Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace1234NY
The real life draft is definitely not a random crapshoot lol. You think MLB teams are spending millions of dollars in scouting, analytics, etc. and dedicating countless personnel all for it to be meaningless? They aren't (always) that stupid. If it was truly random, they wouldn't be doing any of that and would spend the resources elsewhere. They've also gotten much better at this than they were in the past. That isn't to say that being picked in the first round is a guarantee of success. But it feels like people overstate the futility of predicting success in the big leagues at all, as if difficulty automatically equals realism. If you have a good scouting department, you can be right more often than you're wrong, which is all you need to be.
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Nobody is saying it's truly and completely and totally random. I think you are overstating the overstatements of others.
Edit: I realize I did call it a complete and total crapshoot. My bad, I did not mean it completely and totally literally. Of course there is a higher chance of nailing the top prospects, and the scouting in today's world could only have been dreamed of just 20 years ago. Even so, for now and the foreseeable future, there is still a huge crapshoot element to it, because prospects are *very* young humans with a lot of physical, emotional, and mental development ahead of them.