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i have a spreadsheet buried in the boards somewhere that can help with keeping track of results and sets of LTMs. has to have 2 sub leagues or requires some editting. If the csv output files have changed... also another hiccup, lol.
1 year isn't enough to be reliable long-term for sure.. with a 30-team league. Larger the league, the more reliable 1 year's results become.. or reverse with a smaller league.
need a good 50-100 years to get the averages of various stats. Some come quicker than others. If i recall, stolen bases is a good example of one that takes forever to find a steady long-term average. A whacky start to any league can make it take longer to find an average with confidence in any 1 statistic.
These are dials that augment or shrink various outcomes. I always preferred they stayed constant, but to do that you need to run multiple long-term sims to derive a set that will work relative to current league settings
funky things happen too.. these aren't solid 'curves'. Some, like balks, have very little resolution. i guess that could have changed last couple years. But, if you change that Balks LTM value drastically, it potentially does nothing if you don't cross a threshold. Yes there are 1,000 points below 1, but only a few large ranges of values that cause a change.
Anyway, quicker, less precise way would be to simply autocalculate to start and make minor adjustments over time if you see yearly totals dip too low in various categories.
Just understand these dials are shifting around bits of the same total pie. if you add 2000 hits, relative to previous years you will also get proportional additions to 2b, 3b, and hr, also fewer ~2000 'other' outcomes in proportion from previous years all other factors remaining the same... If you add a bunch of walks, that'll reduce total number of hits per PA, so you get fewer hits 2b, 3b and hr, even if same slash. Anyway, it's fluid.. like squeezing one of those stress balls.. some equal amount pops out somewhere else.
Add to doubles without changing total number of hits, then you end up with fewer of the other types of hits than you did in previous seasons (on average). slugging affected but avg and obp is not.
The more often you adjust one at a time, the better off you will be at getting what you want. The ones that have very little to do with each other being an exclusion.
don't react to any mid season results. you'll just chase your own tail on that one, unless you run a very, very large league. Remember, 1 year is bad info to work on, so half a year is horrendously bad info to make a decision solely based upon.
You can find a constant set that will work well, and allow the natural random creation of players dictate year to year volatility in stats, which imho is how it should work.. not dials. -- This excludes intended 'evolution' or anything that is akin to that... maybe you just want a big change in statstical output, it doesn't matter why or how it is role-played.
Last edited by NoOne; 04-17-2021 at 11:34 PM.
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