[lnpgaceta]

Originally Posted by joefromchicago

Well, that's a mystery. You should have encountered a HR surge in 1884 and a decline in 1885, not a significant increase in 1885. Thinking off the top of my head, that could be the result of:

• Player creation/development modifiers: maybe players created in 1883-84 (I'm assuming you're using fictional players) got big power numbers and kept them in 1885. I think that's unlikely, because that's not how the game works, but it's something to consider;
• Strategy settings: if you're using the historical settings, you should be seeing more bunts and hit-and-runs than HRs;
• Pitcher usage: you mention that the game makes some strange pitching moves. That's not surprising: the AI is inclined to use pitchers like it's 2021, even if it's the 1880s in your game. If you're seeing the game use a bunch of relievers in every game, that's non-historical. It might lead to more late-game HRs against crummy relievers;
• Warmer weather: hey, anything's possible;
• Statistical blip: these things happen. Your league might just be on the extreme end of the bell curve.

That's all I can think of. Without a deep dive into your game, I'm just guessing here. I'd be interested if anyone else has encountered something like this.

I would too! Sorry I took a while on this.


Anyway, I think it's a combination of all of the above factors.

• Player creation/development modifiers: The first wave of players that had both the raw power and eye tools, and the time and coaching to develop them properly, seem to have hit the LNP in the late 1870s. There were a few XBH sluggers before then, but they typically lived by legging out doubles and triples. Given that I've had a really hard time finding power-focused hitting coaches, I think that might have something to do with it.
• Strategy settings: I actually don't mess with batting strategies at all when I GM a team; I might lock a pitcher to a 100 count or ask my manager to give the bullpen more reps, but I like to let them make the baserunning/hitting decisions. (I think I've lowered a couple bunting sliders when the manager really likes them, but that's about it.)
• Pitcher usage: No argument here—a couple pitchers got off the IL at the end of the season with no rehab assignment, and a lot of teams that were either locked into or locked out of the playoffs like to try out pitching prospects in late August, when the games officially no longer matter. I suspect this is part of it, but I'd need a deeper dive into which teams did it.
• Warmer weather: I maintain this is a factor, partly because of the team I usually call games for (link in signature, pardon the shameless plug)—the Ingenieros have a bunch of one-dimensional power hitters and got 13 HR out of it in the three months before I moved over to 22; they had 14 HR in the remaining month, including two 2-HR games. Now, I don't think that the weather change would do it by itself—but combine it with the above factors, and I think some of these HRs used to be hard-hit balls that died on the warning track, since OOTP thinks it's possible to hit a ball 116.2 MPH in 1885.
• Statistical blip: Also entirely possible, which is why I'll have to revisit this in the next season. Liga Hostos, in particular, has actually had more home runs before, so it might turn out to be nothing.

I don't really mind either way, since it makes games a little more exciting when a mistake pitch can get properly punished, but we'll know more in a few weeks when the 1886 season wraps up.