OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - The Dead Zone: The Philadelphia Phillies (1984-

The_Myth · 05-18-2021, 12:46 AM

June 26, 1986

Time to promote some minor leaguers. But first, let’s look at how the rookie leaguers are doing. First in Utica:

SS - Edgar Naveda (19, 1986, 8th round) - 152 PA, .302/.401/.535, 15 XBH, 18 BB, 7 K, 6 SB, 2.3 WAR
3B - Carlos Baerga (17, 1986, 1st round) - 151 PA, .302/.404/.444, 13 XBH, 21 BB, 21 K, 7 SB, 0.7 WAR
2B - Cesar Bernhardt (17, 1986, 17th round) - 143 PA, .308/.357/.454, 12 XBH, 9 BB, 15 K, 11 SB, 0.9 WAR

Each member of the infield trio is ready to move to A Spartanburg, though these are some young studs.

SP - Walt Williams (21, 1986, 26th round) - 53.2 IP, 2.68 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 49 K, 28 BB, 0.8 WAR
SP - Paul McClellan (20, 1986, 12th round) - 47.1 IP, 4.37 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 42 K, 21 BB, 0.8 WAR
SP - Paul Abbott (18, 1985, 21st round) - 45.2 IP, 2.96 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 48 K, 28 BB, 1.2 WAR
SP - Mike Carista (19, 1985, 17th round) - 42.1 IP, 4.25 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 37 K, 15 BB

You can also make a case for each of these guys. But let’s start at the top and see if anyone is ready for a jump from AA to AAA:

CF/RF/LF Luis Polonia promoted to AAA Portland
RF/CF Bernie Anderson promoted to AA Reading
CF/LF Scott Hufford promoted to A Clearwater
CF Randy Salava released
RP Jerry Arnold released
RP David Bulls released
RP Damon Dombek released
RP Daniel Roma released

Polonia was more than ready, and his pipeline in the outfield could also push upward. I got rid of a bunch of no-name relievers (as well as some veterans taking up space in extended spring training) and cleaned things out a bit. Jeff King is pushing on a spot in AA Reading, but I need to figure out what to do with Ricky Jordan first. He’s having a poor season there.

June 27, 1986

Well, we’re all in St. Louis. Gregg Jefferies’ family is also at Busch Stadium, flying in from California. He bats eighth tonight in the first of a three-game set. Lefty is on the mound.

Game 1986-71: Busch Stadium - Cardinals 2, Phillies 0 / 37-34

The new guy doesn’t change anything yet. Just putrid offensive performance, as we squander big opportunities early and not get close late. Once again, Von Hayes comes up short, as do Schmidty and Glenn Wilson. We need these guys. Our hitting coach is supposed to be a power guru - where is he?

June 28, 1986

We have a trade: Minnesota sends RF Duane Walker to Montreal for C Tony Pena. Walker has been a nice bench bat this season, while Pena is nothing more than a suitable backup. Bench for bench here.

Meanwhile, the White Sox propose a trade: SP Tom Seaver for 1B Enos Cabell and SS Gregg Jefferies. Geez, this is the worst time of year. I need a drink.

We need a rebound tonight from Charles Hudson. I need more to drink. Maybe some cocaine.

Game 1986-72: Busch Stadium - Cardinals 2, Phillies 1 / 37-35

Cards win in the ninth. Our offense once again stinks, wasting a great Charles Hudson start. Just atrocious. Things might need to change before long.

June 29, 1986

We’re now 16 behind New York and just about done. The all-star voting update is the same as before. I’m pissed.

Here’s the deal: It’s nearly July and this is what I’m getting from Von Hayes:

279 PA, .200/.288/.343, 19 XBH, 31 BB, 34 K, 12 SB, 1.1

He was worth 7.1 WAR last season, but I wasn’t expecting that. I was expecting more like 4-5 WAR, and right now he’s trending toward maybe 2 WAR. Along with that my power continues to be dead, so I wonder if my strategy of speed all day is actually hurting me. Maybe.

At this point I’m thinking we’ll be clear sellers at the deadline, but again, not radically so. We’ll look to deal one of our starting pitchers (likely John Denny) and a bench bat and reliever (Enos Cabell likely, Larry Andersen maybe). I want to give our young guys a chance to play a lot down the stretch, but I still obviously want to keep my vets in there as well. Anyway, this is looking like a lost campaign. What hurts is I just want more Von Hayes and a little more Schmidty. This regression just sucks.

Time to probably get owned by Joaquin Andujar again.

Game 1986-73: Busch Stadium - Phillies 10, Cardinals 4 / 38-35

Once again, we outscore our opponent in the series (11-8) but lose the thing 2-1. Gregg Jefferies collects his first major league hit, a double, then hits another later to score a run. He also steals two bags. Welcome to the show, kid.

Elsewhere, Von Hayes - in the five-hole - and Rickey Henderson both homer.

On Saturday (yesterday), the game between the Mets and Cubs got hairy. In the fourth, as the Mets were piling onto the Cubs, Chicago pitcher Len Damian hit Kevin Mitchell with a pitch. Then, Mitchell charged the mound. On a 1-2 count with the game still in hand, it doesn’t seem as if Damian was trying to hit Mitchell, but oh well. Today, both players got eight-game suspensions.

New power rankings:

1. New York Mets - 54-20
2. Toronto Blue Jays - 49-27
3. Boston Red Sox - 50-25
4. Seattle Mariners - 45-32
5. Los Angeles Dodgers - 46-29

We’re 12th. Yuck.

June 30, 1986

A trade: Kansas City sends RP Willie Hernandez (former Phillie) to Minnesota for prospects Tom Schwarz and Walter Stull. Hernandez has a 3.14 ERA in 14.1 innings this season.

On the homefront, I get a call from Enos Cabell’s agent, who says his client would like more playing time. Well, maybe he’ll get a little more with the team performing poorly, but I hope he doesn’t expect a starting spot. Anyway, we’re open to dealing him.

Game 1986-74: Three Rivers Stadium - Pirates 3, Phillies 1 / 38-36

Same old crap. Can’t score until the ninth, and even with second and third with one out … nothing. It’s comical. We can barely hit balls out of the infield. Gregg Jefferies goes 2-for-4 with a double.

Tough news out of Clearwater: RP Woodrow Broussard is out for about a year, needing elbow reconstruction surgery. He’s 24, and the clock is really ticking for him.

July 1, 1986

Now that we’re in July, the trade discourse will begin to get a bit louder. But first, let’s get through this damn series.

Game 1986-75: Three Rivers Stadium - Pirates 6, Phillies 5 (10) / 38-37

And when we actually score, we can’t win. Nothing more to say.

July 2, 1986

Game 1986-76: Three Rivers Stadium - POSTPONED

Well, I guess that’s fine.

Also, the Mets got Mike Easler from the Royals.

July 3, 1986

We went 13-16 in June, which actually isn’t that bad, when you think about it. It just seems a lot worse. I just wish we hit better.

Now, onto strategy, as it’s July. We’re probably out of it, now behind the Mets by 16 games, and we’ll want to sell a bit. Let’s look through the roster to get a sense of the group:

C - Darren Daulton - 246 PA, .207/.339/.333, 12 XBH, 40 BB, 46 K, 8 SB, 1.1 WAR
1B - Mike Schmidt - 303 PA, .273/.327/.418, 21 XBH, 24 BB, 43 K, 1.2 WAR
2B - Juan Samuel - 314 PA, .257/.299/.397, 27 XBH, 15 K, 72 K, 18 SB, 0.7 WAR
3B - Paul Molitor - 325 PA, .324/.366/.430, 20 XBH, 24 BB, 33 K, 25 SB, 2.7 WAR
SS - Steve Jeltz - 134 PA, .264/.336/.339, 7 XBH, 13 BB, 20 K, 0.3 WAR
LF - Von Hayes - 293 PA, .202/.288/.349, 20 XBH, 32 BB, 36 K, 12 SB, 1.3 WAR
CF - Rickey Henderson - 338 PA, .303/.392/.490, 31 XBH, 43 BB, 37 K, 53 SB, 4.1 WAR
RF - Glenn Wilson - 225 PA, .327/.366/.498, 21 XBH, 13 BB, 27 K, 1.9 WAR

For all the talk about Hayes regressing and Schmidt getting older, I barely talk about Daulton and Samuel, who are both in their third seasons and haven’t yet solidified themselves as real offensive threats. Here’s Daulton’s career so far:

1984 - 201 PA, .200/.303/.354, 6 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 26 BB, 47 K, 1.2 WAR
1985 - 511 PA, .222/.354/.390, 13 2B, 6 3B, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 86 BB, 98 K, 17 SB, 3.6 WAR
1986 - 246 PA, .207/.339/.333, 4 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 40 BB, 46 K, 8 SB, 1.1 WAR.

He’s 14th among all catchers in WAR. He doesn’t have to be incredible offensively, but we’d like to see more contact and a power boost. He’s not very far off from ‘85, which admittedly was a good season for him. I’m not sour on him, and I’m certainly not thinking about replacements in ‘87, but not having a better bat here is hurting us a little.

Then there’s Samuel, who has less of an excuse. Here’s his career so far:

1984 - 691 PA, .303/.350/.498, 36 2B, 18 3B, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 43 BB, 142 K, 65 SB, 5.4 WAR
1985 - 668 PA, .248/.283/.410, 29 2B, 14 3B, 15 HR, 86 RBI, 26 BB, 107 K, 64 SB, 2.2 WAR
1986 - 314 PA, .257/.299/.397, 19 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 15 BB, 72 K, 18 SB, 0.7 WAR

He had that phenomenal rookie season, then slumped terribly in ‘85, though he kept up his stolen base numbers, struck out less, and improved his defense. We considered that progress. This year his defense is even better (-1.5 ZR, .984 EFF), but his offense is nosediving. Part of the problem might be that he’s hitting far down in the order. And … maybe part of the problem is Rickey Henderson.

So here’s a thought: Getting Henderson was an exercise in too much of a good thing. What we probably needed going into 1986 was power; instead, we doubled down on speed and tilted the scales so far that we had to interrupt other players’ natural progressions. Hayes took a major hit this year, and Samuel is feeling it, too. I wonder if I messed around too much with their heads.

We’ll stay with Sammy through this year, and his arbitration years begin next year, so we have to just be judicious. (Ryne Sandberg happens to be a free agent next year, but I have to think the Cubs will want to extend, and if not, we can spend in better ways down the road … seriously). But I think we have to talk about putting him back in the two behind Rickey, moving Von to the five or six (or seven) and sticking with it.

Now, as for 1987, we seem to be locked in offensively (just with Jefferies likely at shortstop instead of Jeltz). The pitching staff is another story. John Denny is a Type-A free agent, and here’s his Phillies career, starting in 1983:

1983 - 242.2 IP, 19-6, 2.37 ERA, 139 K, 53 BB, 7.1 WAR (NL Cy Young)
1984 - 190 IP, 9-9, 3.27 ERA, 105 K, 41 BB, 4.5 WAR
1985 - 234.2 IP, 15-9, 2.68 ERA, 145 K, 68 BB, 6.8 WAR
1986 - 92.1 IP, 4-6, 4.29 ERA, 69 K, 31 BB, 2.5 WAR

On one hand it’s a relatively clear regression, but on the other hand you’d expect the ERA not to jump into the 4 range yet. That said, he has a 3.15 FIP, which is right in line with regular regression. Anyway, we can expect a better second half. Do we want to re-sign him? He’ll only continue to regress negatively. So do we want to risk holding onto him through October and hoping a team signs him, giving us a first-round pick? It could happen. It might happen. But trends these days show once a player gets into his age-33 season, the odds a team signs him as a free agent dwindle. And when he’s a free agent, Denny would be 34. Denny could fetch a decent prospect or two on the market. We’ll want either pitching or outfield power, I imagine. We’ll listen.

Then there’s Scott Sanderson, also a Type-A free agent. His run since 1984:

1984 - 59.2 IP, 2-6, 4.22 ERA, 38 K, 13 BB, 1.6 WAR
1985 - 220.2 IP, 16-10, 3.18 ERA, 142 K, 47 BB, 5.0 WAR
1986 - 105.1 IP, 7-4, 2.99 ERA, 61 K, 25 BB, 2.1 WAR

He might have more value than Denny right now. But he’s more likely to snag a free agent contract in the offseason. Sanderson was a coup for us - great value who is having his finest seasons as a Phillie. But we have a decision to make with him.

I imagine we’ll deal one of these guys, or at least try to. Blaise Ilsley can step in. Mike Maddux and Kelly Downs (seriously) deserve more chances. If we’re out this much now, why not let the kids step in and make their cases for 1987?

There’s one more free-agent-to-be we need to address: Steve Carlton. Since 1984:

1984 - 197.1 IP, 8-9, 3.38 ERA, 142 K, 63 BB, 5.7 WAR
1985 - 197.1 IP, 11-8, 2.92 ERA, 122 K, 68 BB, 4.5 WAR
1986 - 72.1 IP, 2-6, 3.98 ERA, 58 K, 32 BB, 1.3 WAR

Bill Giles wants him back in 1987. He can still pitch, but how much will he be able to pitch? I imagine if necessary I could move him to the bullpen as a specialty lefty, a la Tug McGraw in 1985. Heck, Tugger wasn’t good but we hid him well enough, and it paid off. Chances are decent we bring Lefty back and let him go on an award tour. Just looking for the right spot.

OK. Soon we’ll talk targets. Now we’re home against 47-29 Cincinnati for four. Lefty on the mound. Gregg Jefferies is playing his first home game. We need to play well. A new lineup, too, after my chat with Dick Howser:

CF - Rickey Henderson
2B - Juan Samuel
3B - Paul Molitor
1B - Mike Schmidt
LF - Von Hayes
RF - Glenn Wilson
C - Darren Daulton
SS - Gregg Jefferies

Game 1986-76: Veterans Stadium - Phillies 9, Reds 4 / 39-37

One of those offensive breakouts we’ve been missing. Rickey gets on three times via the walk and steals a base. Samuel with three hits and two steals. Schmidty strikes three hits, including two doubles, and drives in four. Carlton guts through 7.1 innings with five strikeouts. And the runs overcome another good game from MVP candidate Eric Davis, who hits his 22nd home run. The kid is special.

July 4, 1986

Happy Independence Day, and we continue the long weekend series with Cincinnati. But first, bad news, as Portland 1B Francisco Melendez goes on the shelf with an oblique strain. The 22-year-old is hitting .296/.353/.354 in his second season in AAA. He’s been the model of consistency in the minors, good for something around .295/.350/.400, though this season his power has been zapped a bit. He’s a dark horse to make my roster in 1987.

Also, Yankees GM Sean Healy calls me with a trade proposal: SP Steve Trout for Enos Cabell and Gregg Jefferies. We’re going to get these proposals now, are we?

Game 1986-77: Veterans Stadium - Phillies 4, Reds 2 / 40-37

A good, good win. Tie game until the seventh, when Rickey Henderson hits an RBI single, and Juan Samuel follows it up with a fielder’s choice grounder to score another. Not a lot of hits, but they matter.Charles Hudson strikes out eight in eight innings, a solid bounceback, while Todd Worrell earns his second save with a decent ninth.

Meanwhile, a Fourth of July no-no in Toronto. 21-year-old rookie Greg Swindell of California baffles the hard-hitting Blue Jays. It’s the season’s fourth no-hitter.

July 5, 1986

Third game against the Reds, and we get a terrific Tom Browning (12-4, 2.28 ERA). For us, it’s our terrific Kevin Gross (8-2, 2.35 ERA).

Game 1986-78: Veterans Stadium - Phillies 7, Reds 6 / 41-37

Gregg Jefferies! The rookie hits his first major league home run in a huge spot, untying the game in the eighth with what would be the winning run. Rickey Henderson also knocks a homer, his 12th. Good to be on a roll. Not the most effective start for Gross (6 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 4 K, 3 BB), and Larry Andersen naturally blows the lead, but Todd Worrell and Jay Howell pick it up on the back end. Oh, also hitting a home run tonight for the Reds: Bo Diaz. The former Phillie is hitting .320/.384/.446 in 251 PA for the Reds. What a world.

Meantime, a fight in Arlington! Dave Stieb hits Barry Bonds with a pitch, and the 21-year-old (who’s having a weird second season with a .238/.303/.463 line and 16 HR) goes after him. Bonds gets four games off, while Stieb gets eight.

July 6, 1986

First, all-star update: Same as it ever was, with Mike Schmidt (1st, 1B), Paul Molitor (3rd, 3B), Rickey Henderson (3rd, CF), Charles Hudson (5th, SP), and Larry Andersen (5th, RP) in the mix. But wait! Also Kevin Gross (4th, SP)!

Next, a trade. The Cardinals send prospect Kris Roth to Kansas City for SP Dennis Martinez and prospect LaVel Freeman. St. Louis is taking on a risk in Martinez, as he’s been mediocre but could be depth for a team in contention (eight back of New York).

It’s midseason report time.

Owner Bill Giles calls me into his office. It’s the same story as usual: he’s happy, but not really happy. He wants a better manager, saying “I want someone who’s at least got a Good reputation.” HOWSER HAS A GREAT REPUTATION. IT SAYS GREAT.

He also wants the Carlton extension; again, that isn’t hard to do, it’s more a matter of if I want to. Also, he’s not happy that my draft picks haven’t yet performed in the majors. I literally just brought two of them in over the last month, and they’ve given us 0.4 WAR. BE PATIENT, BILL.

Anyway, all good.

Final game of four and would love a sweep. John Denny goes against Mario Soto. And I’m taking a gamble with Paul Molitor getting a seat; Steve Jeltz plays third in his place (and will hit third).

Game 1986-79: Veterans Stadium - Phillies 7, Reds 4 / 42-37

A big sweep, and our best baseball of the season is happening right now. Glenn Wilson hits two home runs to up his total to eight, while Juan Samuel and Rickey Henderson both add dingers. Gregg Jefferies and Tommy Thompson hit doubles. John Denny throws a perfectly fine eight, giving up two earned while striking out five.

Bad news in Utica: SP Walt Williams is out with a forearm injury that’ll cost him three months. In Milwaukee, RP Dan Plesac is out for the year with a torn rotator cuff.

The power rankings:

1. Boston Red Sox - 56-26
2. New York Mets - 56-25
3. Detroit Tigers - 46-36
4. Los Angeles Dodgers - 50-32
5. Seattle Mariners - 48-35

We’re 10th, now 13 behind the Mets, who are up eight on St. Louis. In the NL West, the Dodgers now have a two-game lead over the Reds (who we swept). In the AL East, the Red Sox are up 7.5 on Toronto and 10 on Detroit. And in the AL West, those Mariners are looking for yet another division crown, as they’re up four on California.

05-18-2021, 12:46 AM	#222
The_Myth Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2019 Location: World Posts: 172	June 26, 1986 Time to promote some minor leaguers. But first, let’s look at how the rookie leaguers are doing. First in Utica: SS - Edgar Naveda (19, 1986, 8th round) - 152 PA, .302/.401/.535, 15 XBH, 18 BB, 7 K, 6 SB, 2.3 WAR 3B - Carlos Baerga (17, 1986, 1st round) - 151 PA, .302/.404/.444, 13 XBH, 21 BB, 21 K, 7 SB, 0.7 WAR 2B - Cesar Bernhardt (17, 1986, 17th round) - 143 PA, .308/.357/.454, 12 XBH, 9 BB, 15 K, 11 SB, 0.9 WAR Each member of the infield trio is ready to move to A Spartanburg, though these are some young studs. SP - Walt Williams (21, 1986, 26th round) - 53.2 IP, 2.68 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 49 K, 28 BB, 0.8 WAR SP - Paul McClellan (20, 1986, 12th round) - 47.1 IP, 4.37 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 42 K, 21 BB, 0.8 WAR SP - Paul Abbott (18, 1985, 21st round) - 45.2 IP, 2.96 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 48 K, 28 BB, 1.2 WAR SP - Mike Carista (19, 1985, 17th round) - 42.1 IP, 4.25 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 37 K, 15 BB You can also make a case for each of these guys. But let’s start at the top and see if anyone is ready for a jump from AA to AAA: CF/RF/LF Luis Polonia promoted to AAA Portland RF/CF Bernie Anderson promoted to AA Reading CF/LF Scott Hufford promoted to A Clearwater CF Randy Salava released RP Jerry Arnold released RP David Bulls released RP Damon Dombek released RP Daniel Roma released Polonia was more than ready, and his pipeline in the outfield could also push upward. I got rid of a bunch of no-name relievers (as well as some veterans taking up space in extended spring training) and cleaned things out a bit. Jeff King is pushing on a spot in AA Reading, but I need to figure out what to do with Ricky Jordan first. He’s having a poor season there. June 27, 1986 Well, we’re all in St. Louis. Gregg Jefferies’ family is also at Busch Stadium, flying in from California. He bats eighth tonight in the first of a three-game set. Lefty is on the mound. Game 1986-71: Busch Stadium - Cardinals 2, Phillies 0 / 37-34 The new guy doesn’t change anything yet. Just putrid offensive performance, as we squander big opportunities early and not get close late. Once again, Von Hayes comes up short, as do Schmidty and Glenn Wilson. We need these guys. Our hitting coach is supposed to be a power guru - where is he? June 28, 1986 We have a trade: Minnesota sends RF Duane Walker to Montreal for C Tony Pena. Walker has been a nice bench bat this season, while Pena is nothing more than a suitable backup. Bench for bench here. Meanwhile, the White Sox propose a trade: SP Tom Seaver for 1B Enos Cabell and SS Gregg Jefferies. Geez, this is the worst time of year. I need a drink. We need a rebound tonight from Charles Hudson. I need more to drink. Maybe some cocaine. Game 1986-72: Busch Stadium - Cardinals 2, Phillies 1 / 37-35 Cards win in the ninth. Our offense once again stinks, wasting a great Charles Hudson start. Just atrocious. Things might need to change before long. June 29, 1986 We’re now 16 behind New York and just about done. The all-star voting update is the same as before. I’m pissed. Here’s the deal: It’s nearly July and this is what I’m getting from Von Hayes: 279 PA, .200/.288/.343, 19 XBH, 31 BB, 34 K, 12 SB, 1.1 He was worth 7.1 WAR last season, but I wasn’t expecting that. I was expecting more like 4-5 WAR, and right now he’s trending toward maybe 2 WAR. Along with that my power continues to be dead, so I wonder if my strategy of speed all day is actually hurting me. Maybe. At this point I’m thinking we’ll be clear sellers at the deadline, but again, not radically so. We’ll look to deal one of our starting pitchers (likely John Denny) and a bench bat and reliever (Enos Cabell likely, Larry Andersen maybe). I want to give our young guys a chance to play a lot down the stretch, but I still obviously want to keep my vets in there as well. Anyway, this is looking like a lost campaign. What hurts is I just want more Von Hayes and a little more Schmidty. This regression just sucks. Time to probably get owned by Joaquin Andujar again. Game 1986-73: Busch Stadium - Phillies 10, Cardinals 4 / 38-35 Once again, we outscore our opponent in the series (11-8) but lose the thing 2-1. Gregg Jefferies collects his first major league hit, a double, then hits another later to score a run. He also steals two bags. Welcome to the show, kid. Elsewhere, Von Hayes - in the five-hole - and Rickey Henderson both homer. On Saturday (yesterday), the game between the Mets and Cubs got hairy. In the fourth, as the Mets were piling onto the Cubs, Chicago pitcher Len Damian hit Kevin Mitchell with a pitch. Then, Mitchell charged the mound. On a 1-2 count with the game still in hand, it doesn’t seem as if Damian was trying to hit Mitchell, but oh well. Today, both players got eight-game suspensions. New power rankings: 1. New York Mets - 54-20 2. Toronto Blue Jays - 49-27 3. Boston Red Sox - 50-25 4. Seattle Mariners - 45-32 5. Los Angeles Dodgers - 46-29 We’re 12th. Yuck. June 30, 1986 A trade: Kansas City sends RP Willie Hernandez (former Phillie) to Minnesota for prospects Tom Schwarz and Walter Stull. Hernandez has a 3.14 ERA in 14.1 innings this season. On the homefront, I get a call from Enos Cabell’s agent, who says his client would like more playing time. Well, maybe he’ll get a little more with the team performing poorly, but I hope he doesn’t expect a starting spot. Anyway, we’re open to dealing him. Game 1986-74: Three Rivers Stadium - Pirates 3, Phillies 1 / 38-36 Same old crap. Can’t score until the ninth, and even with second and third with one out … nothing. It’s comical. We can barely hit balls out of the infield. Gregg Jefferies goes 2-for-4 with a double. Tough news out of Clearwater: RP Woodrow Broussard is out for about a year, needing elbow reconstruction surgery. He’s 24, and the clock is really ticking for him. July 1, 1986 Now that we’re in July, the trade discourse will begin to get a bit louder. But first, let’s get through this damn series. Game 1986-75: Three Rivers Stadium - Pirates 6, Phillies 5 (10) / 38-37 And when we actually score, we can’t win. Nothing more to say. July 2, 1986 Game 1986-76: Three Rivers Stadium - POSTPONED Well, I guess that’s fine. Also, the Mets got Mike Easler from the Royals. July 3, 1986 We went 13-16 in June, which actually isn’t that bad, when you think about it. It just seems a lot worse. I just wish we hit better. Now, onto strategy, as it’s July. We’re probably out of it, now behind the Mets by 16 games, and we’ll want to sell a bit. Let’s look through the roster to get a sense of the group: C - Darren Daulton - 246 PA, .207/.339/.333, 12 XBH, 40 BB, 46 K, 8 SB, 1.1 WAR 1B - Mike Schmidt - 303 PA, .273/.327/.418, 21 XBH, 24 BB, 43 K, 1.2 WAR 2B - Juan Samuel - 314 PA, .257/.299/.397, 27 XBH, 15 K, 72 K, 18 SB, 0.7 WAR 3B - Paul Molitor - 325 PA, .324/.366/.430, 20 XBH, 24 BB, 33 K, 25 SB, 2.7 WAR SS - Steve Jeltz - 134 PA, .264/.336/.339, 7 XBH, 13 BB, 20 K, 0.3 WAR LF - Von Hayes - 293 PA, .202/.288/.349, 20 XBH, 32 BB, 36 K, 12 SB, 1.3 WAR CF - Rickey Henderson - 338 PA, .303/.392/.490, 31 XBH, 43 BB, 37 K, 53 SB, 4.1 WAR RF - Glenn Wilson - 225 PA, .327/.366/.498, 21 XBH, 13 BB, 27 K, 1.9 WAR For all the talk about Hayes regressing and Schmidt getting older, I barely talk about Daulton and Samuel, who are both in their third seasons and haven’t yet solidified themselves as real offensive threats. Here’s Daulton’s career so far: 1984 - 201 PA, .200/.303/.354, 6 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 26 BB, 47 K, 1.2 WAR 1985 - 511 PA, .222/.354/.390, 13 2B, 6 3B, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 86 BB, 98 K, 17 SB, 3.6 WAR 1986 - 246 PA, .207/.339/.333, 4 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 40 BB, 46 K, 8 SB, 1.1 WAR. He’s 14th among all catchers in WAR. He doesn’t have to be incredible offensively, but we’d like to see more contact and a power boost. He’s not very far off from ‘85, which admittedly was a good season for him. I’m not sour on him, and I’m certainly not thinking about replacements in ‘87, but not having a better bat here is hurting us a little. Then there’s Samuel, who has less of an excuse. Here’s his career so far: 1984 - 691 PA, .303/.350/.498, 36 2B, 18 3B, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 43 BB, 142 K, 65 SB, 5.4 WAR 1985 - 668 PA, .248/.283/.410, 29 2B, 14 3B, 15 HR, 86 RBI, 26 BB, 107 K, 64 SB, 2.2 WAR 1986 - 314 PA, .257/.299/.397, 19 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 15 BB, 72 K, 18 SB, 0.7 WAR He had that phenomenal rookie season, then slumped terribly in ‘85, though he kept up his stolen base numbers, struck out less, and improved his defense. We considered that progress. This year his defense is even better (-1.5 ZR, .984 EFF), but his offense is nosediving. Part of the problem might be that he’s hitting far down in the order. And … maybe part of the problem is Rickey Henderson. So here’s a thought: Getting Henderson was an exercise in too much of a good thing. What we probably needed going into 1986 was power; instead, we doubled down on speed and tilted the scales so far that we had to interrupt other players’ natural progressions. Hayes took a major hit this year, and Samuel is feeling it, too. I wonder if I messed around too much with their heads. We’ll stay with Sammy through this year, and his arbitration years begin next year, so we have to just be judicious. (Ryne Sandberg happens to be a free agent next year, but I have to think the Cubs will want to extend, and if not, we can spend in better ways down the road … seriously). But I think we have to talk about putting him back in the two behind Rickey, moving Von to the five or six (or seven) and sticking with it. Now, as for 1987, we seem to be locked in offensively (just with Jefferies likely at shortstop instead of Jeltz). The pitching staff is another story. John Denny is a Type-A free agent, and here’s his Phillies career, starting in 1983: 1983 - 242.2 IP, 19-6, 2.37 ERA, 139 K, 53 BB, 7.1 WAR (NL Cy Young) 1984 - 190 IP, 9-9, 3.27 ERA, 105 K, 41 BB, 4.5 WAR 1985 - 234.2 IP, 15-9, 2.68 ERA, 145 K, 68 BB, 6.8 WAR 1986 - 92.1 IP, 4-6, 4.29 ERA, 69 K, 31 BB, 2.5 WAR On one hand it’s a relatively clear regression, but on the other hand you’d expect the ERA not to jump into the 4 range yet. That said, he has a 3.15 FIP, which is right in line with regular regression. Anyway, we can expect a better second half. Do we want to re-sign him? He’ll only continue to regress negatively. So do we want to risk holding onto him through October and hoping a team signs him, giving us a first-round pick? It could happen. It might happen. But trends these days show once a player gets into his age-33 season, the odds a team signs him as a free agent dwindle. And when he’s a free agent, Denny would be 34. Denny could fetch a decent prospect or two on the market. We’ll want either pitching or outfield power, I imagine. We’ll listen. Then there’s Scott Sanderson, also a Type-A free agent. His run since 1984: 1984 - 59.2 IP, 2-6, 4.22 ERA, 38 K, 13 BB, 1.6 WAR 1985 - 220.2 IP, 16-10, 3.18 ERA, 142 K, 47 BB, 5.0 WAR 1986 - 105.1 IP, 7-4, 2.99 ERA, 61 K, 25 BB, 2.1 WAR He might have more value than Denny right now. But he’s more likely to snag a free agent contract in the offseason. Sanderson was a coup for us - great value who is having his finest seasons as a Phillie. But we have a decision to make with him. I imagine we’ll deal one of these guys, or at least try to. Blaise Ilsley can step in. Mike Maddux and Kelly Downs (seriously) deserve more chances. If we’re out this much now, why not let the kids step in and make their cases for 1987? There’s one more free-agent-to-be we need to address: Steve Carlton. Since 1984: 1984 - 197.1 IP, 8-9, 3.38 ERA, 142 K, 63 BB, 5.7 WAR 1985 - 197.1 IP, 11-8, 2.92 ERA, 122 K, 68 BB, 4.5 WAR 1986 - 72.1 IP, 2-6, 3.98 ERA, 58 K, 32 BB, 1.3 WAR Bill Giles wants him back in 1987. He can still pitch, but how much will he be able to pitch? I imagine if necessary I could move him to the bullpen as a specialty lefty, a la Tug McGraw in 1985. Heck, Tugger wasn’t good but we hid him well enough, and it paid off. Chances are decent we bring Lefty back and let him go on an award tour. Just looking for the right spot. OK. Soon we’ll talk targets. Now we’re home against 47-29 Cincinnati for four. Lefty on the mound. Gregg Jefferies is playing his first home game. We need to play well. A new lineup, too, after my chat with Dick Howser: CF - Rickey Henderson 2B - Juan Samuel 3B - Paul Molitor 1B - Mike Schmidt LF - Von Hayes RF - Glenn Wilson C - Darren Daulton SS - Gregg Jefferies Game 1986-76: Veterans Stadium - Phillies 9, Reds 4 / 39-37 One of those offensive breakouts we’ve been missing. Rickey gets on three times via the walk and steals a base. Samuel with three hits and two steals. Schmidty strikes three hits, including two doubles, and drives in four. Carlton guts through 7.1 innings with five strikeouts. And the runs overcome another good game from MVP candidate Eric Davis, who hits his 22nd home run. The kid is special. July 4, 1986 Happy Independence Day, and we continue the long weekend series with Cincinnati. But first, bad news, as Portland 1B Francisco Melendez goes on the shelf with an oblique strain. The 22-year-old is hitting .296/.353/.354 in his second season in AAA. He’s been the model of consistency in the minors, good for something around .295/.350/.400, though this season his power has been zapped a bit. He’s a dark horse to make my roster in 1987. Also, Yankees GM Sean Healy calls me with a trade proposal: SP Steve Trout for Enos Cabell and Gregg Jefferies. We’re going to get these proposals now, are we? Game 1986-77: Veterans Stadium - Phillies 4, Reds 2 / 40-37 A good, good win. Tie game until the seventh, when Rickey Henderson hits an RBI single, and Juan Samuel follows it up with a fielder’s choice grounder to score another. Not a lot of hits, but they matter.Charles Hudson strikes out eight in eight innings, a solid bounceback, while Todd Worrell earns his second save with a decent ninth. Meanwhile, a Fourth of July no-no in Toronto. 21-year-old rookie Greg Swindell of California baffles the hard-hitting Blue Jays. It’s the season’s fourth no-hitter. July 5, 1986 Third game against the Reds, and we get a terrific Tom Browning (12-4, 2.28 ERA). For us, it’s our terrific Kevin Gross (8-2, 2.35 ERA). Game 1986-78: Veterans Stadium - Phillies 7, Reds 6 / 41-37 Gregg Jefferies! The rookie hits his first major league home run in a huge spot, untying the game in the eighth with what would be the winning run. Rickey Henderson also knocks a homer, his 12th. Good to be on a roll. Not the most effective start for Gross (6 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 4 K, 3 BB), and Larry Andersen naturally blows the lead, but Todd Worrell and Jay Howell pick it up on the back end. Oh, also hitting a home run tonight for the Reds: Bo Diaz. The former Phillie is hitting .320/.384/.446 in 251 PA for the Reds. What a world. Meantime, a fight in Arlington! Dave Stieb hits Barry Bonds with a pitch, and the 21-year-old (who’s having a weird second season with a .238/.303/.463 line and 16 HR) goes after him. Bonds gets four games off, while Stieb gets eight. July 6, 1986 First, all-star update: Same as it ever was, with Mike Schmidt (1st, 1B), Paul Molitor (3rd, 3B), Rickey Henderson (3rd, CF), Charles Hudson (5th, SP), and Larry Andersen (5th, RP) in the mix. But wait! Also Kevin Gross (4th, SP)! Next, a trade. The Cardinals send prospect Kris Roth to Kansas City for SP Dennis Martinez and prospect LaVel Freeman. St. Louis is taking on a risk in Martinez, as he’s been mediocre but could be depth for a team in contention (eight back of New York). It’s midseason report time. Owner Bill Giles calls me into his office. It’s the same story as usual: he’s happy, but not really happy. He wants a better manager, saying “I want someone who’s at least got a Good reputation.” HOWSER HAS A GREAT REPUTATION. IT SAYS GREAT. He also wants the Carlton extension; again, that isn’t hard to do, it’s more a matter of if I want to. Also, he’s not happy that my draft picks haven’t yet performed in the majors. I literally just brought two of them in over the last month, and they’ve given us 0.4 WAR. BE PATIENT, BILL. Anyway, all good. Final game of four and would love a sweep. John Denny goes against Mario Soto. And I’m taking a gamble with Paul Molitor getting a seat; Steve Jeltz plays third in his place (and will hit third). Game 1986-79: Veterans Stadium - Phillies 7, Reds 4 / 42-37 A big sweep, and our best baseball of the season is happening right now. Glenn Wilson hits two home runs to up his total to eight, while Juan Samuel and Rickey Henderson both add dingers. Gregg Jefferies and Tommy Thompson hit doubles. John Denny throws a perfectly fine eight, giving up two earned while striking out five. Bad news in Utica: SP Walt Williams is out with a forearm injury that’ll cost him three months. In Milwaukee, RP Dan Plesac is out for the year with a torn rotator cuff. The power rankings: 1. Boston Red Sox - 56-26 2. New York Mets - 56-25 3. Detroit Tigers - 46-36 4. Los Angeles Dodgers - 50-32 5. Seattle Mariners - 48-35 We’re 10th, now 13 behind the Mets, who are up eight on St. Louis. In the NL West, the Dodgers now have a two-game lead over the Reds (who we swept). In the AL East, the Red Sox are up 7.5 on Toronto and 10 on Detroit. And in the AL West, those Mariners are looking for yet another division crown, as they’re up four on California. Last edited by The_Myth; 05-21-2021 at 12:21 PM.