[ThePride87]

Currently working on several worksheets in preparation for a Tigers run.

I sim 30 years ahead into 2050 to ensure all manually placed players are gone and retired...I want a 100% AI generated universe remaining so I know how the game thinks.
Then, season by season, I track team WAR to team wins on a chart. I'm thinking something like 100 years-worth of it....I take the median WAR of each set of wins (for instance, take the median team WAR for all 81-81 teams that existed....that median will represent 81-81 teams). My goal is to prove to myself team WAR and team wins are heavily correlated, which I know they will be. It's to confirm this whole effort is even worth it....if they weren't correlated, WAR would be useless.

I then calculate total $ spent each season from the league on players (player expenses + misc player expenses....if a Chris Davis gets cut, it should still count if the team is paying for him). I divide that number by total WAR accumulated from players that season (add all hitting/pitching WAR from all players that had either 1 PA or 1 BF). That way I know how much 1 WAR costs in the game, which is usually ~$4 Million (which shows why free agency is a bad long-term strategy, you usually pay double-price, and they're usually players who peaked already...on the downswing). In order to make this process easier, I use universal DH, no openers/followers, and no two-way players. It just makes collecting the numbers a lot easier, and for some reason pitcher hitting WAR is wrong in this game....no pitcher gets rewarded for batting well relative to other pitchers, it's always negative.

I also use 100% ratings for this experiment. I need to know what a player's true rating is at every moment. Obviously once I play the actual game, that will go back to Normal.

Then, I record every player who participated in MLB for the season and track their PA/BF, where they played defensively, and whether their rating fluctuated during the season. Any player who only played in one position and never changed ratings-wise, I track their PA/BF and their WAR produced for the year. That will help me know how much WAR/BF or WAR/PA a player at that position and rating produces on average. I then multiply that number by the median amount of PA or BF a starting player at that position produces (i.e. take the median number of the top 30 catcher PA's for a given season). This gives me an idea of how much WAR I can expect out of any player given their current situation, and attach a $-value to them. This will obviously lead to a lot of unused player data, but I need to know when I look at a player's WAR that it wasn't diluted with them playing other positions or changing as a talent.....if I have a 60 OVR 3B, I need to make sure that's all he has been this year, or his WAR may have been altered/tainted.

I'm also tracking age vs productivity to see if I can project prospects' future based on their current age and their potential....but I have a feeling that's going to be near-impossible to really do. Every player is a unique case, it's really hard to tell what they will become knowing the randomness of talent changes/circumstances. The main goal is to know what a player's worth is today with a WAR and $ amount attached to them.