Part of the problem with this thread is it's going too many directions - but unfortunately, all of the issues are related to each other.
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We don't work with Stats... in fact we only work with Talent & Ratings in OOTP - that's what I want fixed.
It's kind of ironic how Stats/Performance are the most important notion of this game, and yet it is completely discounted by us in evaluating how a player will develop in the future. That is a seriously unrealistic aspect of the game.
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Here is one of the major issues. There are just as many on this board that think stats should be included as those that don't. Markus made the change in the first place because of a groundswell of those that felt stats should play a part in the Top 100 list. I think it's now becoming clear that might be ok - IF - they are also a part of the development cycle. Given both options, and consideringthe amount of work it would take to recode the development algorythm, I would think it better to remove stats fromt he propect calculation until some future version.
draven,
Try and picture a bell curve representing the development curve of a player based on age - reaching his peak at 27-33. The random ups and downs based on how close their ratings are to the next level (as Markus mentioned) are decided by that curve. There are some exceptions, of course, but the design of this variance is controlled by that bell curve. Add to that again, the effect of coaches, etc.
In the end - you still have a bell curve (most of the time) but it's ups and downs are simply variances of the "theme". The bell curve is "god" in the sense all the randomness must start there to effect it... thus it's not a totally random roller coaster.