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Garlon · 12-02-2020, 04:02 PM

I really do not know if they will address this issue. If nobody complains about it then they will not bother. These defensive results really can change everything. Take the Ripken example above with him saving 75 runs in the 1984 season, that is equivalent to 50 homeruns over a season. That is going to affect who wins the division.

The problem is that they really do not know how to translate the fielding stats to ratings. In order to look at fielding stats properly you need to adjust for things like team defensive efficiency, team strikeout rate, and groundball rate in order to really compare player defensive stats against the league average rate for their position. Once you factor all of those then you can get a value for the player defensive efficiency. So if a SS is a 1.05, then he made 5% more plays than average given those opportunities, and since a SS makes about 500 plays per season, that is about 25 plays. Now you need to determine what Arm and Range values will be the baseline for a 1.00, then determine what will generate a 1.05. For example, I suggest that 159 be the average range and arm for a SS, and I think about 5 points of each will increase their plays made by 1%. So if we want a 1.05 player then their range and arm need to be 184. If it turned out that this was still producing results that are too strong then we can lower the multiplier until the results seem better.

Another way to do this is to use zone rating data that is available from baseball reference or fangraphs. We can turn the zone rating into plays made above or below average and do the same thing.

12-02-2020, 04:02 PM	#20
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,254	I really do not know if they will address this issue. If nobody complains about it then they will not bother. These defensive results really can change everything. Take the Ripken example above with him saving 75 runs in the 1984 season, that is equivalent to 50 homeruns over a season. That is going to affect who wins the division. The problem is that they really do not know how to translate the fielding stats to ratings. In order to look at fielding stats properly you need to adjust for things like team defensive efficiency, team strikeout rate, and groundball rate in order to really compare player defensive stats against the league average rate for their position. Once you factor all of those then you can get a value for the player defensive efficiency. So if a SS is a 1.05, then he made 5% more plays than average given those opportunities, and since a SS makes about 500 plays per season, that is about 25 plays. Now you need to determine what Arm and Range values will be the baseline for a 1.00, then determine what will generate a 1.05. For example, I suggest that 159 be the average range and arm for a SS, and I think about 5 points of each will increase their plays made by 1%. So if we want a 1.05 player then their range and arm need to be 184. If it turned out that this was still producing results that are too strong then we can lower the multiplier until the results seem better. Another way to do this is to use zone rating data that is available from baseball reference or fangraphs. We can turn the zone rating into plays made above or below average and do the same thing.