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Charlie Hough · 11-19-2020, 06:30 PM

As you said, it may be a small sample size. But I wonder whether some of this inflation is happening due to the fact that you're playing with the top 8 teams from each league during a season when there was a fairly significant increase in offense.

That could be creating a double effect where the overall batting talent among the top 8 teams is already higher than the usual distribution you see among teams, and then the expansion year effect may be amplifying their output. Then again, the quality of pitching among the top 8 teams should usually help balance things out.

This may resolve itself as you simulate more games. But it would be better to take a random sample of games in 1977 involving the teams that are in your tournament. Compare your results to the combined scores of those games involving only those teams, and that is a more direct and valid comparison.

11-19-2020, 06:30 PM	#2
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,642	As you said, it may be a small sample size. But I wonder whether some of this inflation is happening due to the fact that you're playing with the top 8 teams from each league during a season when there was a fairly significant increase in offense. That could be creating a double effect where the overall batting talent among the top 8 teams is already higher than the usual distribution you see among teams, and then the expansion year effect may be amplifying their output. Then again, the quality of pitching among the top 8 teams should usually help balance things out. This may resolve itself as you simulate more games. But it would be better to take a random sample of games in 1977 involving the teams that are in your tournament. Compare your results to the combined scores of those games involving only those teams, and that is a more direct and valid comparison. Last edited by Charlie Hough; 11-19-2020 at 06:32 PM.