OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - The Turn DP rating—does it do anything?

Isryion · 02-18-2021, 05:12 PM

Hey, GM in question here. Thanks for the compliments, Furious!

So, we did a lot of the same discussing and dismissing of the results in the league that I'm seeing in this thread because, while it's true that double plays aren't easily measured, it's very clear -- especially now -- that if you're parsing (or trying to parse) Furious's data this way, the Turn DP rating is just not significant. And to be clear, I've never said it means nothing, just that it's not significant, especially when you compare it to other ratings almost anywhere in OOTP. I haven't seen anything to prove that wrong to this point (in fact- just the opposite)

I'll just quickly point out, too, that a missed DP isn't the equivalent of an error. An error increases run expectancy and makes the state of the game better for the offense and an out, even if it should have been two, decreases run expectancy and makes the state of the game better for the defense.

FWIW, I started this experiment when the player was in AAA, he was a 4-4-4-1 IF defender (again 1-5 league) and I thought, he can manage any IF position (though not ideal at SS), except for that DP rating, but since he's already maxed out at 3B rating and I want to build another prospect's rating there, let's put him at 2B and see what happens. I was surprised to see his DPs did not look bad compared to his peers and his ZR was excellent. So, I knew I'd have a much stronger lineup if I could play him at second in the bigs and did so. Low and behold, he was fine there. Results showed both individually and overall as a team, the defense was good.

And I think there are two issues with this.

1) The rating doesn't matter as compared to other ratings. Let's assume a 10% difference, heck, let's assume 20%. If this were POW /BB/Cont and the difference between an elite (5) and (1) were just 20%, that would be meaningless. Generally a 1 in a skill in OOTP means the player has it, but they're no good. A 1 Spd/SB isn't stealing bases, a 1 POW isn't hitting more than a couple of HR (and certainly not 20% lets say 40 HR for the 5 guy and 32 HR for the 1 guy). A 1 DP guys should be a lot worse, turning only the easiest of double plays. He'd have poor footwork, slow hands, etc...and we should see that clearly even if his team has tons more opportunities, etc., like we do with every other stat.

2) It means there's really no difference between a 3B and 2B (or middle IF). While I haven't tested it with shortstops, I assume we'd find something similar there unless OOTP codes off the shortstop more for whatever reason (though 2B is usually a tougher turn). Good range but low DP IF were relegated to 3B (provided they had the arm), but that's just not needed any longer.

Anyway, I get that we want to believe the DP rating does something significant and I think it should, but it really doesn't.

02-18-2021, 05:12 PM	#7
Isryion Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 337	Hey, GM in question here. Thanks for the compliments, Furious! So, we did a lot of the same discussing and dismissing of the results in the league that I'm seeing in this thread because, while it's true that double plays aren't easily measured, it's very clear -- especially now -- that if you're parsing (or trying to parse) Furious's data this way, the Turn DP rating is just not significant. And to be clear, I've never said it means nothing, just that it's not significant, especially when you compare it to other ratings almost anywhere in OOTP. I haven't seen anything to prove that wrong to this point (in fact- just the opposite) I'll just quickly point out, too, that a missed DP isn't the equivalent of an error. An error increases run expectancy and makes the state of the game better for the offense and an out, even if it should have been two, decreases run expectancy and makes the state of the game better for the defense. FWIW, I started this experiment when the player was in AAA, he was a 4-4-4-1 IF defender (again 1-5 league) and I thought, he can manage any IF position (though not ideal at SS), except for that DP rating, but since he's already maxed out at 3B rating and I want to build another prospect's rating there, let's put him at 2B and see what happens. I was surprised to see his DPs did not look bad compared to his peers and his ZR was excellent. So, I knew I'd have a much stronger lineup if I could play him at second in the bigs and did so. Low and behold, he was fine there. Results showed both individually and overall as a team, the defense was good. And I think there are two issues with this. 1) The rating doesn't matter as compared to other ratings. Let's assume a 10% difference, heck, let's assume 20%. If this were POW /BB/Cont and the difference between an elite (5) and (1) were just 20%, that would be meaningless. Generally a 1 in a skill in OOTP means the player has it, but they're no good. A 1 Spd/SB isn't stealing bases, a 1 POW isn't hitting more than a couple of HR (and certainly not 20% lets say 40 HR for the 5 guy and 32 HR for the 1 guy). A 1 DP guys should be a lot worse, turning only the easiest of double plays. He'd have poor footwork, slow hands, etc...and we should see that clearly even if his team has tons more opportunities, etc., like we do with every other stat. 2) It means there's really no difference between a 3B and 2B (or middle IF). While I haven't tested it with shortstops, I assume we'd find something similar there unless OOTP codes off the shortstop more for whatever reason (though 2B is usually a tougher turn). Good range but low DP IF were relegated to 3B (provided they had the arm), but that's just not needed any longer. Anyway, I get that we want to believe the DP rating does something significant and I think it should, but it really doesn't.