OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Prospects in Historical Leagues to reflect how they were viewed at the time

kriscolic · 11-30-2020, 04:30 PM

I too would love to see (as a lifelong Mets fan) a universe where Fernando Martinez develops into a perennial MVP candidate.

(What follows is probably oversimplified, but in the interest of brevity...) As currently constructed the OOTP development engine is geared toward a singular outcome aka a player's "potential". In order for the game to produce universes wherein Todd Van Poppel and Andy Marte become stars a not-insignificant amount of the time while turning out the way they actually did in most cases, I believe the game would have to be coded to include multiple, distinct possible outcomes. Each player would have to have a range of possible development paths and particular odds of reaching each of them. This would be similar to how projection systems like ZIPS and PECOTA work. Van Popple, for example, would have a, say, 1% chance of becoming Tom Seaver, a 10% chance of becoming Jack Morris, a 40% chance of becoming, I dunno, Pete Harnisch, etc etc.

I have to think that implementing something like this would be a huge undertaking for the developers and is unlikely to happen any time soon. But here's hoping!

11-30-2020, 04:30 PM	#3
kriscolic Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 138	I too would love to see (as a lifelong Mets fan) a universe where Fernando Martinez develops into a perennial MVP candidate. (What follows is probably oversimplified, but in the interest of brevity...) As currently constructed the OOTP development engine is geared toward a singular outcome aka a player's "potential". In order for the game to produce universes wherein Todd Van Poppel and Andy Marte become stars a not-insignificant amount of the time while turning out the way they actually did in most cases, I believe the game would have to be coded to include multiple, distinct possible outcomes. Each player would have to have a range of possible development paths and particular odds of reaching each of them. This would be similar to how projection systems like ZIPS and PECOTA work. Van Popple, for example, would have a, say, 1% chance of becoming Tom Seaver, a 10% chance of becoming Jack Morris, a 40% chance of becoming, I dunno, Pete Harnisch, etc etc. I have to think that implementing something like this would be a huge undertaking for the developers and is unlikely to happen any time soon. But here's hoping!