[Bub13]

Welcome to 2053, and the 20th season of Islanders baseball! You've seen the Anniversary Patch, and you've stayed for the action on the field. Thank you! So let's get going...

March 31-April 2 vs SEATTLE
A last-place, 66-win team from a year ago, the M's added nothing of consequence over the winter. MLB says they lost -0.1 WAR, but considering that SS Nesty Arteaga and his -1.6 WAR retired, that's addition by subtraction. He'll be replaced by veteran Sam Moore, who missed all of '52 after being signed away from Toronto. Two rookies made the starting lineup: RF Mike Bruno and 3B Eric Collier. Neither provokes much reaction, positive or negative. The rotation looks pretty shallow, and there are two SP on the DL. New closer Marco Mendez gets a bump up from middle relief, but outside of Adam Krull (last year's closer), the pen doesn't inspire much praise either. The good news is that the rebuilding franchise has the league's #3-ranked prospect system, led by #4 overall Ron Rivera, a P/CF who really should focus on pitching, as he's a primo talent there. OF Paul Stough, at #10, smacked 39 HR in A ball last year, and could be in the lineup by the all-star break. With a 29th-ranked budget and 25th-placed payroll, they're not going to spend their way back to relevance, but a strong prospect pool could get them there in a few years time.

HAW pitchers: RH Chris Liles (10-7, 2-81) / LH Matt Waugh (16-10, 3.18) / RH Mike Bader (14-10, 3.61)
SEA pitchers: RH Erik Ramey (10-13, 5.25) / RH Dan Welker (10-14, 5.56) / RH Chris Grauer (8-7, 4.70)

#1: WIN 10-4 ... 4 HR out of the gate, including 2 by Pederson and a 3-run shot from Royer...Liles goes 8, and Pearse tosses his first IP in over a year
#2: WIN 8-2 ... Pederson and Medici homer again; Simmons goes 4-for-5 with 3 doubles...7 IP for Waugh, gets his first Islanders win
#3: LOSS 5-8 ... Bader gets roughed up for 5 early runs...we manage just 6 hits, probably exhaustion from the first two games...Royer homers

The great philosopher Meat Loaf once said "Two out of three ain't bad" and he was right.... Great start (.556/3/6) for Pederson. Yes, it's just three games, but it beats the alternative.... Only long man Mike Pearse and two back-end RP have seen action from the pen so far.... ELSEWHERE: Texas dropped their first two to Oakland, but then laid down a 20-6 pasting in the closer. Houston swept California and leads the West by a game early on.... Four other AL teams also swept their opening series; no NL teams did.... 4 HR and 9 RBI for Pittsburgh's Sean Friedman, leading everyone.


April 3-5 vs TEXAS
Here's the early test: I expect the defending champs to be battling us all season long. The league's best offense returns everyone but catcher Juan Espinoza, gone to Richmond. (Replacement Brad Ball isn't much, tho.) Into the lineup comes promising rookie LF Mike Olivera, and free agent OF Nate Atwater (on the DL however). LF Ted Miller smacked 23 HR in 98 games last year and is now on the bench. That's a deep squad. MVP William Swanson is looking to repeat, and guys like Ronnie Halverson, Eric Robbins, and Omar Gurrola would star on any team. Pitching might become an issue, with an SP and their CL (plus two other RP) all out for at least a month. They added SP Jesus Aguilar from Seattle and Bill Butts from Brooklyn, but they're strictly back-end guys. Former SP prospect Greg Buchanan is now the closer, which seems like a mistake. But they won it all last year, so who can complain? The rest of the pen has some hard throwers, plus two veteran former starters, so there's depth if things start to go sideways. The kiddo system ranks 23rd, with only IF Javier Tzoc (#18) a sure-fire big leaguer. He's on the big squad, and should push 2B Mike McNeill (great D, so-so hitting) for playing time.

HAW pitchers: RH Josh Irvin (14-5, 3.95) / RH Henry Skiffington (15-12, 4.67) / RH Chris Liles (1-0, 4.50 in '53)
TEX pitchers: RH Jesus Aguilar (5-19, 7.12) / LH Bill Butts (6-10, 5.78) / RH Kevin Cahill (0-1, 2.57)

#4: WIN 3-2 ... another day, another Pederson HR...Groff makes his first start, goes 0-for-2 with a walk...first appearances for the top of the pen, too
#5: LOSS 6-7 ... a 4-run 9th ruins an otherwise happy day, with Johnson blowing up for all the runs...good start for Skiff tho
#6: WIN 16-8 ... pitching, who needs it...we're outhit 18-13 tonight, but also take six walks...HR for Pederson, Medici, and Covington gets his first

Gotta love early season stats: we've scored 48 runs in 6 games and we don't lead the AL.... Doug Pederson has gone crazy so far; let's see what the next three weeks brings, waiting for Frederick's return from the DL.... Ditto the good start for Caleb Royer at third. My plan to platoon him with Ulkini hasn't worked out yet due to the latter's injury, but Lua has still gone 2-for-2 in a PH role.... And Groff is 0-for-2 with a walk and two strikeouts. He is sulking big time too. Sigh.... ELSEWHERE: Tampa, Houston, and Detroit have started 6-0. California and Cleveland are 0-6.... Two hitting streaks dating back to last season ended this week: Dillon Ritter (ARI) saw his 23-gamer end, while Jake Glowski (CAL) lost his 22-game stint conclude.


April 6-8 vs MIAMI
The homestand continues with a team predicted to win 91 games and likely keep their playoff streak alive. The lineup remains largely unchanged, being led by Toshi Shimabukuro (.334/41/107) and five others who smacked over 25 HR last year. Their pitching should be improved, given that they moved Wilhelm-trophy winning closer Dwaine Webb into the rotation, and now have 22-game winner Victor Nunez in the #5 slot. They'll surely improve upon their 2-4 start, largely due to poor hitting (just .212) thus far. The annual managerial carousel has brought round Arby Fields, a long-time bench coach, getting his first shot at managing above the A ball level. His contract is for this year only, so I'd recommend he doesn't buy a house just yet. Budget and payroll are top ten, but the prospect system is 32nd, near the bottom. They do have #43 ranked Willie Maya, to whom they paid out a whopping $29M three years ago. He looks pretty good, but should probably work for free for a few more years, let the budget catch up a bit.

HAW pitchers: LH Matt Waugh (1-0, 2.57) / RH Mike Bader (0-1, 9.00) / RH Josh Irvin (0-0, 0.00)
MIA pitchers: RH Dwaine Webb (0-1, 13.50) / RH Mike Messinger (0-1, 7.71) / RH Jason Simon (0-0, 1.29)

#7: WIN 2-0 ... four-hit shutout by Waugh...only five hits for us, with Royer's HR the big noisemaker...Groff starts, gets a hit and an RBI
#8: LOSS 7-8 ... Bader struggles through 6.2, yielding 11 hits, and Ruiz blows it with 3 runs in the 9th...HR for Pederson and Groff
#9: LOSS 2-4 ... a meh game, with mediocre hitting and boring pitching...only one XBH, and we struck out 11 times

This subpar outing drops us to 5-4 and a tied for third with Texas.... We're fourth in runs and seventh in runs allowed, and a +16 differential.... Diego Espino still has an unknown return date from his leg injury, so we put him on the DL and recall Josh Hed.... We also waived/DFAd infielder Jesus Lopez last week. No one claimed him, but because he has a big-league salary we can't send him to AAA? What? Okay then, so we traded him to Montreal for 21-year-old IF prospec Bobby Cordola. Cordola has poor hitting ceilings, but is a great fielder and a hard worker. With luck, he'll be a utility IF one day. Which is what Lopez is right now, only six years older and a better hitter. Good luck to us.... ELSEWHERE: No unbeatens remain, but the White Sox have won six in a row to jump to 8-1. Houston is also 8-1. Boston trails the pack at 1-8.... Cincy's Cris Frias is still gunning 'em down, with 25 K in 15 IP so far.


April 10-12 @ KANSAS CITY
It's been a long rebuilding process in KC, with only three winning seasons in the last decade-and-a-half, and two consecutive last-place finishes. MLB says this year will be no different, and they are off to a 3-6 start. The talent is still kind of thin, but it's coming around. Leadoff batter Dan Dellinger has two batting crowns to his credit, and can still single you to death; youngsters Tom Esposito, Tim Chapman, and Julius Burrows are a decent core. (Those last two came from us last year, you might remember.) There's not much else in the lineup yet, however, and top prospect SS Jose Valdez (an excellent hitter but a tin glove) is still at least a year away. They should fare better on the mound, with some decent, home-grown talent in the rotation, and a steady-if-unspectacular bullpen. Frankly, there is more pitching talent on paper than has been shown on the field so far, but this year could be different. And the fifth-ranked prospect system also has two excellent young arms--Steve Scibek and Tony Waters--that could develop into the ace this staff needs. New manager Dario Agrazal has two titles to his credit, and if owner J.J. Glass will unloose the purse strings a bit, the Royals could be good again very soon.

HAW pitchers: RH Biff Skiff (0-0, 3.38) / RH Chris Liles (1-0, 6.23) / LH Matt Waugh (2-0, 1.13)
KCR pitchers: RH Jorge Ornelas (0-1, 5.14) / RH Adam Grossman (0-1, 6.75) / RH Ryan Swan (1-1, 4.91)

#10: WIN 2-0 ... Skiff's turn tonight to toss a 4-hit shutout...we muster just 7 hits, but Daley does sock his 1st HR of the season, a 2-run shot
#11: WIN 10-7 ... we break out with 12 hits and a trio of HR...4 RBI for Royer...Liles struggles again, pulled in the 5th
#12: LOSS 4-5 ... a pair of HR in the 2nd is all KC needs to beat us here...we get close in the 8th, but Groff grounds into a DP to end any threat

An okay series, at least we took two again. Up to 7-5 now, two games behind Oakland.... Offense is up to 3rd now, but we've dropped from 5th in H to 9th, of course. Still first in steals, tho.... Cam Daley, whom I've been ordered to extend, is really struggling: .191/1/5. Rookie catcher Covington is also flailing a bit, at .194.... Kyle Johnson finally has his ERA under 20. Congrats, young man.... ELSEWHERE: Race To The Bottom News: Boston and Baltimore are both 2-10. At the other end, the Chisox are now 11-1, winners of 9 straight.... Philly LF Rick Logston has reaced 2 WAR, batting .513/9/13.


April 13-15 @ HOUSTON
The recent resurgence has sputtered, with four seasons of bottom-half finished in the West. But they're 8-4 this year, with #2 hitting and #3 pitching so far. Stud 1B Jose Renteria has knocked the stuffing out of everything, at .533/8/21. Three others are hitting over .340, more than making up for 47-HR guy Ricky Silva's slow start (.229/1/4). Former Isles washout Tim Ciotta has been solid at the top of the rotation, and the bullpen sports a fun little 0.45 ERA. I'll be curious to see if they can sustain this strong start: Renteria and Silva are solid hitters, but the rest of the lineup is pretty squishy, tbh. Owner Jim Crane is a cheapskate, and despite sitting on a pile of cash he's showing no sign of re-upping the 28-year-old Silva, which is a huge concern for Astros fans.

HAW pitchers: RH Mike Bader (0-1, 7.71) / RH Josh Irvin (0-1, 4.15) / RH Biff Skiff (1-0, 1.59)
HOU pitchers: RH Chris James (0-0, 3.86) / RH Alex Trujillo (1-0, 4.38) / LH Pat Wise (1-1, 3.12)

#13: LOSS 3-4 ... Johnson is off again, giving up a GWHR in the 11th...Goodloe knocks his 1st HR, Medici his 5th
#14: WIN 6-3 ... Royer and Covington go deep, and tweaking the lineup results in 10 hits and a pile of XBH
#15: LOSS 2-8 ... we outhit them 14-9, but they manage six XBH (and 3 HR), while we get just one...4 hits for Simmons

Ugh, still muddling along. Kinda hard to see what's holding us back, as it seems like something different each night.... Maybe it's that, despite overall solid hitting numbers, only two regulars are batting over .280, and five starters have hit zero or one HR.... Closer Johnson is also struggling, with a 12.27 ERA, two losses, and two blown saves.... Despite leading the league in steals, we're way back in 16th in overall baserunning, whatever that means.... ELSEWHERE: Sadly, Baltimore and Boston both won some games, and are now 5-10 and 4-11, respectively.... Houston's Renteria went off against us, is the first batter to reach 10 HR on the year. He tops the triple crown stats, at .500/10/27.... I neglected to mention this off-season that all-time great Vinny "Hooch" Vargas retired after an awesome 19-year career. He was a three-time MVP, won nine Silver Sluggers, and went to ten all-star games. He was a real nemesis to us when he played with Oakland, from '34 to '45, and then had five solid years with the Dodgers. He wound up with 2812 hits, 565 HR, 1618 RBI, a .319 average, and 109 WAR. He'll probably make it to the Hall one day.

......

TL;DR Version: A middling 8-7 start to the season has us in third place, three games behind the A's, currently in first. We're 4th in runs, with 86, third in average at .290. But like I said above, we're not getting solid production throughout the lineup, like we usually do. Lynn, Daley, Matson, Goodloe, Simmons: all are hitting 30 to 50 points below their career averages, and between them they've hit just two HR. The kids have been alright, however: Medici at .280/5/14; Pederson has slowed but is still at .467/7/16; Royer .370/5/16; Covington .2503/10. Pitching rarnks 6th, but is likewise hit-or-miss. Liles and Bader have been mostly bad-to-average, and closer Johnson has been plain-old bad. Most of the rest of the staff has been solid, and pitching has largely kept us in games when we're not hitting. With Josh Frederick due off the DL in a week, I'm trying to decide what moves I'll make in the lineup. I might put him on rehab in AAA, but then what? If Pederson is still hitting, do I bench Daley, who is not? Fun stuff.