trade with the Cubs last year. Started slow but came on late, eventually earning a solid spot in a setup role. Pitched a lot in camp, got better as the month went on; stuck around largely because of his contract and my unwillingness to let him go for nothing. Sidearmer. OUTLOOK: Despite our injuries this is still a solid unit. If Bader and Irvin recover past form, we could have the best rotation in the game, although not one that will overpower hitters. The bullpen should be quality. Injured: SS J.J. Simmons (dtd, five days); SP Mike Pearse (11 months), Andy Burke (12 months), and Danny Carbajal (5-6 weeks); RP Orlando Silva (8 months) Waiting in the wings: C Bentley Kolb, 2B/SS Bill Gamboa, IF Jim Pfeifer, SS Jake Moore, OF Russ Venters and Chase Thompson. SP John Loeb, Gleb Mihalkovsky, and Ken Taylor; RP Brad Cahill, Jonathon Sitzler, Phil Bishop, and Anthony Booker. None were all that impressive in camp (even the ones who played a lot for us last season) but will be on the speed dial when injuries/incompetencies arise. Also watching AA OF Brian Hassell, seventh ranked prospect in baseball. ...... BNN has some pretty interesting predictions they unveiled today. The AL East figures to be wide open, with only a few games separating Boston, Tampa, Miami, and New York. Can't disagree. In the Central, Detroit leads with 91 games, but surprisingly they have the White Sox slipping dramatically from their 112-win 2054 to just 79 wins this year. (Why? Pitching: offense figures to be 2nd in the league, pitching 2nd-worst.) KC looks to figure in the wild card race. As for the West, Texas pulls away with 106 wins, but they show us as second in the AL with 96 wins, mostly on the backs of league-best pitching. I'm optimistic here... On the individual front, California 1B William Swanson returns to prominence (.322/56/150), while Texas SP Bobby Daniel wins 23 with a studly 3.23 ERA. Over in the NL, it's Washington in the East (from Philly), and St Louis in the Central (taking a tight race with Chicago and Cincinnati). But LA figures to be the cream of the NL crop again, winning 99 games and again running away with the West by a wide margin over Arizona. Philadelphia again figures to be the most interesting team in the league, scoring 867 runs (best in the NL), but allowing 857 (by far the worst in the NL, and nearly the worst in MLB). Tipped for outstanding seasons are Cincy 3B Heath Lewellen (.308/63/135), Brooklyn 2B Mauro Barbiusa (.291/60/133), and LA's ace Everett Cronk (19-9, 2.83, 241 K). For us? BNN says we'll score a lot but won't hit many home runs, and we'll have the AL's best pitching stats. I think that's pretty spot on, and very similar to last season as we didn't add any real power to our lineup, and we also didn't lose any major players. What will be telling, ultimately, comes down to three areas. 1) Power hitting. Medici figures to rake again; Pederson could, if he can stay healthy; Royer's power bat keeps him employed, so he needs to hit 30 again; and Matson, Hed, Covington, and rookie Tipping all need to--and can--add 15-20 dingers at a minimum. Home runs aren't everything but we need to be solid here to compete. 2) Starting pitching. Waugh was a beast last year, but veterans Skiff, Bader, and Irvin stunk right from the start. Solid #2 Mike Pearse is out for the year, as is sophomore Andy Burke, so our two rookies need to be solid, and we need comebacks from Bader and Irvin. 3) Health. Every team wants to stay healthy, of course. But we're already starting the year behind the curve a bit, with two SP and an RP out for the season. If we lose one or two power bats and another SP (esp if it's Waugh), look out below... NEXT UP: Opening Day! __________________ Introducing Your Hawaii Islanders!