OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Starting new game soon, ratings settings suggestions invited

Garlon · 01-19-2021, 12:25 PM

1. The values you will see on baseball reference and on other sites for these values may be for runs scored or for the BA/2B/3B/HR. For OOTP everything is based upon events so anything like runs scored need to be translated into component values, which was the purpose of the quadratic formulas as it was the best option when those were created. The baseball reference formula for those factors uses their own formula and will not always match the same values you will get when using data from retrosheet for those parks. For component ratings that you see reported they do not take into account per AB as what is needed for the game and are just some general information about total HR in this stadium against the league average per game, not per AB which is what we need for the game. Everything that I generated was from the per AB values, in fact for HR it is per AB - K so that strikeout totals are not affecting the result.

2. This might be true, but that needs to be looked into as they may not be getting applied in outcomes as they are intended. We need to take a closer look at this. They should just apply to the batter portion of the outcomes as a multiplier.

3. Yes, most people do consider the BA factor to be batting average and not batting average on balls in play, but this is how it has to be because HR are a different calculation and not have it as BABIP means that it would also be affecting HR rates which have their own factor.

4. When I created the original quadratic factors I asked Markus if this was the case and he confirmed this. So 2B and 3B are a subset of BABIP as a factor.

5. Modeling accurate ballpark scoring should turn out the same with quadratic factors or discrete factors when implemented properly. We did not have the discrete data we needed when the quadratic factors were originally made for the game so I made them from the available runs data and put them through the quadratic formula based on individual runs created formulas that account for how runs were generated each season based on singles, doubles, triples, and hr to generate one single value that could be applied to all of these simultaneously to get the desired result.

6. I talked to Silvam about his park factors and he attempted to average many seasons of data using I believe an online resource that was not in a format that OOTP needs to generate outcomes. I put no stock in a calculator based upon dimensions, but people want it for fun I guess. Playing in humid conditions at sea level will be different than in dry conditions 2000 ft above sea level and then there is wind and then there is the distribution of where balls are actually hit, whatever the effect are of all of those differences in environment actually are they will be represented in the real data for stadiums though which is what the discrete factors are based upon (though I do not currently believe that OOTP is applying the factors correctly as is intended for the game). The affect of the weather file should be disabled for historical games because of this.

7. The argument about the home team is bogus and comes from people who do not understand how the factors are calculated. The factors come from the team and their opponents. Teams do not have a home squad and an away squad, bot do their opponents. Additionally, those factors are across three seasons. The idea of building a team around your home ballpark in inherently flawed anyway because you will still play half of your games on the road and if your team is specifically designed for some home advantage then it is specifically designed for some road weakness. The discrete factors use rates, not overall totals of HR as the comparison, so it does not matter if the game is in replay more or if players are on different teams.

8. The historical factors are only designed for the context of a given season with the same players in the league, but the teams they play for make no difference. There are no absolute park factors. Using stadium models out of their original context can be fun and if someone wants to have OOTP generate the factors in that situation that is fine too, but there is no real way to determine the true factors for that.

Try not to get overly concerned about the park factors. I currently prefer the neutral factor file.

01-19-2021, 12:25 PM	#9
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,266	1. The values you will see on baseball reference and on other sites for these values may be for runs scored or for the BA/2B/3B/HR. For OOTP everything is based upon events so anything like runs scored need to be translated into component values, which was the purpose of the quadratic formulas as it was the best option when those were created. The baseball reference formula for those factors uses their own formula and will not always match the same values you will get when using data from retrosheet for those parks. For component ratings that you see reported they do not take into account per AB as what is needed for the game and are just some general information about total HR in this stadium against the league average per game, not per AB which is what we need for the game. Everything that I generated was from the per AB values, in fact for HR it is per AB - K so that strikeout totals are not affecting the result. 2. This might be true, but that needs to be looked into as they may not be getting applied in outcomes as they are intended. We need to take a closer look at this. They should just apply to the batter portion of the outcomes as a multiplier. 3. Yes, most people do consider the BA factor to be batting average and not batting average on balls in play, but this is how it has to be because HR are a different calculation and not have it as BABIP means that it would also be affecting HR rates which have their own factor. 4. When I created the original quadratic factors I asked Markus if this was the case and he confirmed this. So 2B and 3B are a subset of BABIP as a factor. 5. Modeling accurate ballpark scoring should turn out the same with quadratic factors or discrete factors when implemented properly. We did not have the discrete data we needed when the quadratic factors were originally made for the game so I made them from the available runs data and put them through the quadratic formula based on individual runs created formulas that account for how runs were generated each season based on singles, doubles, triples, and hr to generate one single value that could be applied to all of these simultaneously to get the desired result. 6. I talked to Silvam about his park factors and he attempted to average many seasons of data using I believe an online resource that was not in a format that OOTP needs to generate outcomes. I put no stock in a calculator based upon dimensions, but people want it for fun I guess. Playing in humid conditions at sea level will be different than in dry conditions 2000 ft above sea level and then there is wind and then there is the distribution of where balls are actually hit, whatever the effect are of all of those differences in environment actually are they will be represented in the real data for stadiums though which is what the discrete factors are based upon (though I do not currently believe that OOTP is applying the factors correctly as is intended for the game). The affect of the weather file should be disabled for historical games because of this. 7. The argument about the home team is bogus and comes from people who do not understand how the factors are calculated. The factors come from the team and their opponents. Teams do not have a home squad and an away squad, bot do their opponents. Additionally, those factors are across three seasons. The idea of building a team around your home ballpark in inherently flawed anyway because you will still play half of your games on the road and if your team is specifically designed for some home advantage then it is specifically designed for some road weakness. The discrete factors use rates, not overall totals of HR as the comparison, so it does not matter if the game is in replay more or if players are on different teams. 8. The historical factors are only designed for the context of a given season with the same players in the league, but the teams they play for make no difference. There are no absolute park factors. Using stadium models out of their original context can be fun and if someone wants to have OOTP generate the factors in that situation that is fine too, but there is no real way to determine the true factors for that. Try not to get overly concerned about the park factors. I currently prefer the neutral factor file.