Quote:
Originally Posted by Garlon
My suggestion is to use real stats and the neutral ballpark file.
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That is what I'm going to do. I've done a lot of reading and have found statements concerning the following which may be true or may not be true. The whole thing is a mess.
1. The park factors in the file with the game don't match what's on Baseball Reference and other sites. Reason given is the game has a formula that doesn't work with "standard" factors. Well, gee, change the formula not the data!
2. Park factors don't behave as might be intuitively supposed, that is, a factor of 1.050 doesn't mean 5% more of whatever is being rated.
3. Most consider BA to be BA, not BABIP.
4. BA or BABIP may adjust 2B and 3B factors but if so no indication there are adjustments for this in the systems that provide 2B and 3B ratings.
5. One old system uses runs scored as its basis and calculates the quantity of each type of hit needed to produce that number of runs. Question becomes is park factor intended to produce realistic runs or realistic hit types.
6. There's an on line park factor calculator based on a spread sheet by Gambo, calculated factors provided by Silvam, and a calculation of origin unknown to me in the game, none of which produce the same factors.
7. There's an argument that factors based on actual events in a large part measure the home team which may have been designed for the park, and thus are only reliable for historical replays.
8. There's an argument that calculated factors represent what should be rather than what was and are better for games where players are fictional or if real many are not on their historical teams.
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I think there are some things I missed but this should be enough to conclude this is a huge mess. I don't see that progress is possible until its known how the game uses park factors, both in game play and in adjusting player ratings. After that, decisions need to be made concerning the purpose. Is it to produce realistic runs, produce realistic hit distribution, and is that in the context of a historical replay or a game with fictional players or historical players many not on their historical teams.
Anyway, with great disappointment I'm starting my next game with ratings based on real stats and a 1,1,1,1 factor file.