Quote:
Originally Posted by Garlon
Ripken in OOTP made +155 assists at SS that season, but realistically how many could he have made? I made a database of fielding for 1871-2019 that takes into account Team Defensive Efficiency, Team Pitcher Strikeouts, Team Caught Stealing, and Team Groundball Percentage in order to determine how many plays above and below average each player made. Since historical team defensive efficiency is known, team +/- plays can also be determined for every season. After accounting for these variables, I have Ripken at an astounding +53 assists that season. If we value the assist at 0.50 runs, the same as OOTP, that gives us +26.5 runs saved, and on BBR they have Ripken at +23 runs saved that season.
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Ok, this is interesting and it's a start.
That being said, this is an extreme outlier season in OOTP based on the info you posted, and I don't know how much it tells us to simply look at one or two of the biggest outliers.
It's kind of like if in a sim Babe Ruth hits 80 HR's in a season that he actually hit 55 in reality, while the worst regular HR hitter hits 25% less than he did. Unrealistic yes, but possible and unavoidable given random variance and the fact that we're not fudging the numbers to prevent outliers.
So while it's somewhat unrealistic by one definition, it's not imho in and of itself proof of something being broken.
What happens when you do a similar breakdown for one of the more 'typical' high end seasons in OOTP, with a ZR of more like 50-55, one of the Belanger seasons for example?
How many 'extra' assists is OOTP giving the league leader in those seasons compared to actual league leader in the same season?