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If we were to adjust Clendenon properly for a RHB playing half of his games in Forbes Field in 1966 he goes from 28 HR in 571 AB to 33.5 HR in 571 AB. If we then place him in Wrigley Field for half of his games he goes from 33.5 HR to 40 HR.
Now the question is what are the odds that a player who can hit 40 HR per 571 will hit 50 HR given the same amount of AB in a season. For that we use binomial probability. He would have a 6.25% chance of getting to 50 HR under those conditions. The problem of course is that OOTP needs to be programmed to better adjust the player ratings to account for their home historical stadium (and I have created the import factors for every stadium for every season in a file) and then it needs to properly apply the actual ballpark factors to the probability outcomes in the game.
Now what are the odds that Clendenon will still get to 50 HR if he hits 28 per 571 AB and plays in a neutral stadium? About 1 in 14285 attempts at replaying the season.
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