[ayaghmour2]

After the blockbuster earlier, it became that Lou Kelly was not going to spend much more time in Baltimore. Like most other teams, we were in on Rabbit Day. I thought I had a chance at first, but after seeing what was received, I knew I didn't have a chance. I was more then willing to part with Jim Crawford, a really good starting pitcher, but I did not have a pair of top 25 prosepcts and more to give.

But, there was a silver lining. We've discussed numerous players, so both of us have an idea of the playres we liked. A bunch of names were thrown around in Day talks, so it just came to finding what would make things work here. Kelly is an All-Star, but not nearly on the level of Rabbit Day. Still, this is another guy who would cost a lot.

Kelly has been shopped for most of the offseason, but I know that everyone was just waiting to see where Rabbit Day went, because why give up prospects that could go to Day for Kelly? And while the Day negotations took weeks, Kelly was out the door quickly.

But before discussing the deal, let's talk about Lou Kelly:

A 32-year-old from Pekin, Illinois (you've probably never heard of this city, but I actually know someone who lived there), Lou Kelly was named the 1932 Continental Association Whitney Award Winner and was a member of the inagural 1933 All-Star class. A former 4th Round Pick back in 1923, Kelly debuted in 1927 and after a 75 game sample, he really took off. From 1928-1932 he was worth 6 or more WAR including 8 in 1930 and 8.5 in 1932. Unfortuately, everything cahnged in 1933. He hit just .258/.327/.431 (119 OPS+) with 20 homers and 85 RBI's in 640 trips to the plate. This is nothing like his career .324/.386/.561 (154 OPS+) batting line across almost 1,000 FABL games. He's launched 190 homers and drove in 723 runs and he's actually a plus defender in left, right, and at first.

This trade is all on betting that Kelly can regain his past form. Just from 1930-1932, he led the CA in homers and slugging all three years plus RBI's (1930), OPS (1930, 1932) and WAR (1932) while hitting 30 or more homers with 110 or more RBI's with at least a .300 average with a .400+ OBP, .600+ slugging, and 1.050+ OPS in '30 and '31. He does come with risks being north of 30, but 1932 Tom Taylor is the only Cougar ever to hit 30 or more homers and drive in 100 or more RBI's in the same season. He's the only hitter with 30 homers period, but Kelly has done that five of the last six seasons. Righties can hit homers in Baltimore, so I'm not expecting a power jolt of any means, but I think hitting in our lineup should help him get back on track. He didn't have much protection in Baltimore, but now he'll get to hit between Mike Taylor and Tom Taylor.

Of course, I also have to cover the cost. Because I'll be honest, it is a lot. I had to give up Joe Rainbow, our #3 prospect and a top 50 prospect, Jim Hatfield, and recent 1st Rounder John Barnard. We did also get a 5th Rounder back, but the cost was three potential big leaguers going to Baltimore.

Starting with Rainbow, the former 18th Round Pick in 1931 was rated as the #61 prospect in baseball at the start of the 1932 season and was most recently named #33. Rainbow looked really good in LaCrosse this season, hitting .296/.349/.455 (115 OPS+) with 12 homers and 57 RBI's in 424 plate appearances. The 20-year-old is a really good hitter who features excellent plate discipline and a lot of power. He is extrememly patient and will really wait out pitchers. He had a really rough debut season last year, but he just kept striking out. This year was much different, as he cut his strikeouts from 137 to just 34. starter. I think Rainbow is going to be really good, but in Chicago is 27-year-old Mike Taylor who isn't going anywhere. He's easily the second best catcher in baseball with just T.R. Goins better then him currently. Of course, there are a ton of other really good catcher's and some crazy good youngsters.

Even with Rainbow's potential, I still have Harry Mead, who is considered a top 5 prospect at catcher. Mead is a left handed catcher, which woul be really cool to see. The former 2032 4th Roudner was recently ranked 63rd in the league. Mead projects as a .300 hitter who should be good at judging balls and strikes. He's done a good job of fighting in every at bat, striking out just three times (20) more then he walked (17). Unfortuantely for Mead, with Rainbow in LaCrosee with him, he just got into 88 games. Only 50 of those came behind the plate, as I gave him 24 games at first, 7 in left, and 10 in right just to give him more playing time. The Harvey, Illinois native hit .281/.317/.379 (87 OPS+) with 4 homers and 28 RBI's in 347 trips to the plate. A lot of high schoolers really struggle in C ball, but in terms of WRC+, his 95 was fourth of nine players with 200 or more plate appearances. The three better were the previously mentioned Rainbow (121), our top prospect Billy Hunter (109) who finished the season in San Jose, and Dave Haight (102) who turned 20 in January. Mead will get to start the season as the everyday catcher in La Crosse, but he might end the season up in A ball. And even if Rainbow ends up being the much better player, I'm more then okay with it. Rainbow was a scout pick that I had no control of while I actually selected Mead. Plus Mead is and Illinois native and as a lefty catcher he could really gian popularity.

The next prospecct was 22-year-old 1B Jim Hatfield who was going to be up on the big league roster to start camp. I was going to give him a shot to play in the outfield, but Hatifeld may just stick at first in Baltimore. He had a really strong season in AA, batting .373/.404/.500 (135 OPS+) with 2 homers, 20 steals, and 80 RBI's in 632 plate appearances. I was ready to let the Bandit start the season in AAA and he would rotate between first and all three outfield spots. A former 6th Round pick, Hatfield currently ranks as the 149th best prospect in baseball. He's a natural lefty, but an athletic and capable defender who likely would have been an elite third basemen or shortstop if he threw right handed. Unfortuatnley, he is a lefty, but he has excellent speed and it should translate well to the outfield if needed. He projects to hit for a high average, but he just doesn't have the power generaly associated with a first basemen.

The last piece of the trade was recent 15th Overall Pick John Barnard. In three seasons at Golden Gate the versatile Barnard hit .321/.392/.638 (158 OPS+) with m46 homers, 35 steals, and 132 RBI's. He's a really good defender at short, and he's also played a little third, left, and right. I think he's got a ton of potential, but with Billy Hunter our top prospect and the current #17 rated prospect in baseball locked in as the shortstop of the future, Barnard would have moved to a new position or moved to a new team.

As mentioned, the Cannons made their big move of dumping Rabbit Day and now they moved on from Lou Kelly. The prospects they got fill holes, as they will rank bottom four at first and short where they will have Barnard and Hatfield to fill. They have the 10th rated catcher as well, so all three position have potential huge upgrades by the replacement prospects.

Back to us, our lineup will have a lot of shuffling. I generally won't commit to a starting lineup, but I do have an idea of what positions players are going to be played. I've been shuffling the potential positions in my head, but I have a rough idea of where everyone will play. Kelly will likely spend most of his games at first base, but he'll see time in left and right. This does not mean Bill Ashbaugh will lose playing time, as he will still see the field. And of course, good 'ol Russ Combs is good for two to three injuries a year. Maybe three with how much shortstop he's going to play...