[Bub13]

April 16-18 vs OAKLAND
After last year's 101 wins and division title, MLB says they'll win just 79 games this season. So of course they're off to an 11-4 start, scoring the most runs in the AL and with a +33 run differential already. Hitting 37 HR in 15 games also doesn't hurt, and Felix Reyes already has 9, Ryan Walton 8. And they've accomplished all that despite sitting 11th in average. If they keep pounding dingers, they'll keep winning, period. Pitching, however, will bear watching, as two of their top SP--Jim Schwartz and Conrad Robertson--are out and will be for some time. Three current starters look better suited for the pen, and the staff will give up a lot of walks. Still, it's best to assume that they'll keep on winning, until a time comes when they don't. (So philosophical.) With money to spend and a generous owner, they've continuously made moves to stay relevant, and that includes having the 10th best prospect system. Although there are concerns on that front: the top seven guys are pitchers, and beyond 18-year-old OF Tristan Smith, there's very little to like among their batting prospects. And top guy Tom Baker, who looks like a future ace starter, missed most of last year and is still out for two months following elbow surgery. A big setback, but maybe he'll still make it.

HAW pitchers: RH Chris Liles (1-0, 7.13) / LH Matt Waugh (2-1, 2.35) / RH Mike Bader (0-1, 5.95)
OAK pitchers: LH Chris Larimer (3-0, 2.74) / RH Chris Ronan (2-0, 1.89) / RH Eric Stockton (2-0, 2.08)

#16: WIN 15-4 ... Lynn pokes two out, Daley gets 3 hits, and we put 21 runners on base...Liles is ok, but outpitches his doppelganger Larimer
#17: WIN 5-3 ... Daley homers again, and we make the most of things despite getting outhit 9-7...solid 7 IP for Waugh, giving up just one run
#18: LOSS 2-4 ... held to just 5 hits...we add 5 walks, but can't make it add up...CG for Bader

Dang, no sweep. We at least looked better this series, even if our hitting is still spotty. Fifteen runs in one game, then just 12 hits over the next two.... OF Diego Espino comes off the DL, and OF Josh Hed returns to AAA. Hed played in three games, with only one at-bat.... Pitching notes: Liles is starting to look better, Johnson's ERA is finally below ten, and Bader is still winless. I'll give the starters five games each before considering if Mike Pearse (2.35 ERA in mostly long relief) will be returned to the rotation.... ELSEWHERE: The White Sox remain hot, with a fab 16-2 record right now.... Minny's Jordan Foots lost a 28-game hit streak recently. Several players in both leagues are approaching the 20-game "newsworthy" threshold.... Chisox starter Jasper Cummings has a 0.46 ERA over four starts.


April 20-22 vs TAMPA BAY
Off to an 11-7 start and tops in the East, by three over NY. Really a solid team everywhere, at 5th in runs and 2nd in runs against. 1B Edgar Aranceta is an under-the-radar star who slugged 51 HR last year and is batting .361 this year. RF Vance Wise is closing in on 400 career HR, all with Tampa. The only soft spots are LF (Ken Berman popped 20 HR last year, but is a career .230 hitter), and catcher (Jon Hill doesn't hit much, but is swinging above his weight class at .314), and SS Rich Stoneback (remember him?) is out for six more weeks. The staff looks solid too, although the rotation is a little light in movement, and #5 starter Trevor Kauffman is here only because of a major injury to veteran Travis Calhoun. And closer Bubba Fairweather gets a thumbs-up from me for his name alone. The system ranks only 15th, but there are quality hopefuls at every IF position, and pitcher George Brorby, currently in the TBR bullpen, could be at the top of the rotation next season.

HAW pitchers: RH Josh Irvin (1-1, 3.60) / RH Biff Skiff (1-1, 3.42) / RH Chris Liles (2-0, 6.15)
TBR pitchers: LH John Odom (1-1, 6.61) / RH Carlos Munoz (3-1, 2.05) / RH Trevor Kauffman (0-1, 5.14)

#19: LOSS 4-10 ... Daley hits another one out, Royer goes 3-for-4 with a HR...that's it...Irvin is terrible, as is Ruiz in relief
#20: WIN 7-6 ... crazy game...1-1 tie is broken with 5 Rays runs in the 7th, followed by 4 for us, then tying it in the 9th and winning in the 10th
#21: WIN 9-6 ... who needs pitching? A 9-run 7th is all we need, apparently...HR for Matson and Goff...Liles is dreadful, but the pen goes 6.2 shutout innings

Pitching? What's that? A combined 42 runs here, with some uniformly bad starting pitching, sad to say.... We popped 5 HR in that second game, including two by Ulkini.... Daley is coming around, now batting .271 with 4 HR. He was hitting .214 just 8 days ago. He also just reached 1300 career hits, good for fourth in franchise history. With 38 more, he'll tie Jeremy Dunklee.... We're off on a 12-game road swing next.... ELSEWHERE: Five wins tops MLB for Chisox pitcher Luke Weaver, and CF Zeke de la Rosa is batting .424/10/22, leads MLB with 7 steals and 2.4 WAR, and was just named AL player of the week.... Eight straight losses for Toronto, now 5-16 and the worst in baseball.... Don't you love to see your former stars do well somewhere else? No, me neither. So a big WHATEVER to Shamar Jackson, now 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA for St Louis.... Of course it's early in the season, but there's a nice 3-way tie for first in the AL West, with Hawaii, Oakland, and Texas at 12-9. Seattle, at last and 9-12, is just three games back.


April 23-25 @ CALIFORNIA
At just 10-11, but winners of four straight. Stats aren't good: 11th in runs, 16th in runs against. The franchise is approaching twenty years without a winning season, but despite having a willing (and wealthy) owner, they haven't made a splash in recent off-seasons. This year they added 3B Mike Eskridge--decent contact, solid fielder, zero power--from Brooklyn, and SP George Millard--just average, and 32--from Cleveland. Neither moves the needle much. Plus the prospect system, ranked 12th, has some decent talent but no one who will rise to star level. The best guys they have right now are CF Mauricio Marquez, 22, and DH/1B Ricky Ochoa. Everyone else is a role player, at best. The struggle is real, Angels fans, and so is the never-ending rebuild, apparently.

HAW pitchers: LH Matt Waugh (2-1, 2.10) / RH Mike Bader (0-2, 5.34) / RH Josh Irvin (1-2, 5.48)
CAL pitchers: RH George Millard (0-3, 5.70) / RH Ryan Kuehner (2-0, 3.26) / RH Josh Pomerantz (1-2, 7.36)

#22: WIN 4-0 ... solo shot by Medici and 3 H from Lynn, to go along with Waugh's 2-hitter
#23: WIN 2-0 ... Pederson and Medici go deep for all the offense tonight, and Bader tosses a 3-hitter
#24: WIN 4-3 ... down 2-1, Royer cranks a 3-run blast in the top of the 9th...Groff plays an inning at catcher for some bizarre reason

With the sweep we're now on top of the division, at 15-9. Three teams are tied for second, two games back.... Covington hurt his back in that final game, leading to Groff's strange inning behind the plate. Cov will be out for two weeks; Josh Hed comes back up for the period, and Groff will slide into the backup catcher role, lol. Why? Because the 40-man is full and we only have two catchers on it.... ELSEWHERE: Toronto's now 6-18, making the 9-15 Orioles look decent by comparison. Surprisingly, the O's are joined by the Marlins, favored to win the East but really struggling right now.... Tigers and White Sox lead baseball at 18-6.... Cincy's Cris Frias still leads everyone with 50 K (in 37 IP), to go along with his 28 BB, also tops in the game.


April 26-28 @ CLEVELAND
I can't help thinking that the Indians--at 11-13 and still in the midst of a long rebuild--are trying to construct a team that would do better in the 1970s MLB of my childhood. All the elements are there. Favor contact and speed over power? Check. Have, however, a couple of power bats in the middle of the lineup? Check. All-field-no-hit at 2B, SS, and C? Check. A pitching staff that favors control over strikeouts? Check. In spite of my joking, there are some signs of life by Lake Erie. CF Manny Ayala could start for any team, and youngsters Mike Lee at 3B and Victor Guillen at LF are likewise solid. The pitching staff needs help, tho, as only Taylor Baxter is talented and under 30. So it's a good thing that the 14th-ranked system features three solid SP prospects at the top of the pile, all of whom could (should, really) be in the bigs by next spring at the latest. As for today...they're 11th in offense and pitching, but nothing else really stands out. Former Isle Julian Cardenas has found a home at 2B here, and is batting .333 this season. (Although he just suffered an injury with an unknown return date.) Owner Kurt Dolan is profit-driven, and seems satisfied to field a team that might go .500 and play solid defense. Aiming high, my man. Aiming high.

HAW pitchers: RH Biff Skiff (1-1, 4.45) / RH Chris Liles (2-0, 7.53) / LH Matt Waugh (3-1, 1.62)
CLE pitchers: RH Ryan Ratliff (1-1, 2.75) / RH Manny Vazquez (1-1, 9.00) / LH Taylor Baxter (3-1, 4.25)

#25: WIN 8-7 ... we squander a 6-3 lead in the 8th, but win it on Groff's 2-run single in the 9th...3 hits, 3 RBI overall for the old man
#26: LOSS 2-13 ... 9 hits but we were never in this one...Liles, Pearse, and Ruiz take turns getting shelled
#27: WIN 6-1 ... Waugh keeps rolling, fanning 7 in 6 IP and taking the win...3 hits from Simmons, and Royer's 2-run single early is all we need

Two solid wins, but man did we take the night off in that second game. Liles, in particular, has not been good this season. Aces usually come around, but his start to the season is making me feel even better about adding Waugh in free agency.... Cam Daley lets me know he'd like an extension. His asking price has come down from his $25M/per from last winter, but he still wants $17M for the next seven seasons. Although his numbers have declined slightly over the last three seasons, he can still hit. And he's a fan favorite. But he's almost 30, is fast losing whatever skill he had in the outfield, and so should be limited to DH or 1B in the coming years. Medici and Matson are the current starters at those positions. Medici is young and the star of the future. So how does Daley compare to Matson? Um, not favorably. Matson is signed through '57, with a TO for the two ensuing years. He's also rated better at the plate and on the bases. I really hate trading fan favorites.... ELSEWHERE: Montreal won a crazy 21-12 game over the Giants, a tilt that featured only 26 hits but added 8 HR and 15 walks. Big league pitching was set back decades in one night.... Detroit and Chicago are having a fun race in the AL Central so far, the Sox with 21 wins and the Tigers with 20. Best two records in MLB right now.... The entire NL West, however, is under .500, with Arizona, LA, and Portland pacing the shebang at 13-14.... And of course A's slugger Felix Reyes leads baseball with 15 HR. Anything else wouldn't be right.


April 30 @ TEXAS
Big early showdown against the defending champs. They're 16-11 and a game behind us, tied with Houston for second place. Offense ranks 2nd with 167 runs, while pitching is tops with just 113 runs allowed. The middle trio of William Swanson (.355/10/29), Ryan Boers (.346/7/23), and Eric Robbins (.400/8/20) are just murdering pitching, and everyone else outside of catcher Blake Ball (.155) is also producing. And yes, the staff has been pretty good, but I still don't understand why a solid mid-rotation starter like Greg Buchanan is now the closer, over last year's guy Garrett Slone (1.81 ERA and 38 saves). Buchanan is better than 3/5 of the current rotation, but hey they're the champs so what does my opinion count. Seven guys are currently on the DL, and #1 SP Kevin Cahill has a pending diagnosis... [EDIT: It's a stretched elbow ligament for Cahill. He's out for 11 months.]

HAW pitcher: RH Mike Bader (1-2, 4.06)
TEX pitcher: RH Paul Labbe (2-2, 5.59)

#28: LOSS 2-4 ... we make the struggling Labbe look good, and Kyle Johnson blows another save and sees his ERA balloon to 8.68

It's now a three-way tie on top of the division, with Oakland another two games out. Good stuff for the fans! But for me, not so much.... Johnson has been way, way off in the closer role this season, continuing his struggles from late last-season and the playoffs. It may be time for a switch.... ELSEWHERE: Eh, not much happened in just one day.... Early days yet, but the total ERA of 4.85 in the AL and 4.62 in the NL are the highest marks since the hitting-crazy late '90s. (The 1990s, that is. The 1890s were pretty crazy too, btw.)

......

TL;DR Version: This feels like a transition year, doesn't it? With pending decisions on a couple of stars--Daley and Frederick--and Groff nearing the end of the line, it's no surprise that the offense feels off. And sitting 5th in runs scored only confirms that feeling. All things considered, however, having five regulars batting 20-40 points below their career numbers contributes greatly to the "struggle." It's also odd that our two hitting stars are the rookies: RF Pederson (.358, 9 HR), and 3B Royer (.378, 7 HR). Might be time for some lineup juggling, especially with Frederick due to come off his rehab stint in a couple weeks. Speaking of juggling, I'm going to move Johnson out of the closer spot. That means either Robbie Collier or Ben Germann will get the nod. I'm leaning towards Collier, if only because Germann has never seemed comfortable in his previous stints as closer. Finally, the rotation has been hit-or-miss. Hits? Waugh for sure, with Bader and Irvin throwing well enough. Misses? Liles has been bad, and Skiffington has fallen off of late. Mike Pearse just might get back into the rotation sooner than later.... All in all, I'm not displeased with a 17-11 mark, especially after our slow start. If our hitting comes around, and we can get at least three of the starting pitchers pulling in the right direction all at once, look out.