Prospect Revision:
SP Casey Mize
v:93-95 (down from 96-98)
FB: 55/60 (110/150 down from 65/70, 120/163)
CT: 55/55 (110/130 from 55/60, 90/130)
SL: 60/60 (130/140 up from 55/60, 90/130)
SPL: 60/70 (170/220 up from 60/65,120/163)
SN: 50/55 (80/130,
added)
CB: 40/65 (50/150,
added)
con: 55/60 (121/125/141 down from 60/65, 141/145/149)
Mize's stock is still high with a load of quality pitches and his two newest ones - a sinker and a curve or "
slurve" - have been added. They were his hardest hit pitches in 2020, though his
sinker did show an impressive amount of movement despite the poor command, hence I gave it the same ceiling as his
cutter. The
curveball had a poor showing too, but Fangraphs thinks it has the potential to "emerge as the finishing weapon" above the good but won't be great
slider he's had. The curve starts with a very low floor to reflect its newness and poor 2020 showing, but has the slight potential to leapfrog the slider and become an excellent plus pitch. Finally, the elephant in the room: the
splitter. It was his worst pitch in 2020, despite it receiving unanimous 70 grades and even 80 grades from scouts previously. I went with the more bullish crowd that still expects it to be a great pitch and gave it a ceiling above
Kevin Gausman's splitter and raised its floor to 170, which puts it at high 60 current value, but still lower than Fangraphs' ranking of it as a 70/70 right now. This gives it some room to develop and should encourage the player to consider a AAA stint to maximize his development rather than rushing him up to the Majors and potentially compromising his long-term development.
Depending on his showing this year, that 93-95 velo can very easily drop to 92-94 or lower --- we will edit as we go here.
Note: This new Casey Mize shows him as an 80 grade potential --- which is certainly possible if he can stay healthy. His work ethic and intelligence are just average though so don't expect him to max out these ratings every playthrough. He only has one likely plus plus pitch and only one other pitch starts out as plush (slider) so his high stuff potential is still a ways away --- he will likely be somewhere between a Cueto and a Darvish type pitcher who relies on a large variety of above average pitches to excel, which gives him both a sky high ceiling at the highest variations, but most likely a more modest #2 type development with fringy high leverage relief potential. Also, the injury rating already seems to be set well for his injury concerns (good job OOTP!
) so users beware: Mize could be a future Cy Young, he could underdevelop and be mid rotation piece or he could flame out due to injuries --- all very realistic possibilities for him IRL
