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John Marsh · 10-26-2003, 10:39 PM

I know I have a degree in English, but can my math really be this bad?

Assume a team is averaging 25,000 fans per game. Here (I think) is the cost/benefit of promotional days. (I've left out Retro Game Days since they only happen once a year and those old-timey uniforms are really worth it.) Assume ticket prices to be $10 and Expected Attendance to be 25,000.

Caps:

Cost: $100,000
Increase Attendance: 20%
After Promotion Attendance: 30,000
Attendance Increase: 5,000.
Increased Revenue: $50,000.
Net Loss: $50,000

Bobble Heads:

Cost: $250,000
IA: 45%
APA: 36,250
AT: 11,250
IR:112,5000
Net Loss: $112,500

Bats:

Cost: $125,000
IA: 25%
APA: 31,250
AT: 6,250
IR: $62,500
Net Loss: $62,500

Gloves:

Cost: $150,000
IA: 30%
APA: 32,500
AI: 7,500
IR: $75,000
Net Loss: $75,000

If a team "took advantage" of all four promotion days for every month of the season, they would lose $1,800,000! In other words, in order for promotional days to be profitable, you have to already be drawing more than 50,000 fans per game. And since few stadiums seat much more than 50,000 people, I doubt promotional days would even be profitable then.

Now, to be sure, on some of those promotional days, the home team may win and, sometimes but not always, your fan interest will click upwards a point. I do not know the relation between fan interest and attendance, but let's assume that you take advantage of all twenty four promotional day opportunities and win half of those games. Your fan interest should (at best) increase by twelve. Over the course of the year, each click upwards in fan interest would have to increase attendance enough to offset the outlay in promotional money. You are losing $1,800,000 over the course of the year. To get it back, you would need to draw 180,000 more fans. Each one of the 12 clicks upwards, then, would have to produce an additional 15,000 fans over the course of the year. Another way to put it is that each click upward in fan interest would have to inspire approximately 185 people (15,000/81) per home game to show up when they otherwise would not have.

Their reason for doing so? They "heard" (presumably from the additional people who attended) that the team won the same day--the same day, can you believe it!?!--that the team decided to give everyone baseballs or dress up in old timey uniforms. I've got to see the team who can pull that off!

Promotional Days may (as economists like to say) in the long run be profitable as a result of their effect on fan interest, but even if they are ultimately profitable the logic seems kind of ridiculous.

Moreover, as General Manager, I resent having to schedule promotional days. Isn't that why general mangers have assistants? Don't I have better things to worry about? And why is the decision between whether to give away baseballs or baseball caps the only decision the computer deems serious enough to ask you if you really mean it? Where was the computer when I decided to take a chance on that closer in the first round of the amateur draft only to get burned a week later when his talent dropped faster than a team's attendance following a promotional day.

Now that I've flamed, someone please tell me I just forget to carry a one or mixed up thousands for ten thousands.

10-26-2003, 10:39 PM	#1
John Marsh Bat Boy Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 19	The Economics of Promotional Days I know I have a degree in English, but can my math really be this bad? Assume a team is averaging 25,000 fans per game. Here (I think) is the cost/benefit of promotional days. (I've left out Retro Game Days since they only happen once a year and those old-timey uniforms are really worth it.) Assume ticket prices to be $10 and Expected Attendance to be 25,000. Caps: Cost: $100,000 Increase Attendance: 20% After Promotion Attendance: 30,000 Attendance Increase: 5,000. Increased Revenue: $50,000. Net Loss: $50,000 Bobble Heads: Cost: $250,000 IA: 45% APA: 36,250 AT: 11,250 IR:112,5000 Net Loss: $112,500 Bats: Cost: $125,000 IA: 25% APA: 31,250 AT: 6,250 IR: $62,500 Net Loss: $62,500 Gloves: Cost: $150,000 IA: 30% APA: 32,500 AI: 7,500 IR: $75,000 Net Loss: $75,000 If a team "took advantage" of all four promotion days for every month of the season, they would lose $1,800,000! In other words, in order for promotional days to be profitable, you have to already be drawing more than 50,000 fans per game. And since few stadiums seat much more than 50,000 people, I doubt promotional days would even be profitable then. Now, to be sure, on some of those promotional days, the home team may win and, sometimes but not always, your fan interest will click upwards a point. I do not know the relation between fan interest and attendance, but let's assume that you take advantage of all twenty four promotional day opportunities and win half of those games. Your fan interest should (at best) increase by twelve. Over the course of the year, each click upwards in fan interest would have to increase attendance enough to offset the outlay in promotional money. You are losing $1,800,000 over the course of the year. To get it back, you would need to draw 180,000 more fans. Each one of the 12 clicks upwards, then, would have to produce an additional 15,000 fans over the course of the year. Another way to put it is that each click upward in fan interest would have to inspire approximately 185 people (15,000/81) per home game to show up when they otherwise would not have. Their reason for doing so? They "heard" (presumably from the additional people who attended) that the team won the same day--the same day, can you believe it!?!--that the team decided to give everyone baseballs or dress up in old timey uniforms. I've got to see the team who can pull that off! Promotional Days may (as economists like to say) in the long run be profitable as a result of their effect on fan interest, but even if they are ultimately profitable the logic seems kind of ridiculous. Moreover, as General Manager, I resent having to schedule promotional days. Isn't that why general mangers have assistants? Don't I have better things to worry about? And why is the decision between whether to give away baseballs or baseball caps the only decision the computer deems serious enough to ask you if you really mean it? Where was the computer when I decided to take a chance on that closer in the first round of the amateur draft only to get burned a week later when his talent dropped faster than a team's attendance following a promotional day. Now that I've flamed, someone please tell me I just forget to carry a one or mixed up thousands for ten thousands.