|
I think Matt's comment above is very important to understand. Like a good projection system, the system is cautious not to move the ratings too fast. These guys are not "proven" yet and that uncertainty is baked into the algorithms. Baseball requires a large sample size to see through the noise, due to the randomness, so that's where the hesitancy (rightly, imo) comes from. It's the same reason Bellinger is still a perfect having a bad year...he's got a very high baseline track record to fall back on compared to a very small sample this year.
With each month that goes by, with a guy like Vlad hitting very well, the system is going to believe it more & more. Hence his rapid climb up the ladder this season from silver to diamond. But, he just didn't keep up his pace this time around. His slash line for the June 28-July 25 period was 100 points lower than his previous production across all three stats. To me that seems like a very understandable reason to pump the brakes. His production this period was fitting for a low diamond card with no glove.
|