[Bub13]

JULY 2053

The month starts with the All-Star Prospects Game. We put six players on the roster: pitchers Daniel Croft and Brad Cahill, catcher Bill Wetter, SS Bill Gamboa, and outfielders Nick Gase and Josh Hed. The only guy here that surprises me is Wetter, a 23rd round pick from 2051. He's a solid defensive guy who's hitting ceilings--so I'm told--have jumped to where he's a legit prospect for a platoon or bench role in MLB one day. Color me surprised. Everyone else has been on my radar for a while, and look favorable to make the big club soon. As for the game itself: the AL kids beat the NL, 6-1. Hed and Gase got hits, and Cahill gave up a run in his only inning.

For the big boys game, we'll be sending three players: Matt Waugh will be the starting pitcher, while closer Robbie Collier and 1B Josh Matson were also named to the roster. The game was played in Oakland, and the AL also won this one, 7-4. Waugh tossed a scoreless first, and Collier gave up a solo HR in his single frame. Matson had a sac bunt (people still bunt?) in his only plate appearance.

Now, back to regular play... Over the month, we'll play 27 games, 15 at home and 12 on the road. We'll finish the month with nine straight at home. Oh, and some good news: Liles' injury was just a minor dtd thing, and he won't miss a start.

......

July 2-4 @ MILWAUKEE
At 31-50, last in the Central, and vying for a top five draft pick next year. Nothing is going well: 17th in hitting, 18th (worst) pitching. Much of the lineup is filled with over-the-hill or aging veterans, acquired via trade or free agency, few of whom are producing. 1B Jim Timmer--31 and new to the team--is hitting .261/23/50, the most consistent on the team. Newly acquired Mitch Elmore has gone from SS (in SF) to LF (now), and was leading the NL in batting at .362 before the recent trade. He might help some, but doesn't help on defense and only brings a quality average to the plate. Only CF Emilio Valdez and SS John Collins are home-grown, and neither moves the needle. On the mound, losing ace Danny Salgado hurts a bad staff, and his replacement--23 year-old Omar Cobian--has combined for 3 innings and a 39.00 ERA in his two big league starts. Someone needs to come in here and gut the roster, starting over; even the prospect pool ranks 32nd, so they need help there too.

HAW pitchers: RH Mike Bader (7-3, 4.17) / RH Josh Irvin (5-3, 4.79) / LH Matt Waugh (10-2, 2.05)
MIL pitchers: RH John Landers (6-3, 5.74) / RH Brian Moise (0-1, 6.55) / RH Jose Arteaga (debut)

#82: WIN 10-6 ... 7 HR tonight, 4 from us: 2 by Royer, with 5 RBI...we're outhit 11-8 too...all 6 runs charged to Bader, only 3 are earned tho
#83: WIN 9-6 ... Goodloe homers for the 2nd straight game, and we combine to hit 4 out again...Irvin is so-so, but we bail him out
#84: WIN 10-3 ... Matson goes 4-for-4, Pederson 3-for-5 with 4 RBI...Waugh goes 7 solid innings for the win

A solid and necessary sweep, as Texas swept the Twins.... With no days off between the all-star game and the start of this series, Waugh had his scheduled start pushed back two days after getting to pitch in the Summer Classic.... Nothing big here, but we make a minor trade with STL, mostly to free up some space on the 40-man roster. AAA IF Mike Janikowski and OF Jim Jackson head out, and we get SS Jim Pfeifer in return. Pfeifer, 22, could figure as a utility guy one day, and he doesn't need to be on the 40-man too.... After that, we add RP Orlando Silva to that roster, and bring him up for his first taste of MLB. We send Kyle Johnson down to Santa Barbara to get his mojo back.... ELSEWHERE: Oakland, falling to last in the West, sends six-year veteran SP Conrad Robertson to Cleveland for two minor league prospect OF.... Houston's won six straight, but are still 17 games out of first, and well back in any wildcard consideration.... Montreal has won 3 in a row, now just a game behind Milwaukee in the most exciting race in baseball right now.


July 5-7 @ CALIFORNIA
If the teams weren't so far out, the race among the last four teams in the division is tight, only divided by three games. The Angels are 41-43, currently in fourth. Pitching (6th) has outpaced hitting (13th). Mauricio Marquez is still going great, .336/19/59, and Mike Eskridge .315. The rotation has been decent, 3rd in ERA, and led by #1 guy Nate Elder. The pen, however, has been pretty bad, with their closer and two setup guys combining for ERA over 7. The franchise is closing in on twenty seasons without a post-season appearance, or a winning record.

HAW pitchers: RH Biff Skiff (8-4, 3.91) / RH Chris Liles (6-3, 6.07) / RH Mike Bader (8-3, 4.17)
CAL pitchers: RH Jay Sanford (4-7, 3.39) / RH Jason Shetler (1-0, 3.24) / RH Nate Elder (8-5, 3.79)

#85: WIN 8-6 ... crazy game: 5 HR for us, 3 for them...Skiff struggles through 5.1 IP, giving up all 3 HR, but more strong work from the bullpen
#86: WIN 4-1 ... Goodloe homers for the 4th time in 5 games...6.2 IP for Liles, pitching well, despite walking 4
#87: WIN 6-5 ... Simmons finally contributes, a 2-run double in the 8th to win it...Bader has a rough outing, but Silva wins his debut

Another sweep, and a very strong start to July. We're 8 games up on Texas now.... More rough outings from the rotation, but our hitting and solid bullpen work keep bailing them out.... Cam Daley wants to talk contract extension again: he's lowered his demand to $20M per for six seasons, plus three more following an opt out. Ehhhh, probably not.... ELSEWHERE: Philly is in first in the NL East, but they're working to shore up their league-worst bullpen. First, they acquired Dan Neumann (remember him from last year?) from Baltimore, and now they've added Lorenzo Quinones from Cincy. Both are veterans who have had solid seasons, and have immediately moved to the top of the pen. Neumann actually won his first two appearances with the Phils.... Eight straight losses for Milwaukee, six for Cleveland. Also in the Central, Detroit and Chicago are tied for first and have opened up a 16 game lead over Minnesota.


July 8-10 vs TORONTO
Our tour through the bottom half of various AL divisions continues with the tied-for-last Blue Jays, at 37-50. The offense ranks 12th, pitching 11th, with a -27 run differential. They're trying to better themselves, as only four regulars were here before last season. They've also made two recent trades, getting 2B Cortez Ortiz from MIN and DH Miguel Tejeda from OAK. Both are decent, but not cornerstone players. The rotation has been at least decent, despite having three SP on the DL. Like the Angels, this is a once-strong franchise that hasn't been relevant for some time, with no post-seasons since 2040. Unlike California, they have some better prospects, with the top six--all starting pitchers--all looking like potential big leaguers.

HAW pitchers: RH Josh Irvin (6-3, 4.99) / LH Matt Waugh (11-2, 2.08) / RH Biff Skiff (8-4, 4.12)
TOR pitchers: RH Jaden Buchanan (6-9, 4.86) / LH Chris Rivera (6-6, 3.94) / RH Josh Gordon (1-3, 6.10)

#88: WIN 3-1 ... Medici and Pederson homer, and Irvin yields just 4 hits over 8 innings
#89: WIN 4-0 ... Medici homers again, and Matson and Simmons add RBI doubles...Waugh goes 8.2, fanning 9, and Germann closes it
#90: LOSS 3-4 ... Collier gives up a 2-run triple in the 9th to end our winning streak...Frederick goes deep, pushing to get back into the lineup

Awwww, there goes the streak. Time to start another one.... Nine game lead over Texas now.... Pitching is still 1st in runs against, and now both the rotation and bullpen are first in ERA.... Once I sent Johnson down to AAA, we started getting tons of trade offers for him. Apparently, a closer-level RP is only worth mediocre catching prospects.... ELSEWHERE: Eleven losses in a row for Milwaukee now.... The Race for the Best Offense: Philly has scored 590 runs, the White Sox 586. For comparison, we're 2nd in the AL and have scored 554 runs.... William Swanson has gone crazy this month, and leads MLB with 44 home runs and 97 RBI. In 90 games.... Yet his 4.7 WAR isn't even top-five in the AL, and is way behind Philly's George Livezey, leading everyone at 5.8.


July 11-13 vs OAKLAND
It's been a rough stretch for the A's of late, 2-7 this month and ten games under .500 over the last two months. And they've fallen to last place, three games behind Seattle and California. Although they're still 2nd in HR, the offense has sagged a bit, to 7th in runs scored. Some minor housecleaning has started, as they sent RF Danny Venegas (.319/10/28) to the Yankees for two marginal prospects and a magical 4th round pick. (And then replacement RF Aaron Blocker broke his wrist and is out for the month.) Despite this down year, all of their top players return for next season, and they've got $30M to spend as of this writing. Get a couple pitchers and some help for lower in the lineup, and you're looking at a contender again in a snap. EDIT: first day of the series, they also traded #2 SP Chris Ronan for 2B Andy Lee, a good-field-can-sorta-hit guy.

HAW pitchers: RH Chris Liles (7-3, 5.77) / RH Mike Bader (8-3, 4.33) / RH Josh Irvin (7-3, 4.64)
OAK pitchers: LH Chris Larimer (10-5. 3.91) / RH Eric Stockton (3-3, 4.33) / RH Robby Ford (2-6, 4.99)

#91: LOSS 3-5 ... Liles yields 11 H over 7 IP including 2 2-run HR...five of our six hits are doubles
#92: WIN 3-1 ... tonight it's all singles (7 hits) but we add 5 walks too...8 IP from Bader, gives up just 5 hits
#93: WIN 11-5 ... 3 HR for each team, with Daley putting two out for us...plus 7 XBH total tonight, 13 hits (and 5 more walks)

Two wins here, and now an 8-game lead over Texas.... Mike Pearse and Anthony Booker have started their rehab stints in AAA. Both have pitched well out of the gate, which is most pleasing. And Kyle Johnson, recently demoted, has had one bad outing and three solid stints, all in relief.... We're batting .306 as a team, with five regulars over .300, and two more close to that.... ELSEWHERE: Trade season is already heating up, with seven deals in the last week. Minnesota has already traded away three pitchers, acquiring a handful of middling prospects. Oakland made another deal while visiting Hawaii, sending injured OF Aaron Blocker to Washington for two prospects.... Baltimore has lost 9 straight, but Milwaukee tops that with a 14-game slide, tying them at the bottom in all of MLB at 31-62.... Rangers OF Mike Olivera had a 21-game hit streak ended, but he still leads the AL at .382, one point ahead of Hawaii's Josh Matson.

......

TL;DR Version: A 10-2 start to July has us a 67-26 overall, best in MLB. The offense still sits 2nd in runs, but I'm probably more happy that our pitching--both starters and relievers--ranks first, in runs and ERA. Although the two guys who started the season very hot, Doug Pederson and Caleb Royer, have cooled off and lost 30 to 40 points off their averages, Josh Matson is now up to .381 and Jules Medici is having the breakout seasonn I expected, at .315/25/68.

......

Time for another draft review, this time from 2035. Our second-ever draft was extremely disappointing...but with one major exception. Take a look:

Round 1, 1st Overall
SS Adam Groff, 21, Vanderbilt. A big, rangy kid who has all the tools: contact, power, range, arm, and speed. He's got plus contact potential, good gap power, and could hit 25-30 HR for us one day. Good discipline and won't strike out a ton. Rates well as a fielder too, and can play SS, 3B, or 1B. He'll fit best at short for now, and probably will end up at third as his range declines. Could swing a good bat in the bigs right now, but needs to develop his patience and his power stroke. He'll start at A, with an eye to moving to AA if he hits well. MLB: 2151 GP, 101.0 WAR, entire career (to date) with Hawaii.

Round 2, 50th Overall
CL Dave Seaman, 21, USC. Perhaps a bit of a reach, taking a reliever in the second round. But this is a weak draft, so I went with BPA, in my mind. Probably won't be a closer at the big league level, but certainly has the chops to be a quality set up guy. Control and second pitch need work. Velo tops out at 95-97 currently. Can also hit, so I might play around with him in the OF during part of a season, and possibly ST next year. His potential at the plate is only slightly above average right now, so I still think his best bet is on the mound. Will go to rookie ball. MLB: nada

Round 3, 76th Overall
SP Dave DeLong, 22, Kansas. Is fairly well developed already, but doesn't have the highest potential. Lefty, groundballer, velo at 93-95. Good fastball, with curve, forkball, and change (if it develops) just behind. Middling stamina, which may limit him in the bigs. Will start season in short A ball. MLB: nada

Round 4, 113th Overall
3B Steve Douglas, 18, high school. Mellow kid, with good contact and gap potential. Little power and plate discipline. May not strike out much tho. Good fielder with a big time arm. Only rated at third, but I may stick him in the outfield to develop some versatility and make him more useful. Rookie ball. MLB: 19 GP, 60 AB, 0.1 WAR

Round 5, 149th Overall
SS Eric Antoniuk, 20, Notre Dame. Currently projects as a mediocre hitting utility infielder. Rated only at short right now, so he might get some forced starts at third to increase his value. All around good marks on defense, so he's got the chops. Speedy. Canadian. Off to S A ball.MLB: nada

Round 6, 185th Overall
3B Jeremy Stevens, 21, Wake Forest. Another utility infielder, with less hitting potential than Antoniuk. Not the most mobile player, but a very strong glove and the best arm in our draft. Third his best position; might be too immobile for short. Short A ball for him. MLB: 229 GP, 0.7 WAR, all with Cleveland

Round 7, 221st Overall
SP Jake Feinstein, 17, high school HS starter, but the pen is his future for us. Two pitches, good curve, decent fastball. Velo at 94. Pitcher ratings project to 12-13 (of 20), but he's a hard worker, so maybe he'll surpass those projections. Not tall, so not a power guy. Will start at S A ball. MLB: nada

Round 8, 257th Overall
OF Brendan Ritchea, 20, Southern Utah. A character guy, super smart with a great work ethic. Ratings fairly average at the plate (poor power). Better fielder, with decent range and arm, and a good glove. Can play all three spots, but best suited for LF. Off to rookie ball. MLB: nada

Round 9, 293rd Overall
SS Jason Berthold, 21, Rock Valley. A dynamite fielder, truly gold glove capability. Great range and glove, and a good arm and DP turning. Highly rated already at second, third, and short. Capable outfielder too. If he ends up hitting a lick, he'll be in the majors one day. If. Starts in rookie ball. MLB: nada

Round 10, 329th Overall
3B Rick DeWeese, 22, UCLA. Another choice between batting or pitching. Above average pitching potential, but has only one pitch currently, and I have no confidence he'll ever develop a second one. Average hitter, little power, mediocre eye. Not much range in the field, but good glove and cannon arm. Good clubhouse guy. Rookie ball. MLB: nada


So how did we do? Well...we can't complain about getting a future Hall of Famer at first overall, someone who was a foundational player and the face of our franchise for well over a decade. Solid A+ there. But as far as "building a team through the draft" goes this effort was a total failure. Only two other players ever made the big leagues, and for fewer than combined 300 games. Looking back on what I wrote about this class, I was rolling a lot of dice on some nice-enough but low-ceiling prospects, none of whom panned out. Then again, this draft class overall--league-wide--was pretty bad. The Mets took Erik Reed 5th overall, and he's smacked 494 HR in a career that's still going, but only three other first rounders topped 20 career WAR. Probably the second-best player after Groff is Cesar Alvarenga, taken by Baltimore in the 3rd round, who's winding down a career that's seen him garner over 2400 hits and 67 WAR. Finally, I should add that our current closer, Robbie Collier, was an 8th round pick by Cincinnati; and STL took pitcher Mike Messinger in the 13th, and he won a Cy Young with us in '41. So maybe I can say we got three good big leaguers after all, ha!