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Originally Posted by Drivehud.com
He's given up 6 solo shots, so ok... I've assumed movement is related to HR rate.
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That's correct. And the number of runners on base is irrelevant, just the rate of homers allowed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drivehud.com
And it doesn't matter that he's second in the league in K's and has only given up 6 walks. The number of homeruns is the problem.
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Surely those strikeouts & walk rates do matter, they help him from dropping even lower. But he is only beating his projections in those stats by a modest amount. For homers, he is giving up 1.7 per nine while only projected for 1.1, which is a significant increase.
The cards starting ratings are automated from ZiPS projections so looking at those, USUALLY things make sense. Not all the time but most.