Here I am again, with a necro of another great thread...
I've been away for awhile, it is what I do...
I just wanted to say that I did a lot of statistics work with previous versions, and I think you're pretty much right on the money, Chazzycat!
I also think the immediately previous poster had a very close idea of what the game is doing, but obviously doing it in two paragraphs.
You're right on the edge of things that the devs won't give away, and if they think we get too close, they'd likely switch something in a minor way.
I did want to point something out as far as your analysis goes... you really need to analyze the pitch-by-pitch logs and the spray charts for the players. I also think there may be hidden values relating to each type of pitch. "Some guys just can't hit the curveball..." "He's a dead-red fastball hitter."
There's so much helpful information in this thread as far as game theory goes, so I didn't figure anyone would mind the necro too badly (especially as I'd seen you recently active, Chazzycat!)
Great stuff. Thanks for posting it.