[Bub13]

It's not an exaggeration to say that 2053 was a perfect season: 122 wins, great hitting, great pitching, all capped off by a hard-fought World Series title. Roll forward to this past season and...it's a different story: 89 wins, second in the division, okay-not-great hitting and pitching, and a fall at the Divisional Round playoff hurdle. Not a bad season per se, but quite a comedown. So what happened and why? What will we do moving forward to get back to top of the heap, to strike back at those cursed Rangers? Read on.


Team Stats Overview
If you're a regular here you know how crabby I got--especially mid-season--about some iffy hitting. On the plus side, we finished 4th in average and 3rd in OBP. But that didn't translate into runs, where we finished a distant 8th in the AL. Probably the biggest reason for that was our 16th-place finish in home runs, and an associated 14th-place standing in extra base hits. We still put a lot of runners on base, take a lot of walks, and rarely strike out. But we weren't consistently dynamic enough to drive runners home.

To that, I'd add two more reasons why we struggled. First, financial issues cost us the key off-season departures of 2B Bob Goodloe, LF Cam Daley, and RF Josh Frederick. In '53 those guys produced 74 doubles and 53 HR, even with Freds missing 2/3 of the season. (And for their new teams, they knocked 70 HR and earned nearly 10 WAR, fyi.) Their replacements were inconsistent: OF Josh Hed and Doug Pederson hit well, but missed lots of time with injuries; and no one did anything at 2B. Second, some players regressed from solid years in '53. Most notably 1B Josh Matson, who went from .352/.388/.585 with 51 doubles, 26 HR, and 4.3 WAR, to .297/.356/.448 with 31 doubles, 12 HR, and just 0.8 WAR. Also: Mike Covington rebounded to finish at .257 with 20 HR, but was batting below .230 for much of the year; SS J.J. Simmons was often hurt and batted only .234. So injuries and some transitions at numerous positions cost us lineup stability and meant we often didn't have more than one or two guys at any one time hitting at the high level we've come to expect.

On the mound... Our final team numbers looked pretty good: 4th in runs against, 5th best rotation ERA, AL-best bullpen ERA, 4th-ranked FIP. But the rotation numbers were greatly aided by Matt Waugh's dominant season, especially early on when the third-year trio of Henry Skiffington, Mike Bader, and Josh Irvin was getting shelled nearly every time out. The bullpen was generally more solid, but Kyle Johnson ended up bombing out of his return to the closer position and earned a trade to Tampa Bay by mid-season. Otherwise, I'll have questions about the staff in the coming months, but there are still a lot of solid pieces here.

......

Individual Position Overview

Catcher: Covington's offense dropped a bit, even if his power numbers stayed the same. His defense improved, and he batted well enough against LHP to no longer be constantly platooned. His salary arb estimate is $3.9M, up from league minimum, so next season will tell regarding his future. Backup Bentley Kolb hit .265 and got on base at a .361 clip, but doesn't hit for power and played some pretty poor defense (7 errors in 47 starts). Michael Snavely got a couple brief call-ups, but didn't impress.
2055 Outlook: Covington turns 25 next spring, so should be coming into his own. He'll need to, to earn that big pay raise. Backup Kolb will get a strong challenge from prospect Jamie Collins, who could even threaten Covington soon. Collins has a very nice-looking power bat, but is not nearly the defensive catcher Covington is.

First Base/DH: Yes, Josh Matson won't hit .350 every year, but every offensive stat went down significantly, and his month at 2B proved that moving him to 1B was better for everyone. We need him to return to his .300+/25+ HR seasons. At DH, Jules Medici was the team MVP, and could slot in at first if Matson doesn't rebound. No one is pushing up from the farm.
2055 Outlook: Mastson and Medici return as starters, and we'll need both of them to lead the offense.

Second Base: Six guys made ten or more starts here, and no one impressed. Zach Watt started the season, but didn't hit much and didn't field well either. Utility guy Kevin Kelley took over, but was more of the same. Erik Griffin got a brief stint and did hit .282 with solid defense, so may get another look in the spring. Matson and Jim Pfeifer didn't add anything either. Lucas Tipping got most of the September starts and looks like the future here; he hit only .200 but showed some power and solid defense.
2055 Outlook: I would like Tipping to show up in camp and solidify this position. He's got some pop in his bat, and should be more than solid in the field. Griffin has also earned a look, but doesn't bring much offense at all. If Tipping isn't ready, I'm not sure I'll want to go another entire season with this hole in the lineup.

Third Base: Caleb Royer had a decent sophomore season, knocking 32 HR and hitting .298. His defense isn't great, but he wasn't league-bottom like he was in '53. Backup Lua Ulkini is the better fielder, and a decent hitter, but has solid value as a utility backup in the IF and OF. Like Covington, Royer's salary will go way up ($3.5M up from minimum) so he'll have to keep hitting to earn his paycheck. MLB #1 prospect Jose Villalpando is still several years away.
2055 Outlook: More of the same please. Royer's deficiences will cost him one day, but I hope that day is far off. Super prospect Villalpando is still 3-4 years away.

Shortstop: J.J. Simmons played solid defense in his 73 starts but didn't hit for the second year running. Kevin Kelley didn't field well, and also hit like a utility infielder. Simmons hit just .234, but did get on base at a .326 clip, so he's still got something going, at least. At 32, I hope he's got something left in the tank.
2055 Outlook: We'll be all set if Simmons can return to his pre-'53 form, hitting near or above .300 and getting on base near .400. The backup plan here could be #2 prospect Jake Moore, who hit .319 in 30 games at AAA, and looks about ready for prime time. He looks like a Simmons clone, minus the footspeed. I like his promise, but he may still be a year away.

Outfield: We went into last season minus our two corner outfielders from '53, but found solid replacements...for a time, at least. LF Josh Hed made only 92 appearances, but hit .283 with 18 HR. He also played excellent defense, showing more range than Cam Daley ever had. In CF, Joe Lynn was his usual dependable self, batting .323/.383/.456 and stealing 68 bases. He and Hed are both Gold Glove candidates. In RF, Doug Pederson got off to a strong start, batting .306/10/38 in the first two months, but then missed the rest of the season. He also missed a month in '53, so may be showing serious signs of fragility already. Despite a lack of range, he's otherwise solid. Injuries allowed several youngsters--Diego Espino, Russ Venters, Nick Gase, and Erik Bennetsen--to get significant playing time, and each showed positive signs. All four are solid prospects, and Bennetsen, called up in September, could be best of all of them.
2055 Outlook: When healthy, this is a solid outfield. And those prospects will make for some interesting competition in the spring. Also getting a look will be Brian Hassell, MLB's #8 prospect, although he's at least a year away. He's a five-tool guy who's got all-star potential.

Starting Pitching: No pun intended, but man did we have a rough start to the season here. Waugh was excellent and kept us afloat, although he slipped a lot mid-summer. Mike Pearse was solid all season, and is the only other power arm currently in the rotation. Mike Bader missed six starts and also saw his BABIP rise by 50 points. Otherwise his stats didn't change, so I'm hopeful he'll recover his effectiveness. But Skiffington and Irvin flat out blew up and earned tickets back to AAA, where they didn't exactly star either. Luckily, replacements Danny Carbajal and Andy Burke proved capable and helped salvage the season. Skiff, Irvin, and Bader are due for arbitration raises so need to bring their games back to stay on the roster.
2055 Outlook: Waugh and Pearse are locks, the other spots are up in the air. Adding to the five others listed above is pitching prospect Daniel Croft, who would have been the first call-up if he hadn't torn up his elbow after 4 AAA starts. (Although it's concerning that he's gone from our #2 prospect overall to our #5 SP prospect, without those other four guys taking big jumps up.) Outside shots in the spring include Ken Taylor, Gleb Mihalkovsky, Travis Harris, and John Loeb.

Relief Pitching: Solid team stats for this unit, but no truly outstanding performances. Works for me. Nate Kearns took over as closer after Kyle Johnson played his way out of town, and will get first crack at that role next year. Jordan Ruiz also pitched well between closing and setup roles. Other regulars included MH Yaung--the only LH option--Sam Bohlen, Orlando Silva, and Anthony Booker. Phil Bishop came up in September and pitched 12 solid innings, so will get a long look in camp.
2055 Outlook: Everyone will come back, even though I thought I might pass on 37-year-old Yaung, but he was too good to just let go. Top prospects who have a chance too include Manny Reyes, Brad Cahill, Yoshi Watanabe, GJ Joe, and Elias Tena. We usually go after a UFA here in the off-season, but with these many options I doubt I'll spend any money here. Although we are short on lefties...

......

Okay, great. But sum this up please.

Injuries and declining performances led to a 33-game drop in wins from 2053. But we still made the playoffs and can still field talent at every position. Solid prospects at last year's trouble spots--2B, SS, and SP--have me hopeful that we can recover and compete with Texas--or anyone else--for the division. I mean, at least one of last year's terrible SP has to rebound, right? And one of Tipping or Moore should prove ready for the bigs and solve our middle infield issues. And six good outfielders is a good place to live, tbh. But if we're looking for an easy bump in team home runs, I'm not sure that's in the cards.

Prospects + probable funding issues = no big free agents for me.* I've got some big culling to do across the farm system, and there will be the usual sorting of coaching staff to deal with. I expect a quiet off-season for the team. Which means something big will end up happening...


(* - remember this when I start saying "It's only 15 million for a #2 starting pitcher. Cheap! Let's do it!")